锡周报报告-20250425

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term tin price has been fluctuating around the 260,000 yuan line, and there is pressure on short - term upward movement [5][40]. - The supply side is generally tight, with no significant changes in the short term. The full - scale resumption of normal mining in the Wa State is expected to take about two months. The domestic consumption has certain resilience, but the short - term fundamentals lack strong driving forces, and the market is mainly driven by macro - sentiment [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The US comprehensive data is better than expected, which has an impact on the price. The European comprehensive PMI is almost zero - growth, and Germany and France are in recession. The initial jobless claims in the US last week led to an increase in the orders of durable goods, which was higher than expected [5]. - A Federal Reserve official hinted that interest rate cuts might be possible in April, but emphasized maintaining patience in the face of high uncertainty [5]. - The supply side is generally tight. The resumption of work in the Wa State's mines is still in progress, and it is expected to take about two months to fully resume normal mining. The domestic consumption has certain resilience, and the inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level. The short - term fundamentals lack strong driving forces, and the market is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. The short - term tin price is oscillating around 260,000 yuan, and there is pressure on short - term upward movement [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - Bullish factors: Domestic consumption has certain resilience, the US dollar index is at a low level, and market sentiment has improved [7]. - Bearish factors: There is an expectation of an increase in tin ore supply, and domestic inventory is at a high level [7]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Supply and demand balance: In February 2025, the global refined tin production was 27,700 tons, consumption was 26,600 tons, with a supply surplus of 1,100 tons. From January to February 2025, the global refined tin production was 52,300 tons, consumption was 54,800 tons, with a supply shortage of 2,500 tons. In February 2025, the global tin ore production was 25,600 tons. From January to February 2025, the global tin ore production was 51,200 tons [9]. - Price and basis: This week, the tin futures price rose slightly, the spot price increase was greater than that of the futures, the basis of Shanghai tin was 1,190 yuan/ton, changing from a discount to a premium; the LME tin premium was 169 US dollars/ton, and the discount range narrowed [12]. - Smelter operating rate: As of April 18, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi was 56.96%. In Yunnan, the import of tin ore has been declining, and the raw material inventory cycle has been compressed. In Jiangxi, the supply of scrap has a structural break, and the recycling volume of recycled tin has decreased [15]. - Tin ore import: From January to February, the domestic cumulative import of tin ore was 158,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 50.15%. The import from Myanmar decreased by 81.07% year - on - year, and the imports from Congo (Kinshasa) and Australia also decreased [19]. - Refined tin production: In March 2025, China's refined tin production was 15,080 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The supply chain of tin concentrate and scrap tin is tight, restricting production capacity [21]. - Tin import and export: From January to February 2025, the cumulative import of unforged non - alloy tin was 4,203 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6%. The cumulative export was 4,504 tons, a year - on - year increase of 124%. In February, tin ingot trade turned into a net export of 504 tons [26]. - Downstream consumption: In March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and the new energy vehicle sales accounted for 42.4% of the total vehicle sales. By the end of March, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity increased by 14.6% year - on - year, and the solar power generation installed capacity increased by 43.4% year - on - year. In March, the domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 124% year - on - year [32]. - Tin solder production: In March, the tin solder production of domestic sample enterprises was 7,428 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.07%, and the total sample operating rate was 70.90%. The expected production in April is about 8,500 tons, an increase of 14.43% compared with March, and the expected operating rate is 75.27%, an increase of 6.16% compared with March [34]. - Inventory: The latest inventory level of LME tin last week was 2,810 tons, the lowest in the past two years. As of the week of April 18, the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory decreased by 7.76% week - on - week to 9,571 tons [37]. 3.4后市研判 - The short - term tin price will continue to oscillate around the 260,000 yuan line, and there is pressure on short - term upward movement [40].