沥青数据周报-20250425

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, asphalt production increased slightly, and terminal demand recovered seasonally. Some refineries fulfilled contracts at the end of the month, boosting overall shipments. However, demand recovery was slow amidst increased production, leading to inventory accumulation. With rising and stabilizing temperatures in the north and the absence of the rainy season in the south, road construction conditions have improved, and demand is expected to continue rising under the catch - up construction expectations in the final year of the 14th Five - Year Plan. Currently, the asphalt crack spread is at a high level, with limited upside potential. It may fluctuate under the continuous rebound of crude oil. It is advisable to wait and see. The reference support for BU2506 is 3000, and the pressure is 3600 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Profit: The asphalt crack spread decreased. The profit of independent refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units decreased, while that of major refineries increased. The production profit of asphalt decreased [4][6][8]. - Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rates of both independent and major refineries slightly decreased. However, the stable production of Xinjiang Tianze, Qilu Petrochemical, CNOOC Sichuan, and Yunnan Petrochemical, along with the resumption of asphalt production at Jiangsu Xinhai and Henan Fengli, increased the overall capacity utilization and production [4][8][19]. - Production: As of the 16th, the Longzhong petroleum asphalt operating rate was 28.7%, a 4% increase from the previous period. The large - sample production was 492,000 tons, a 13,000 - ton (2.7%) increase [19]. Demand - Shipment Volume: The weekly shipment volume increased, mainly in Shandong. The shipment volume of 54 samples reached 367,100 tons, a 14.6% increase. Shandong's shipment volume increased significantly due to the resumption of asphalt production at Shandong Dongming Petrochemical and the fulfillment of contracts by some refineries. In contrast, the shipment volume in the Northeast decreased significantly due to the impact of falling international oil prices on downstream purchasing enthusiasm [19]. - Modified Asphalt Operating Rate: Last week, the operating rates of downstream rubber shoe materials, road modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes remained flat at 23.33%, 20%, and 32% respectively. Currently, the operating rates of various modified asphalts have basically returned to seasonal levels but are still relatively low compared to historical periods. The capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt plants was 6.4%, a 1.1% increase. The resumption of work in the modified asphalt industry accelerated intermittently, especially in the north where good weather boosted production enthusiasm, while the south showed a slow increase [33]. Inventory - The weekly factory inventory, social inventory, and total inventory all increased. As of the 14th, the inventory of 54 Longzhong asphalt factories was 917,000 tons, a 0.8% (7500 - ton) increase. Except for Shandong, inventories increased in all regions, with the largest increase in the Northeast due to slow downstream demand. The inventory of 76 social warehouses was 1.393 million tons, a 1.2% (16,000 - ton) increase, mainly in Central China due to concentrated stocking by some traders [22].