Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The recent inventory accumulation rate in the asphalt industry chain has slowed down. If the inventory level can remain low in the second quarter, it will strongly support subsequent prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate significantly due to macro and geopolitical factors, while medium - to - long - term oil prices still face downward pressure. The unilateral price fluctuation of asphalt is weaker than that of crude oil. With the improvement of short - term supply and demand and the lack of elasticity in the medium - to - long - term supply side, the downward space of asphalt is expected to be limited, and it should be treated with a shock mindset. The operating range of BU2506 is expected to be between 3300 - 3450 [4][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - In April, crude oil prices fluctuated sharply under the influence of macro and geopolitical factors. At the beginning of April, due to global trade war disturbances, crude oil prices dropped significantly, causing the asphalt cost to collapse. The domestic pessimistic sentiment spread, and the price of the main asphalt contract followed the sharp decline of crude oil prices to around 3300 yuan/ton. In mid - April, the intensification of US sanctions on Iran and the OPEC+ over - production compensation plan led to a rebound in crude oil prices, driving the repair of asphalt costs. The asphalt price gradually recovered with the support of cost repair and demand improvement. In late April, the trade war situation continued, and there were disagreements within OPEC+ regarding production adjustments, causing crude oil prices to fluctuate more violently. In April, the discount of diluted asphalt remained at - 5.5 US dollars/barrel. The basis generally recovered, and currently, both the spot and futures valuations are high [3][9][29]. 1.2 Market Outlook - The recent slowdown in inventory accumulation in the asphalt industry chain. If the inventory level remains low in the second quarter, it will strongly support subsequent prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate significantly due to macro and geopolitical factors, while medium - to - long - term oil prices still face downward pressure. The unilateral price fluctuation of asphalt is weaker than that of crude oil. With the improvement of short - term supply and demand and the lack of elasticity in the supply side in the second half of the year, the downward space of asphalt is expected to be limited, and it should be treated with a shock mindset. The operating range of BU2506 is expected to be between 3300 - 3450 [4]. 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Range - bound shock. - Arbitrage: The spread between asphalt and crude oil is expected to narrow. - Options: If holding long positions, a strategy of selling call options can be adopted [5][34]. 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - Repeated with the content in the preface summary, in April, crude oil prices fluctuated sharply under the influence of macro and geopolitical factors, affecting asphalt prices and costs, and the basis generally recovered with high spot and futures valuations [9]. 2.2 Supply Overview - In March, domestic refinery asphalt production was 2.23 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 260,000 tons (9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 140,000 tons (6%). From January to March 2025, domestic refinery asphalt production was 6.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10,000 tons. In April, the planned asphalt production of domestic refineries was 2.09 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons (1%) and a year - on - year decrease of 160,000 tons (7%). In May, the planned asphalt production of local refineries is expected to be around 1.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 150,000 tons (15%) and a year - on - year increase of 160,000 tons (16%). In the first quarter of 2025, domestic asphalt imports were 670,000 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of about 20%. In March 2025, asphalt imports were about 260,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 50,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 40,000 tons; exports in February were about 60,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of about 30,000 tons [15][16][17]. 2.3 Demand Overview - In April, as the temperature warmed up, the overall demand for asphalt continued to recover slowly. At the refinery end, the shipment volume increased month - on - month, and the shipment level was higher than that of the same period last year. Downstream demand also recovered slowly but was still lower than last year's level. The capacity utilization rate of road modified asphalt increased slightly, rising about 2 percentage points compared to March. Modified asphalt enterprises resumed production and increased production, and the capacity utilization rate continued to rise by 2 percentage points. The demand for waterproofing membranes remained stable. In the north, the good weather supported the rigid demand; in the south, the intermittent rainy weather limited the demand growth [23]. 2.4 Inventory and Valuation - The inventory accumulation rate in the industry chain slowed down. In April, the refinery inventory remained stable compared to March, with the refinery inventory rate maintained at 30% - 31%. The social inventory rate increased slightly month - on - month. In terms of cost, crude oil prices fluctuated sharply in April, affecting asphalt costs. The basis generally recovered, and currently, both the spot and futures valuations are high [28][29]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The demand in the short - term and expected to improve, and the inventory accumulation rate in the asphalt industry chain has slowed down. If the inventory level can remain low in the second quarter, it will strongly support subsequent prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate significantly due to macro and geopolitical factors, while medium - to - long - term oil prices still face downward pressure. The unilateral price fluctuation of asphalt is weaker than that of crude oil. With the improvement of short - term supply and demand and the lack of elasticity in the medium - to - long - term supply side, the downward space of asphalt is expected to be limited, and it should be treated with a shock mindset. The operating range of BU2506 is expected to be between 3300 - 3450. Strategy recommendations include unilateral range - bound shock, narrowing the asphalt - crude oil spread, and if holding long positions, adopting a strategy of selling call options [34].
银河期货沥青5月报-20250425
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-04-25 15:09