华金期货黑色原料周报-20250425

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For iron ore, the overall molten iron production remains at a high level, steel mills' sinter powder inventory is low, and there is still overall rigid demand. There is a demand for restocking before the holiday, with a possibility of short - term pulsed increases, but it will be under pressure in the medium term [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the number of Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicles remains stable, the overall port inventory level is still high, the supply side has an obvious surplus, and neither the spot nor futures prices have the momentum for continuous rebound. Attention should be paid to the possibility of supply - side reduction [45]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Iron Ore - Overseas Supply: Overseas shipments are generally at a normal level. Australian and Brazilian shipments are stable this week, non - mainstream shipments are at a low level, and domestic iron concentrate powder production remains stable. Australian and Brazilian shipments recovered by 2900 tons to 24.377 million tons this period, and non - Australian and Brazilian shipments recovered by 14900 tons to about 4.878 million tons. It is expected that the arrival volume will remain at an average level in the second quarter [2][6]. - Four Major Mines' Shipments: Fortescue's iron ore shipments in Q4 2024 reached 48.9 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 3.56%, and the shipment target for the 2025 fiscal year is 190 - 200 million tons. Vale's iron ore production in Q1 25 was 67.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%, and the annual production target remains unchanged at 325 - 335 million tons. Rio Tinto's iron ore production in Q1 25 was 69.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%, and the annual shipment remains unchanged at 323 - 338 million tons. BHP's Pilbara business iron ore production in FY25Q3 was 67.8 million tons, unchanged year - on - year, and the 2025 fiscal year iron ore target guidance remains unchanged at 282 - 294 million tons [17]. - Demand: This week, molten iron production continued to rise and is expected to remain at a high level, rising by 42300 tons to about 2.4435 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated and declined, the port clearance volume remained at a high level, and downstream restocked before the holiday [22]. - Inventory: Sinter powder inventory remains at a normal level, and the total port inventory increased slightly, expected to remain in a balanced state. The total port inventory increased by 2.05 million tons to 142.61 million tons this week. Steel mills' imported sinter powder inventory remained stable, increasing by 17400 tons to 12.6852 million tons this week [28][30]. - Futures - Spot Structure: The futures - spot prices fluctuated widely, with far - month prices at a large discount to the spot, indicating weakening expectations. It is expected that the pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness will continue before May Day [34]. - Relationship with Foreign Exchange: Tariff factors lead to the market selling the US dollar. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year, and the US dollar index will continue to decline under pressure [40]. - Relationship with Non - mainstream Region Shipments: No specific analysis content provided other than the data graph. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal Demand and Coke Supply: Molten iron production is expected to remain at a high level and increased significantly this week. The first round of coke price increase of 50 yuan/ton was implemented, but there was no further progress in the second round, and coke profits are still under pressure [51]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory remained at a low level, decreasing by 71700 tons to 9.6896 million tons this week. Steel mills' coking coal inventory decreased slightly by 17500 tons to about 7.828 million tons this week, both at relatively low levels in the same period. Port imported coking coal inventory continued to decline, decreasing slightly by 125900 tons to 3.2479 million tons this week, and the overall level of mine clean coal inventory is high [54][60]. - Coking Coal Term Structure: There is an obvious supply surplus, coal prices are oscillating at the bottom, downstream willingness to take delivery is poor, and it is difficult to see a substantial turning point in the short term [64]. - Coke Inventory: The second round of coke price increase has no further news. Profits are still negative but have recovered. Independent coking production has continued to rise to around the average. Steel mills' rigid demand is strong, and the number of available days of coke inventory has continued to decline. This week, the total coke inventory did not change significantly, molten iron production increased significantly by 42300 tons to 2.4435 million tons, and the national average coking profit this week was about - 9 yuan/ton [67][72]. - Coke Term Structure: Coke futures and spot prices remained oscillating at a low level. There are market rumors that coking enterprises still have the intention to raise prices for the second round. The basis has narrowed, but the futures are still in a premium structure [77].