Minmetals Securities·2025-04-25 12:23Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The price of germanium has surged significantly in the second half of 2024, driven by increased supply and strong demand from commercial satellites. The price peaked at 18,850 CNY/kg before retreating to around 15,000 CNY/kg in early 2025 [12][13] - Major germanium producers in China include Yunnan Germanium, Chihong Zinc & Germanium, Zhongjin Lingnan, and Luoping Zinc & Electricity, with a total estimated production of approximately 183 tons in 2024, of which 37 tons (20%) will come from new supply in Guangxi and Inner Mongolia [13][19] - The demand for germanium is expected to rise significantly due to the advancement of satellite constellation plans and increased single-satellite power. By 2030, the demand for germanium from commercial satellites is projected to reach about 70 tons, representing a 38% increase from the current supply [15][19] Summary by Sections Section 1: Germanium Price Trends - The long-term price center for germanium is expected to rise above 10,000 CNY/kg, supported by high production costs in Inner Mongolia [19][20] - The price of germanium has fluctuated historically, with significant increases noted from 6,644 CNY in early 2007 to a peak of 10,960 CNY in late 2008, followed by a drop to 7,000-8,000 CNY in 2020 [20] Section 2: Supply Sources - Inner Mongolia's Xilin Gol League is a crucial source of germanium, with significant reserves accounting for 68% of China's total and 38% of the world's reserves. The Ulan Tuogai open-pit mine is currently the largest germanium mine in China [2][19] - The total estimated germanium production capacity in 2024 from major producers is approximately 182.9 tons, with Yunnan Germanium and Chihong Zinc & Germanium being the largest contributors [17] Section 3: Demand Projections - The G60 and GW satellite constellation plans are expected to significantly increase germanium demand, with projections indicating a substantial rise in usage by 2030 [18] - The stable demand from other sectors such as fiber optics and infrared applications will further support the overall demand for germanium [15] Section 4: Market Overview - The overall market performance for the metal materials sector has shown fluctuations, with the Shenyin Wanguo Metal New Materials Index reporting a decrease of 0.89% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 23.19% [22][24] - The report highlights the performance of key companies in the sector, with notable increases in stock prices for several firms during March 2025 [36][37]