格林大华期货中国宏观经济4月报：实施更加积极有为的宏观政策-20250425

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - China's Q1 GDP grew 5.4% year-on-year, better than the market expectation of 5.2%. Q1 fixed - asset investment performed well, with infrastructure investment accelerating in March, and consumption growth significantly faster than in Q4 2024. In March, industrial production accelerated, and export growth exceeded expectations. The good economic data in Q1 was due to policy support and export - frontloading. The high tariffs between China and the US are difficult to resolve in the short term. China needs to implement more proactive macro - policies, use fiscal and monetary policies, and boost domestic demand to deal with external shocks [3][11][63] 3. Key Points by Category Economic Growth - Q1 GDP grew 5.4% year - on - year, better than the market expectation of 5.2% [3] - Q1 secondary industry grew 5.9% year - on - year, and the tertiary industry grew 5.3% year - on - year [6] Investment - From January to March, national fixed - asset investment grew 4.2% year - on - year, faster than the 4.1% in January - February and the market expectation of 4.0%. General infrastructure investment (including power) grew 11.5% year - on - year, manufacturing investment grew 9.1% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased 9.9% year - on - year [9][11] Real Estate - From January to March, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 3.0% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 2.1% year - on - year. In April (first 20 days), the daily average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased 16% year - on - year. The national second - hand housing price is still at the bottom [14][15][18] Industry - In March, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises grew 7.7% year - on - year, better than the market expectation of 5.9%. The manufacturing added value grew 7.9% [23] Consumption - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew 5.9% year - on - year. Benefiting from the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones, the sales of some consumer goods increased significantly. From January to March, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew 4.6% year - on - year [25][28] Foreign Trade - In March, China's exports grew 12.4% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports decreased 4.3% year - on - year. Exports to ASEAN, the EU, and the US all increased. In April (first 20 days), South Korea's exports decreased 5.2% year - on - year [30][31][36] Finance - In March, the new social financing scale was 5.89 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 3.64 trillion yuan, both exceeding market expectations. At the end of March, M2 grew 7.0% year - on - year, and M1 grew 1.6% year - on - year [39][42][45] Price - In March, CPI decreased 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased 2.5% year - on - year. The core CPI increased 0.5% year - on - year [48][52] Employment - In March, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, the same as the same period last year [60] Global Economy - On April 22, the IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, and also lowered the growth forecasts for the US, the eurozone, and China [61][62]