上海银行（601229）：息差降幅趋稳，前瞻风险改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 11.93 [14]. Core Views - The company's net profit and revenue growth for 2024 are projected at 4.5% and 4.8%, respectively, which is higher than previous expectations [1]. - The company is expected to continue its stable growth, with an improvement in hidden risks and a potential for valuation recovery [5]. - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is RMB 245 billion, RMB 258 billion, and RMB 273 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.0%, 5.4%, and 5.7% respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported a year-on-year increase in net interest income of 4.7%, contrasting with a decline of 7.6% in 2024 [3]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.50 per share for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 31.22% [1]. Asset Quality - As of the end of 2024, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for retail and corporate loans were 1.14% and 1.37%, respectively, indicating a slight improvement in corporate loan quality [4]. - The company has a provision coverage ratio of 271% as of Q1 2025, which is stable compared to the end of 2024 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.67 for 2025, reflecting a stable outlook for the company's valuation [5]. - The estimated book value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is RMB 17.70, which supports the target PB ratio [5]. Market Position - The company's total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 4.6%, 2.1%, and 4.3% respectively by the end of 2024 [2]. - The company has maintained a stable growth in deposits, with an increase in the proportion of demand deposits [2].