原油5月报：供需近稳远弱，宏观扰动频繁-20250425

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term: The overall supply and demand of crude oil are stable. There are no definite signs of a recession in the US. Crude oil is undervalued and there is room for valuation repair. The main drivers are Sino - US tariff games and the progress of US - Iran negotiations. Oil prices should be viewed with a topping - out strategy, and attention should be paid to the pressure around $68 per barrel for Brent [4][73]. - Medium - term: The impact of the "tariff war" on the economy will gradually materialize. It is necessary to verify whether a US recession occurs based on actual economic data. OPEC may continue to "push down prices" on the supply side, and oil prices still face significant pressure in the medium - to - long term. Oil prices are expected to be volatile at the end of April and beginning of May [4][73]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In early April, due to the US imposing tariffs on China and OPEC +'s unexpected decision to increase production in May, oil prices tumbled. Brent's main contract fell below $60 per barrel. As the macro - sentiment eased, oil prices rebounded. By the end of the month, oil prices first rose and then fell due to tariff policy fluctuations and internal disagreements within OPEC +, with Brent's main contract (July) falling back to around $65 per barrel [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Short - term: The overall supply and demand are stable, the US shows no definite signs of recession, and there is room for crude oil valuation repair. The main drivers are Sino - US tariff games, US - Iran negotiation progress, and OPEC production policies. - Medium - term: It is necessary to verify the US recession based on economic data. OPEC may continue to "push down prices" on the supply side, and oil prices face pressure. At the end of April and beginning of May, oil prices are expected to be volatile [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuations, bearish in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. The cracking spread of domestic gasoline is stable, while that of diesel is weak. - Options: Buy out - of - the - money put options on rallies [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In April, crude oil prices fluctuated sharply due to macro and geopolitical factors. At the beginning of the month, global trade wars caused a sharp decline in crude oil and asphalt prices. In the middle of the month, prices rebounded due to sanctions on Iran and OPEC +'s compensation plans. In the late month, prices fluctuated due to trade wars and OPEC + internal disagreements. The discount of diluted asphalt remained at - $5.5 per barrel, and the basis and valuations increased [8]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - OPEC: In March, OPEC 12 countries' production decreased by 78,000 barrels per day. OPEC + (excluding exempted countries) slightly exceeded the production target. In early April, OPEC + decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May. In mid - April, OPEC + submitted a compensation plan. If implemented, supply pressure will be concentrated after the fourth quarter [13]. - US: Shale oil production costs are rising, and the growth rate of production has been revised down. In the third week of April, production was flat at 13.458 million barrels per day [16][17]. - Russia: In April, oil exports were stable. Falling oil prices led to a decline in export revenue but also increased the motivation to increase production. Future OPEC + policies need to be monitored [24][27]. - Iran: US sanctions have led to a decrease in exports and an increase in floating storage. US - Iran negotiations are ongoing, and the outcome is uncertain [29]. - Venezuela: US sanctions will lead to a decline in production and exports, but exports to China are expected to increase. IEA predicts a quarterly decline in production [32]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - US: Oil product consumption is stable. Gasoline demand recovered after the Easter holiday, diesel demand stabilized in April, and jet fuel demand reached a five - year high [35]. - China: Since April, the operation rate of state - owned refineries has declined, while that of independent refineries has increased. The overall crude oil processing volume is at the average level of the past three years [39][40]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation - Inventory: Global crude oil inventory decreased in December 2024 and January 2025, then increased in February and March. In early April, it accelerated the increase and approached the five - year average. In late April, China's inventory decreased, driving down the global total [57]. - Profit: Overseas refining margins were stable, while domestic refining margins were first pushed up by falling oil prices and then pressured during the rebound [59]. - Balance: IEA predicts that in 2025, supply will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day, demand growth will be 730,000 barrels per day, and inventory will accumulate by 700,000 barrels per day. In 2026, supply will increase by 960,000 barrels per day, demand growth will be 690,000 barrels per day, and inventory will accumulate by 970,000 barrels per day [61]. - Cost: In a moderately oversupplied situation, the market will test the marginal production cost line. Key areas to watch are Latin American deep - water oilfields and US shale oil (Bakken Basin) [66]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.3.1 Future Outlook - Short - term: Supply and demand are stable, there is room for valuation repair, and the main drivers are Sino - US tariff games and US - Iran negotiation progress. Attention should be paid to the pressure around $68 per barrel for Brent. - Medium - term: The impact of the "tariff war" will gradually appear. It is necessary to verify the US recession based on economic data, and oil prices face pressure [73]. 3.3.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuations, bearish in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Buy out - of - the - money put options on rallies [74].