农产品日报-20250425

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Positive Outlook (★★★): Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, corn [1][4][6][7] - Slightly Positive (★☆☆): Live pigs, eggs [1][8][9] - Neutral or Unclear (ななな): Soybean No.1, soybean meal, rapeseed meal [1][2][3][6] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are affected by multiple factors including supply - demand changes, policies, and international market trends. Short - term price fluctuations are significant, and investors need to pay attention to various influencing factors and control risks [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean main contract price has fallen from its recent high, and Inner Mongolia will continue to auction regulated reserves. The short - term supply pattern of imported soybeans is changing from tight to loose, with large arrivals expected from May to July. The spot price of soybeans and the basis have declined, and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal has also dropped significantly. Attention should be paid to the impact of increased soybean arrivals on the basis [2][3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The US soybean oil has risen strongly due to the Advanced Biofuels Association's call to increase the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) to 5.75 billion gallons in 2026 and the rising price of RIN D4. Domestic soybean oil and palm oil have followed the overseas price increase. The palm oil production increases in the second and third quarters, and attention should be paid to supply and demand changes. With the approaching May Day holiday, investors should control volatility risks [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures have followed the decline of soybean - related futures. China has increased the import of Indian rapeseed meal, and the domestic rapeseed crushing rate and rapeseed meal output have decreased. Rapeseed meal demand is mainly for some aquatic products, and soybean meal can form a certain substitution. The long - term supply shortage may be alleviated by new trade flows. The rapeseed - related market is mainly volatile, and investors should pay attention to Sino - US - Canada trade policies [6] Corn - The Politburo meeting pointed out that China needs to further consolidate the foundation for economic recovery, and incremental reserve policies will be introduced according to the situation. The remaining supply in front of Shandong's deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the wheat drought has intensified with rising prices. Traders have different views on the future market. Corn futures may decline in the medium - term, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [7] Live Pigs - After a sharp decline, live pig futures have rebounded slightly with reduced positions, while the spot price has generally fallen slightly. The number of fertile sows has recovered, and the number of newborn piglets in March reached a new high since May 2023. The expected high - pressure on pig slaughter in September and the increasing slaughter weight, especially for fat pigs, may lead to a decline in the spot price [8] Eggs - The egg futures have rebounded with reduced positions, while the spot price has continued to fall. The previous price rebound due to raw material price fluctuations and low - price replenishment demand has ended. The in - production inventory in March continued to rise, and the high enthusiasm for chick replenishment in March will lead to increased production capacity before the end of August. A bearish view is taken on the long - term egg price [9]