01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-11-21 目录 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 | 美 | 国 | 非 | 农 | 就 | 人 | 增 | 长 | 人 | 期 | 的 | 倍 | 多 | 非 | 农 | 就 | 人 | 数 | 合 | 修 | 人 | 月 | 业 | 是 | 预 | 两 | 但 | 月 | 和 | 月 | 业 | 计 | 月 | ） | 万 | 下 | 万 | （ | 1 | 9 | 口 | 1 | 1. | 9 | 7 | 8 | 3. | 3 | 9 | ， | ， | 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

橡胶周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 011. 2025年11月19日-11月25日期间，天然橡胶东南亚主产区降雨量较上一周期增加，赤道以北高降水量区域主要集中在 越南、泰国南部等地区，其余大部分区域降水处于偏低状态，对割胶工作影响增强；赤道以南高降水量区域主要分布 在印尼西部、马来西部等地区，其他大部分区域降雨量处于中等状态，对割胶工作影响增强。 本周合成橡胶盘面维持震荡。周五市场受宏观影响较为明显，受非农数据影响，美联储降息预期减弱，全球金融资产承压， 商品情绪受影响。从基本面看，国内产区逐步进入减产停割期，海外主产区易受降雨天气影响，整体原料上量有限，价格 稳中偏强运行，橡胶成本端存支撑。天然橡胶整体小幅累库，青岛保税区库存小幅去化，整体库存压力不大。合成橡胶供 需矛盾相较天然橡胶突出，今年以来，丁二烯和合成橡胶的产能投放速度加快，供应处在偏高位。但近期全钢胎和半钢胎 企业产能利用率均有所走弱，其中半钢胎企业产能利用率回落较为明显，季节性淡季效应逐步显现，整体轮胎库存去 ...

沥青周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-11-21 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 04 后市研判 报告P摘AR要T 01 （1）俄乌停火谈判有望继续推进，地缘风险溢价回落。 （2）美国EIA当周原油库存去库。 （3）沥青裂解价差环比回落。 市场焦点 重点数据 （1）截止11月19日，国内沥青样本企业开工率24.8%，较上一统计周期下降4.2个百分点。 （2）截止11月21日，国内沥青周度产量44.1万吨，环比上周减少7.3万吨。 （3）截止11月21日，国内沥青样本企业厂库库存64.2万吨，环比上周减少0.5万吨。 （4）截止11月21日，国内沥青样本企业社会库存79.4万吨，环比上周减少3.1万吨。 主要观点 本周沥青盘面呈现窄幅震荡的走势，一方面，前期盘面大跌后存在反弹修复的动能，市场下跌动能较前期有所减 弱，另外一方面，沥青社会库存延续去库的态势，尽管需求进入淡季，但是盘面单边下行仍需更多需求端的负反馈。 后续来看，盘面缺少利多驱动，预计延续偏弱运行的态势，一方面，随着沥青下游步入淡季，供应过剩的压力 ...

原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-11-21 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 04 后市研判 报告P摘AR要T 01 （1）乌克兰收到美和平计划草案，地缘局势缓和。 市场焦点 （2）美国EIA当周原油库存去库。 重点数据 （1）美国至11月14日当周EIA原油库存 -342.6万桶，预期-60.3万桶，前值641.3万桶。 （2）美国至11月14日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -69.8万桶，前值-34.6万桶。 （3）美国至11月14日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 53.3万桶，前值79.8万桶。 主要观点 本周油价先涨后跌，整体呈现震荡偏弱的走势。原油的影响因素多空交织，周初地缘政治扰动为油价提供支撑， 乌克兰袭击俄罗斯港口一度导致原油出口暂停，供应收紧的担忧支撑油价上涨。随后市场消息称美俄秘密达成俄乌停 火协议框架，随后乌克兰总统泽连斯基证实收到美国和平计划草案，美国短期对俄罗斯态度的转变，令市场预期美国 放松对俄罗斯能源领域的制裁，供应宽松预期推动油价下跌。后续来看，原油供应过剩的预期仍是市 ...

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-11-21 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 | 业 业 （ 1 ） 美 国 9 月 非 农 就 人 口 增 长 1 1. 9 万 人 是 预 期 的 两 倍 多 但 7 月 和 8 月 非 农 就 人 数 合 计 下 修 3. 3 万 人 9 月 | | --- | | 。 ， ， 失 业 率 意 外 升 至 4. 4 % 为 2 0 2 1 年 1 0 月 以 来 最 高 市 场 焦 点 ， 。 一 （ 2 ） 中 国 央 行 将 年 期 和 五 年 期 贷 款 市 场 报 价 利 率 （ L P R ） 分 别 维 持 在 3 % 和 3. 5 % 不 变 为 连 续 六 个 月 保 持 不 变 ， 。 宏 观 面 美 国 9 月 非 农 数 据 喜 忧 参 半 市 场 仍 在 等 待 更 多 数 据 指 引 美 联 储 官 员 讲 话 最 近 整 体 偏 鹰 市 场 对 于 1 2 ， ， ， ， 月 继 续 降 息 的 押 ...

衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-11-21 目录 01 报告摘要 焦煤焦炭周度报告 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 本周双焦盘面跌幅较上周有所放大。自11月以来，焦煤盘面逐步走弱，其中11月11日受发改委冬季保供会议的影响，市场供应偏 紧预期已有所松动，当日跌幅较大。之后市场由于缺乏政策预期驱动，现货市场受期货市场情绪影响，成交价格同步走弱，期现 共振，同时随着主力合约临近换月，近月合约面临交割压力，盘面下跌力度逐步增强，空头增仓动能有所增大。短期看，供应存 回升预期叠加钢材产业链盈利不佳下游补库力度有限，盘面支撑减弱，但由于矿山企业前期去库较为明显，自身库存压力不大， 预计盘面下行空间有限，关注盘面企稳情况。焦炭近期随着第四轮提涨的落地以及焦煤价格的回落，焦企利润有所好转，但钢厂 盈利持续受到压制。钢企盈利率的走低会使得钢焦企业博弈加剧，钢厂对焦企提涨的抵触会增强，使得后续再度提涨的可能性减 弱，甚至如果焦煤价格出现回调，不排除钢厂发起提降动作，向焦企要利润的可能。盘面关注焦煤支撑力度，受焦煤走势影响较 为明 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - From November 12 - 18, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared to the previous period. The impact on rubber tapping varied in different regions. The synthetic rubber market stopped falling and stabilized this week, while natural rubber oscillated strongly to repair some previous losses. The domestic economic growth slowed down in October, and policy support is still needed. Natural rubber has cost - side support, with a slight inventory build - up and no obvious inventory pressure. The production of butadiene rubber has been high this year, with obvious inventory pressure in factories, suppressing price elasticity. Downstream tire demand is weakening, and the overall tire production utilization rate is weakly stable. Overall, natural rubber will mainly oscillate, and synthetic rubber will have a weak price trend. Attention should be paid to the widening price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [6][30] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Report Summary - From November 12 - 18, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia changed, affecting rubber tapping differently in different regions. The synthetic rubber market stopped falling, and natural rubber oscillated strongly. In October, the domestic economic growth slowed down, and policy support is needed. Natural rubber has cost - side support, with a slight inventory build - up. The production of butadiene rubber is high, and downstream tire demand is weakening. The market lacks prominent contradictions, and natural rubber will oscillate, while synthetic rubber will have a weak price trend [5][6] - In October, the sales of new energy vehicles in China accounted for 51.6% of the total new vehicle sales, with production and sales increasing year - on - year. The retail sales of passenger cars decreased year - on - year, and the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars increased year - on - year [7] Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: Natural rubber has no obvious inventory pressure and its raw material prices are supported. Bearish factors: The domestic economic data growth slowed down in October [10] Data Analysis - Economic data: In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. In October, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year [15] - Natural rubber raw material prices: As of November 13, the prices of raw materials in Thailand and domestic regions were at certain levels. The raw material prices were firm due to the approaching off - season in Yunnan and rain in overseas areas [16] - Natural rubber inventory: As of the week of November 7, 2025, the overall natural rubber inventory continued to build up slightly. The inventory in bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased, while that in general trade warehouses increased [20] - Butadiene rubber raw material and profit: The price of butadiene has stabilized recently, and the production profit of butadiene rubber has declined. As of the week of November 14, the theoretical production profit was 606.8571 yuan/ton, down 105.71 yuan/ton from last week [21] - Butadiene rubber inventory: As of the week of November 14, the production of high - cis butadiene rubber increased, the factory inventory increased slightly, and the trader inventory increased significantly [23] - Tire production utilization rate: As of the week of November 14, the production utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased slightly, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased slightly. The inventory days of both increased [24] - Rubber contract price difference: As of November 13, the "RU - NR" January contract price difference oscillated narrowly, and the "NR - BR" main contract price difference was strong [26] 后市研判 - Macroscopically, the domestic economic growth slowed down in October, and policy support is needed. Fundamentally, natural rubber has cost - side support, with a slight inventory build - up and no obvious inventory pressure. Butadiene rubber has high inventory pressure, and downstream tire demand is weakening. Overall, natural rubber will oscillate, and synthetic rubber will have a weak price trend. Attention should be paid to the widening price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [30]

Report Summary - As of November 11, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.76%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non-housing construction projects decreased by 0.16 percentage points week-on-week, while that of housing construction projects increased by 0.05 percentage points week-on-week [5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, emphasizing stable energy production and supply, including coal production, transportation, and power generation, and ensuring the fulfillment of medium - and long - term energy contracts [5]. - Domestic coking coal supply increased slightly, with low inventory pressure. Independent coke enterprises reduced coking coal inventory slightly, and steel mills maintained just - in - time procurement. Coke production was weakly stable, iron - water production increased, and coke consumption rose. The fourth round of price increase for coke was partially implemented, but the implementation time was postponed [5]. - This week, the double - coke futures market fluctuated weakly. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with funds gradually shifting to the far - month 05 contract. Attention should be paid to the intensity and rhythm of downstream winter storage and the impact of domestic stock market sentiment on intraday market fluctuations [5]. Market Focus Bullish Factors - Low inventory pressure of coking coal [8] - Strong performance of thermal coal prices [8] Bearish Factors - Slowdown in China's economic data growth in October [8] - The National Development and Reform Commission's winter energy supply guarantee meeting revised the expectation of coal supply [8] Data Analysis Macroeconomic Data - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,629.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,089.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year [13]. Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of November 14, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.28%, a week - on - week increase of 2.52%, and the daily average output was 757,400 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 37.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%, and the daily average output was 274,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. As of the week of November 8, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased [15]. Coking Coal Inventory - As of November 14, the coking coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 1.6506 million tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons; the coking coal inventory of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 3.0082 million tons, an increase of 58,500 tons; the coking coal inventory at ports was 2.985 million tons, a decrease of 57,700 tons [17]. - As of November 14, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 10.6897 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons. The available days of inventory were 12.76 days, an increase of 0.11 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises was 581,500 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [20]. - As of November 14, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9017 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons. The available days of inventory were 12.87 days, an increase of 0.03 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.224 million tons, a decrease of 42,400 tons compared with the previous period, and the available days were 11.06 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared with the previous period [24]. Coke Production and Consumption - As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 71.64%, a decrease of 0.67% compared with the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons compared with the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.14%, an increase of 0.15% compared with the previous period, and the daily average output of coke was 461,700 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared with the previous period [26]. - As of the week of November 14, China's coke consumption was 1.066 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons. The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel enterprises was 236,880 tons, an increase of 26,600 tons [28]. Coke Price Increase - As of November 14, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was a loss of 34 yuan/ton, and the loss increased. The fourth round of price increase was gradually implemented. As of November 14, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 38.96%, a further decrease of 0.87% compared with the previous period. The decrease in the profitability rate of steel enterprises intensified the game between steel and coke enterprises, and steel mills postponed the implementation of the price increase, limiting the profit margin of coke enterprises [30]. Basis Structure of Double - Coke Futures and Spot - The spot prices of double - coke were firm, while the futures expectations weakened [32]. Market Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission's energy supply guarantee meeting revised the expectation of a tight coal supply - demand pattern. Macroeconomic data showed a slowdown in economic growth, and the market still needs policy support. In the short term, the market lacks positive drivers and will maintain a volatile trend, with funds gradually shifting to the far - month 05 contract. Attention should be paid to the intensity and rhythm of downstream winter storage and the impact of domestic stock market sentiment on intraday market fluctuations [34]. - This week, the increase in hot - metal production drove up coke consumption. The increase in the average loss per ton of coke promoted the implementation of the fourth round of price increase. The decrease in the profitability rate of steel enterprises intensified the game between steel and coke enterprises, postponing the implementation of the price increase and limiting the profit margin of coke enterprises. The futures market followed the fluctuations of coking coal [37]

铜产业链周度报告 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-11-14 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | A | 0 | 1 | P | R | T | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a narrow - range oscillation. There is a rebound - repair momentum after last week's sharp decline, and the relatively strong oil prices at the beginning of the week provided some support. The asphalt social inventory continued to decline. However, the market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to remain weak. As the asphalt downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are difficult to improve effectively, and the expectation of crude oil supply surplus will suppress the market in the medium - to - long term. The cost side offers limited upward support. In the short term, due to the large decline, there is still room for rebound - repair, and the increased volatility of crude oil will intensify short - term market fluctuations. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure in the range of 3130 - 3170 yuan/ton for the BU2601 contract [8][52] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Report Summary - Market focus: Tensions between the US and Venezuela continue, with the US increasing military operations in the Caribbean. The US EIA weekly crude oil inventory increased significantly, and the OPEC market expectation shifted from tight to surplus [7] - Key data: As of November 12, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 29%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period. As of November 14, the weekly asphalt output was 51.4 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.1 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 82.5 tons, a decrease of 7.2 tons from the previous week [7] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - Bullish factors: Supply decline and geopolitical risks [11] - Bearish factors: Weakening demand [11] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC's monthly report shows that the global crude oil market expectation has shifted from balanced to surplus. Previously, OPEC expected a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day, but now it indicates a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day. OPEC has raised the supply growth forecast of non - OPEC countries by 110,000 barrels per day. In October, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.46 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 barrels per day, and OPEC+'s production was 43.02 million barrels per day, a decrease of 73,000 barrels per day from September. The global crude oil demand growth rate is expected to be 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. From January to September this year, global oil inventories increased by 304 million barrels. The expectation of crude oil supply surplus is the main pressure on the market, but OPEC+ has suspended the production increase plan for the first quarter of next year, and the relatively strong demand provides some support. Geopolitical uncertainties will intensify oil price fluctuations, and it is expected that crude oil will maintain a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the WTI crude oil price range of $55 - $60 per barrel [12] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and short - term negotiations are unlikely. The relationship between the US and Venezuela remains uncertain. Geopolitical uncertainties have not caused substantial losses to global crude oil supply for the time being, but they will affect market sentiment and intensify oil price fluctuations [13] 3.4 Supply - and - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of November 14, the weekly asphalt output was 51.4 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of refineries is in a seasonal decline, and it is expected that the supply will continue to decrease [14] - Demand: As of November 14, the weekly asphalt shipment volume was 36.2 tons, a decrease of 8.3 tons from the previous statistical date, reaching the lowest level since May. The demand in the north has decreased due to low - temperature weather, and the improvement in the south is not obvious. The weekly capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt was 11.22%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from last week but a 0.55 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. It is in a seasonal decline [24][27] - Inventory: As of November 14, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 tons, mainly in the southwest and south regions. The social inventory was 82.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.2 tons, continuing the downward trend since August [34][41] - Spread: As of November 14, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 613 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.8 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic asphalt basis was 301 yuan/ton, at a high level in recent years. As of November 12, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 52.38 [50] 3.5 Market Outlook - The market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure in the range of 3130 - 3170 yuan/ton for the BU2601 contract [52]