能源日报-20250425

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Low-sulfur fuel oil and liquefied petroleum gas are rated with three stars, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market continues to fluctuate. The support of U.S. oil sanctions on oil prices is short - term, and the upside space for the previous oil price rebound is limited. The downside risk will increase again near the upper edge of the shock range [2]. - The global heavy - oil shortage pattern is difficult to change in the short term. The FU cracking still has support, while the LU cracking is expected to be under pressure [3]. - The asphalt is expected to fluctuate strongly. The planned asphalt production in May is 2.32 million tons, and the overall inventory level has decreased [4]. - The overseas PQ market fluctuates strongly, but the domestic LPG market is under pressure. The futures spread has shrunk, and the futures price maintains a shock [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The crude oil market continues to fluctuate. Trump mentioned that the Russia - Ukraine agreement cannot be completed before the deadline, and Russia may face a new round of sanctions. The third round of Iran nuclear talks will also affect market sentiment. Considering OPEC+'s surplus production capacity and production - increasing elasticity, the support of U.S. oil sanctions on oil prices is short - term, and the upside space for the previous oil price rebound is limited. The downside risk will increase again near the upper edge of the shock range [2]. Fuel Oil - The global heavy - oil shortage pattern is difficult to change in the short term. The peak summer fuel - oil power - generation season in Asian countries is beneficial to demand, which may lead to a 3.4% decrease in the heavy - residue fuel - oil inventory at the Fujairah port on April 21. The FU cracking still has support. The shipment of low - sulfur fuel oil from Kuwait has rebounded significantly and is at a high level in recent years. The low - sulfur residue output of northern refineries has increased significantly this week, and the ship - refueling demand continues to be weak. The LU single - side price is driven up by crude oil today, but the cracking is expected to be under pressure [3]. Asphalt - The planned asphalt production in May is 2.32 million tons, and the planned production of local refineries is 1.244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44,000 tons. The seasonal improvement expectation of demand is difficult to be falsified. From January to mid - April this year, the cumulative scale of special bonds flowing into the toll - road field was 34 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.9 billion yuan (+47%). As of April 24, the inventory of sample refineries decreased by 67,000 tons month - on - month to 897,000 tons, and the sample social inventory increased by 14,000 tons month - on - month to 1.946 million tons. The overall inventory level decreased month - on - month. The asphalt is expected to fluctuate strongly [4]. LPG - Under the expectation of sanctions on Iran and tariff easing, the overseas PQ market fluctuates strongly. The discount of propane to naphtha still has a cost advantage, and overseas chemical demand may increase. PDH plants are gradually shutting down, and the subsequent operating rate still has a downward trend. There will be a concentrated arrival of imported gas at the terminal in the second half of the month, resulting in a temporary surplus of imported gas. The domestic market is under pressure. Driven by crude oil, the futures spread has shrunk, but the further upward momentum is limited, and the futures price maintains a shock [5].