Ø 观点：在全球原油市场维持供应过剩的背景下，2026年油价运行中枢预计将承压。基准情景下，我们预计WTI原油价格可能下探 50美元/桶的关键支撑，对应国内SC原油期货价格或测试380元/桶附近。 Ø 逻辑：供应过剩仍是当前的主要逻辑，这一格局由"供应稳步增长"和"需求弹性不足"共同决定。一方面，在OPEC+增产及非 OPEC+国家产量增加的现实背景下，全球原油产量仍维持稳步增加，两者共同保障了全球产量的稳步增长，但受投资约束与资源 条件限制，整体增速预计将较往年放缓。另外一方面，随着全球经济步入低增速周期，原油需求更多体现为刚性，有限需求增 量难以扭转供应过剩的局面。在此背景下，油价整体将延续偏弱运行的态势，库存周期的将主导油价的阶段性走势，走势大概 率呈现"先抑后扬"的格局。一季度作为传统的消费淡季，将导致上半年全球原油市场面临显著的累库压力，油价预计震荡寻 底，二是下半年随着季节性需求回暖，叠加OPEC+可能根据市场变化调整产量政策，供需矛盾有望边际缓和，从而为油价提供支 撑。 Ø 风险点：地缘政治因素将继续作为2026年油价波动的核心扰动项，但其影响方向可能出现分化。一方面，中东局势存在恶化的 潜在风 ...

焦煤焦炭年度报告（2026） --政策托底下的供需再平衡 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-12-31 04 后市研判 行情回顾 PART 01 2025年双焦盘面呈现"先跌后涨再横盘宽幅震荡"格局 1、上半年，供需失衡下，呈现单边下行。国 内焦煤产量保持较快增速，供给持续宽松。下 游钢材需求恢复缓慢，钢厂和焦化厂普遍采取 主动降低原料库存的策略。这导致上游煤矿持 续累库，加剧价格下跌。 2、自7月起，市场在政策驱动下的强势反弹。宏 观"反内卷"及煤矿超产核查等政策密集出台， 市场预期供应将系统性收缩，情绪迅速转向乐观。 在价格上涨过程中，焦化厂和钢厂的焦炭库存均 处于年内低位。低库存环境下，"买涨不买跌" 的心态放大了补库需求。宏微观共振下，价格快 速拉升。 3、进入"金九银十"需求成色一般。之后又进入行业传统淡季，下游 钢厂利润不佳，补库意愿一般，同时铁水产量有所下滑，对双焦的需求 形成压制。供应端以蒙煤为主的进口焦煤保持高通关量，有效补充了国 内供应，上游库存压力再度显现。但年末中央经济工作会议以及《煤炭 清洁高效利用重点领域标杆水平和基准水平（2 ...

铝年报 铝价中枢有望稳步上 价中枢有望稳步上 移 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-12-26 中航期货 目录 01 后市 研判 02 行情回顾 03 宏观 面 04 基本 面 | 几 | 为 | 继 | 国 | 面 | 铝 | 市 | 注 | 境 | 已 | 动、 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 化 | 端 | 点， | 关 | 号 | 环 | 氧 | 求 | 变 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 性 | 信 | 点 | 长 | 需 | 本 | 量。 | 重 | 的 | 动 | 增 | 成 | | | | | | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a wide - range oscillation. The international crude oil price rebounded due to the tense US - Venezuela relations, strengthening cost support and causing concerns about supply tightening at the raw material end, which supported the asphalt market. However, the weak fundamental situation of asphalt restricted the rebound height as the开工 rate and weekly output of domestic asphalt sample enterprises increased, and both factory and social inventories rose, indicating great pressure on downstream demand. In the future, with the expectation of supply surplus, there is significant pressure for continuous strengthening of crude oil. Although the tense US - Venezuela relations may cause disturbances, considering the substitution of domestic raw material sources, the actual impact may be limited, mainly reflected as a bullish sentiment, and the upward driving force is weak. It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate widely [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: The US has increased efforts to seize Venezuelan oil tankers; the negotiation of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan continues; the EIA data release is postponed to next week [7][8]. - **Key Data**: As of December 24, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise's开工率 was 31.3%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous statistical period. As of December 26, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 55.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.6 tons; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 59.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons; the social inventory was 74.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7 tons [8]. - **Main Views**: The asphalt market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure near 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton of the BU2602 contract [8][9]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Disturbances at the raw material end; the implementation of winter storage policies provides a floor price support for the market [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: Weakening demand; a month - on - month increase in supply [12]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Initial Jobless Claims**: On December 24, the US Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending December 20 dropped to 214,000, lower than the expected and previous value of 224,000, indicating no obvious pressure in the labor market [13]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January 2026 is 15.5%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 84.5%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 42.2%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 51.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 6% [13]. - **Trump's Statement**: Trump hopes that the Fed chairman he nominates will cut interest rates when the economy is good [13]. - **US - Ukraine and US - Russia Meetings**: The US - Ukraine meeting in Miami from December 19 - 21 focused on a "20 - point peace plan" draft, and Zelensky confirmed the completion of the initial draft. The US - Russia meeting in Miami from December 20 - 21 was considered "productive and constructive". The market expects geopolitical risks to ease, and there are concerns that Russian oil inflow after a cease - fire agreement may exacerbate supply surplus and suppress oil prices [14]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: As of December 26, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 55.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.6 tons, with a decrease in refineries and increases in Sinopec, CNPC, and local refineries. As of December 24, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise's开工率 was 31.3%, up 3.7 percentage points, mainly due to raw material disturbances, but it is expected to decline as the downstream is in the off - season. Supply is expected to remain at a low level for the year [16][24]. - **Demand**: As of December 26, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 40.4 tons, an increase of 5.4 tons from the previous statistical period, showing a phased rebound due to winter storage demand and refinery restarts, but still restricted by weak northern demand and high inventory. As of December 26, the domestic modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 7.1%, down 0.56 percentage points from last week, and it is expected to continue to decline seasonally [25][28]. - **Inventory**: As of December 26, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise's factory inventory was 59.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons, with increases in East and South China and decreases in Shandong and Northwest China. The social inventory was 74.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7 tons, ending the destocking trend since August, indicating weakening downstream demand [34][42]. - **Spread**: As of December 26, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 399 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton. As of December 25, the domestic asphalt basis was 95 yuan/ton. As of December 24, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 51.3. Due to strong oil prices, the cracking spread decreased, and the falling spot price led to a weaker basis, indicating pressure in the spot market [51]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The asphalt market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation. Geopolitical tensions and winter storage policies provide some support, but the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. Supply pressure has increased, and inventories have risen. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure near 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton of the BU2602 contract [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, steel prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies on the supply side. Demand is unlikely to improve significantly, but with the continuous implementation of policies such as anti - involution and a warm macro - environment, steel prices may form a bottom, with a possible fluctuation range of (2800, 3500), showing a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half [83][85]. - In 2026, the oversupply of iron ore will become more prominent, but the decline in ore prices is expected to be tortuous. The supply is expected to increase significantly, demand may decline slightly, and inventory is likely to accumulate at a high level. The price fluctuation range may be (600, 850), with high prices in the first quarter, a decline in the second quarter, and more downward pressure in the second half of the year [86][88]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Steel - In 2025, steel prices showed a pattern of decline - rise - decline again. From January to June, prices dropped due to factors such as overseas trade frictions, weak domestic demand, and falling raw material costs. In July, prices rose driven by anti - involution policies. From August to December, prices oscillated downward due to weak demand and inventory accumulation. For example, rebar mostly traded in the range of 3000 - 3200 [5][8]. 3.1.2. Iron Ore - In 2025, iron ore prices first declined, then rebounded, and finally oscillated. From January to June, prices fell due to factors like overseas recession expectations and rumors of crude steel production restrictions. In July, prices rebounded due to anti - involution policies and strong demand. From August to December, prices oscillated at a high level but with gradually lower peaks [9][12]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1. US Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75% in December 2025, the third cut this year. It also plans to start a monthly short - term Treasury purchase program of about $40 billion. The dot - plot predicts one 25 - basis - point cut in 2026 and 2027 each [13]. 3.2.2. US Economic Indicators - The US employment market is weak. In November, non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. Inflation in November was significantly lower than expected, with CPI rising 2.7% year - on - year and core CPI rising 2.6% year - on - year [17][18]. 3.2.3. China - US Relations - China - US relations are currently in a relatively stable period. After rounds of negotiations, some tariffs have been cancelled or suspended. However, there are still uncertainties, and strategic competition between the two countries persists [23]. 3.2.4. Domestic Credit and Economy - In November, new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, with corporate net financing being the main support. New RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, with weak demand from residents and enterprises. Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 set a tone for more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, aiming to expand domestic demand [25][29]. 3.3. Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1. Terminal Demand - Real estate is still at the bottom, dragging down building material demand. In 2025, real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market, but the effect was limited [30][31]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to be stable in 2026. In 2025, the growth rate of infrastructure investment turned negative, affected by factors such as fiscal front - loading and project reserves [33][34]. - Manufacturing investment may maintain some resilience but with industry differentiation. In 2025, it was supported by exports and policies, with a growth rate of 1.9% from January to November [36][38]. - The automobile industry had a good performance in 2025, with production and sales reaching new highs. In 2026, it may face some challenges due to policy changes. The home appliance industry maintained low - growth [39][42]. - The construction machinery industry is expected to maintain growth in 2026, and the shipbuilding industry continued to be prosperous in 2025 [43][45]. - Steel exports were an important support for demand in 2025. In 2026, exports may be restricted by policies in the short term [46][47]. 3.3.2. Steel Supply - In 2025, China's crude steel and pig iron production decreased year - on - year. In 2026, steel production is expected to be further adjusted according to demand and profit, with capacity likely to shrink [54]. 3.3.3. Steel Profit - In 2025, steel mill profits were high in the first half and low in the second half. In 2026, mills are expected to maintain a thin - profit state, affected by factors such as demand and cost [57]. 3.3.4. Steel Production - In 2025, rebar production was at a low level, while hot - rolled coil production was high. In 2026, this differentiation pattern is expected to continue [60]. 3.3.5. Steel Inventory - In 2025, steel inventory pressure emerged in the second half. Rebar inventory was relatively neutral, while hot - rolled coil inventory pressure was large. In 2026, attention should be paid to the supply pressure of plates [63]. 3.3.6. Steel Price Spread - In 2025, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar prices first widened and then narrowed, reflecting changes in the supply - demand structure [64]. 3.3.7. Iron Ore Supply - In 2025, global iron ore shipments increased slightly. In 2026, global iron ore supply is expected to grow significantly, with about 2000 tons of incremental supply from major mines and strong incremental expectations from non - mainstream mines [68][88]. 3.3.8. Iron Ore Demand - In 2025, iron ore demand was resilient, but in 2026, it is expected to decline slightly due to the implementation of crude steel production control policies [79]. 3.3.9. Iron Ore Inventory - In 2025, port inventory of iron ore was high, and steel mill inventory was low. In 2026, port inventory is expected to remain high, and steel mills will continue to purchase on - demand [82]. 3.4. Market Outlook 3.4.1. Steel - In 2026, steel demand is expected to be weak, but steel prices may oscillate and bottom out due to policies and a warm macro - environment. The price may fluctuate between 2800 and 3500, with a possible pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half [85]. 3.4.2. Iron Ore - In 2026, the iron ore market will face an oversupply situation, but the decline in ore prices will be tortuous. The price may fluctuate between 600 and 850, with high prices in the first quarter, a decline in the second quarter, and more downward pressure in the second half of the year [88].

原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-12-26 重点数据 （1）美国至12月12日当周EIA原油库存 -127.4万桶，预期-106.6万桶，前值-181.2万桶。 （2）美国至12月12日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -74.2万桶，前值30.8万桶。 （3）美国至12月12日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 24.9万桶，前值24.8万桶。 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 05 后市研判 报告PA摘RT要 01 （1）美国加大扣押委内瑞拉油轮的力度。 （2）俄乌和平方案谈判持续推进。 （3）EIA数据推迟至下周公布。 市场焦点 主要观点 受美委紧张关系升温的影响，本周油价触底反弹，整体呈现震荡偏强的走势。美国政府于周末扣押一艘未受制裁 的油轮，此前美国总统特朗普宣布将对受制裁的油轮进出委内瑞拉进行封锁，此举引发市场对美国政府进一步加大限 制措施的担忧，地缘风险溢价推动油价上行，但有市场消息称，目前委内瑞拉石油装载活动仍以接近正常的速度进行， 在一定程度限制油价上行空间。综合来看，原油供应过剩的预期仍是 ...

橡胶年度报告（2026） --供给弹性降低，需求驱动价格空间 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 行情回顾 PART 01 橡胶盘面2025全年宽幅震荡 4月初受美国"对等关 税"冲击全线大跌 年初供应紧张推至 年内高位 宏观冲击淡化，供需主 导，缺乏突出矛盾，震 荡运行为主。 天然橡胶基本面情况 PART 02 原料价格区间震荡运行 中航期货 2025-12-26 目录 01 行情回顾 02 基本面情况 03 EUDR政策情况 04 后市研判 ➢ 2025上半年天然橡胶主产区开割，全球供应增加预期，叠加美对等关税政策扰动，原料价格高位松动，胶 水价格下行明显。下半年的天气扰动因素仍然存在，台风降雨天气对割胶产生影响，同时泰柬地缘冲突， 使得泰国原料价格坚挺，原料端价格止跌企稳。展望2026，核心逻辑是主产国供应弹性降低，全球橡胶 种植面积增速下降，泰国树龄结构老化，印尼转向种植其他高价值作物，均可能制约产量增长。东南亚 产区的降雨、干旱等异常天气仍是影响短期割胶和原料释放的关键变量。此外，泰柬边境的地缘冲突也 可能对局部供应产生扰动。总体而言，长期供应潜力的下降可能为价格提 ...

铜年报 供需紧平衡 铜价继续维持高位 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-12-26 目录 01 后市研判 01 后市研判 02 行情回顾 02 行情回顾 03 宏观面 04 基本面 后市研判 PART 01 宏观方面，美联储12月降息落地，虽然美国11月非农就业数据略超预期，但失业率攀升至四年高位，市场判断这不会改变美联储的宽松基调，海外流 动性环境继续支撑风险偏好。国内方面，中央经济工作会议等重磅会议已为2026 中央经济工作会议等重磅会议已为2026年定下"稳增长、扩内需"的清晰基调，具体政策虽待落地，但明确 的信号已为市场情绪提供了坚实边际支撑。 的信号已为市场情绪提供了坚实边际支撑。 供应层面，印尼Grasberg、智利El Teniente等矿山复产进度缓慢，新增产能投放有限，国内冶炼厂存在减产预期，2026年全球电解铜产量增速预期放 缓，铜矿供应紧张逐渐向电解铜供应紧张转变。 铜矿供应紧张逐渐向电解铜供应紧张转变。 需求层面，电网需求强劲，新能源汽车对铜的需求呈现爆发式增长，新能源汽车和算力带动相关电力配套成为新增长点，家电消费有望保持稳 ...

原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 05 后市研判 报告PA摘RT要 01 | | （1）美国CPI数据超预期放缓。 | | --- | --- | | 市场焦点 | （2）俄乌和平方案谈判持续推进。 | | | （3）美委紧张关系加剧。 | 重点数据 （1）美国至12月12日当周EIA原油库存 -127.4万桶，预期-106.6万桶，前值-181.2万桶。 （2）美国至12月12日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -74.2万桶，前值30.8万桶。 （3）美国至12月12日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 24.9万桶，前值24.8万桶。 主要观点 本周原油整体延续偏弱运行的态势，美委紧张关系加剧引发地缘风险溢价，但市场缺乏上行的持续驱动，俄乌地 缘缓和预期升温叠加供应过剩的预期仍对盘面形成压制。一方面，美乌柏林会晤在对乌安全保障机制上取得了显著进 展，市场对俄乌达成停火协议的预期升温，另外一方面，OPEC+及美国的原油供应延续环比增长的趋势，进一步强化 市场供应 ...

沥青周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 重点数据 （1）截止12月17日，国内沥青样本企业开工率27.6%，较上一统计周期下降0.2个百分点。 （2）截止12月19日，国内沥青周度产量48.7万吨，环比上周减少1.2万吨。 （3）截止12月19日，国内沥青样本企业厂库库存59.1万吨，环比上周增加0.3万吨。 （4）截止12月19日，国内沥青样本企业社会库存71.4万吨，环比上周减少0.7万吨。 主要观点 本周沥青盘面呈现宽幅震荡的走势，一方面，受原油走势偏弱的传导，化工板块整体偏弱，叠加沥青基本面偏弱 的影响，沥青盘面周初整体延续震荡偏弱的走势，另外一方面，美国总统特朗普宣布对进入委内瑞拉受制裁的油轮进 行封锁，原料端的扰动导致盘面一度大幅反弹，随着委内瑞拉批准两艘油轮驶往亚洲，原料端的风险溢价出现回落， 基本回吐此前的涨幅。后续来看，在下游需求步入萎缩叠加成本端支撑减弱的背景下，盘面仍面临承压，尽管美委关 系持续紧张，原料端的仍可能对盘面造成扰动，但考虑到国内原 ...