上海银行（601229）：营收韧性稳盈利，分红抬升夯股息

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Shanghai Bank (601229.SH) with a current stock price of 10.57 CNY [1][3]. Core Views - Shanghai Bank's revenue shows resilience with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% in 2024 and 3.8% in Q1 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders grows by 4.5% and 2.3% respectively [3][6]. - The bank's total assets reached 3.27 trillion CNY by the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year increase, with loans and deposits growing by 0.5% and 4.6% respectively [3][6]. - The profit distribution plan for 2024 includes a cash dividend of 2.20 CNY per 10 shares, resulting in a cash dividend rate of approximately 31.22% [3][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit: - Operating net income for 2024 is projected at 52.99 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 23.56 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a 4.5% increase [5]. - Return on Equity (ROE): - The annualized weighted average ROE for 2024 and Q1 2025 is projected at 10.01% and 10.64% respectively [3][5]. - Asset Quality: - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 1.18% as of Q1 2025, with a slight increase in the provision coverage ratio to 271% [7][9]. - Dividend Yield: - The dividend yield is highlighted at 4.73%, emphasizing the stock's value in terms of dividends [6][7]. Business Strategy and Outlook - Shanghai Bank is focusing on key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, leveraging its geographical advantages to ensure stable income sources [6][7]. - The bank aims to enhance its competitive edge by concentrating on consumer finance, wealth management, and pension finance, particularly in retail customer segments [6][7]. - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted upwards, with expected EPS of 1.72 CNY, 1.82 CNY, and 1.92 CNY respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory [6][9].