Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive table of the basis rate statistics for various futures contracts, including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial instruments. It details the basis rate, changes compared to the previous day, and basis values for different contract months, along with corresponding spot prices and their sources [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metals - Copper (CU): Basis rate is 0.42%, with a spot price of 82,505 and a current - month basis of 425 [4]. - Aluminum (AL): Basis rate is - 0.05%, spot price is 20,770, and current - month basis is 5 [4]. - Zinc (ZN): Basis rate is - 0.43%, spot price is 21,870, and current - month basis is - 90 [4]. - Lead (PB): Basis rate is - 0.94%, spot price is 16,950, and current - month basis is - 120 [4]. - Tin (TI): Basis rate is 0.20%, spot price is 273,700, and current - month basis is 550 [4]. - Nickel (NI): Basis rate is 1.08%, spot price is 124,050, and current - month basis is 1660 [4]. - Industrial Silicon (TI): Basis rate is 5.20%, spot price is 9500, and current - month basis is 480 [4]. - Gold (AU): Basis rate is - 0.32%, spot price is 851.99, and current - month basis is 0.25 [4]. - Silver (AG): Basis rate is - 0.56%, spot price is 10,353, and current - month basis is - 17 [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Coke: Basis rate is - 6.98%, spot price is 1637, and current - month basis is - 122.8 [4]. -动力煤 (ZC): For Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal, basis rate is 1178% (data seems abnormal), spot price is 1270, and current - month basis is 35.5; for Shanxi Q5500 coal at Qinhuangdao Port, basis rate is - 0.25%, spot price is 707, and current - month basis is - 94.4 [4]. - Silicon Iron (SF): Basis rate is - 7.88%, spot price is 5330, and current - month basis is - 406 [4]. - Manganese Silicon (SM): Basis rate is 1.04%, spot price is 6000, and current - month basis is 62 [4]. - Stainless Steel: Basis rate is 1.31%, spot price is 13,100, and current - month basis is 70 [4]. - Glass (FG): Basis rate is - 4.72%, spot price is 1210, and current - month basis is - 60 [4]. - Methanol (MA): Basis rate is - 3.54%, spot price is 2273, and current - month basis is - 84 [4]. - Ethanol (EG): Basis rate is 1.39%, spot price is 4305, and current - month basis is 130 [4]. - PTA (TA): Basis rate is - 1.45%, spot price is 4610, and current - month basis is - 68 [4]. - Polypropylene (PP): Basis rate is 2.20%, spot price is 7050, and current - month basis is 152 [4]. - Styrene (EB): Basis rate is - 0.26%, spot price is 6940, and current - month basis is - 50 [4]. - Short - fiber: Basis rate is 1.38%, spot price is 6460, and current - month basis is 6 [4]. - Plastic: Basis rate is 1.55%, spot price is 7280, and current - month basis is 111 [4]. - PVC (V): Basis rate is 9.52%, spot price is 5405, and current - month basis is 470 [4]. - Rubber (RU): Basis rate is - 4.62%, spot price is 14,850, and current - month basis is - 720 [4]. - 20 - number Rubber (NR): Basis rate is 7.19%, spot price is 13,324, and current - month basis is 849 [4]. - Soda Ash (SA): Basis rate is - 6.84%, spot price is 1225, and current - month basis is - 90 [4]. - Urea (UR): Basis rate is - 3.82%, spot price is 1610, and current - month basis is - 64 [4]. - Paper Pulp (SP): Basis rate is 13.14%, spot price is 5725, and current - month basis is 411 [4]. - Crude Oil (SC): Basis rate is - 4.02%, spot price is 470.9, and current - month basis is - 20.6 [4]. - Fuel Oil (EU): Basis rate is 8.59%, spot price is 3135, and current - month basis is 248 [4]. - Asphalt (BU): Basis rate is 1.74%, spot price is 3500, and current - month basis is 115 [4]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): Basis rate is - 0.7%, spot price is 3424, and current - month basis is - 7 [4]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (PG): Basis rate is 5.41%, spot price is 4498, and current - month basis is 219 [4]. Agricultural Products - Threaded Steel (RB): Basis rate is 4.20%, spot price is 3300, and current - month basis is 226 [4]. - Hot - rolled Coil (HC): Basis rate is 1.85%, spot price is 3420, and current - month basis is 0 [4]. - Iron Ore: Basis rate is 4.02%, spot price is 837.9, and current - month basis is 32.4 [4]. - Soybeans: Basis rate is 1.30%, spot price is 3980, and current - month basis is 66 [4]. - Soybean Meal (M): Basis rate is - 2.25%, spot price is 2900, and current - month basis is - 67 [4]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): Basis rate is 4.75%, spot price is 2560, and current - month basis is 116 [4]. - Edible Oil: Basis rate is 3.03%, spot price is 8440, and current - month basis is 248 [4]. - Rapeseed Oil (Ol): Basis rate is - 1.0%, spot price is 10,040, and current - month basis is - 102 [4]. - Peanuts (PK): Basis rate is 10.57%, spot price is 8600, and current - month basis is 830 [4]. - Palm Oil: Basis rate is - 0.56%, spot price is 9170, and current - month basis is - 52 [4]. - Corn: Basis rate is 6.24%, spot price is 2300, and current - month basis is 167 [4]. - Corn Starch (CS): Basis rate is 3.48%, spot price is 2560, and current - month basis is 19 [4]. - Apples (AP): Basis rate is - 7.65%, spot price is 7800, and current - month basis is - 847 [4]. - Eggs (JD): Basis rate is 17.04%, spot price is 3600, and current - month basis is 228 [4]. - Live Pigs: Basis rate is - 1.05%, spot price is 12,550, and current - month basis is - 760 [4]. - Cotton (CF): Basis rate is 11.48%, spot price is 15,083, and current - month basis is 1553 [4]. - Sugar (SR): Basis rate is 7.38%, spot price is 5890, and current - month basis is 405 [4]. Financial Instruments - CSI 300 (IF): Basis rate is 0.69%, spot price is 4593.5, and current - month basis is 8.5 [4]. - SSE 50 (IH): Basis rate is - 0.03%, spot price is 2952.7, and current - month basis is - 1.1 [4]. - CSI 500 (IC): Basis rate is 2.44%, spot price is 7341.3, and current - month basis is 48.1 [4].

Maike 迈科期货 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE 100% ■基差率 ■ 历史最小值 ■ 历史最大值 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% than Relay BBE 能動 | | 國嚴 00日誌 曾 证50 ttp://www.banka.com/ 翻 日本 tige 我 出示器 846年 ี่ 酸锂 tki R/s PTA 肢球 纯碱 ttp:/ 在當 PV( 日本 2 佳钓 力煤 矿石 ID 投资咨询业务资格:陕证监许可[2015]17号 邓宏 从业资格号F0247191 投资咨询号Z0001295 ※有色金属期货价格为结算价,其他期货价格为收盘价。 1.基差率为主力合约基差率，计算公式： 基差率－ (现货价格-主力合约价格) /主力合约价格。基基率历史最值计算的样本为2015年1月1日至今。 2.数据来源： Wind金融终端、钢联数据终端。带"报价为周更数据； 带"报价现货与基准交割品有差别。 | 交易代码 | | 名称 | | 基差率 | 较昨日增减 | 当月基差 | 次月基差 ...

I. Report Summary 1. Core View The report presents the basis rate, month - on - month basis, and related price data of various futures and spot commodities, including non - ferrous metals, precious metals, steel products, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and stock index futures, providing information for investors to understand the market basis situation [4]. 2. Content Summary by Category Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): The basis rate is 0.24%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The spot price is 79,990 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 79,800 yuan, 79,780 yuan, and 79,760 yuan respectively [4]. - Aluminum (AL): The basis rate is - 0.07%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.29%. The spot price is 20,780 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 20,775 yuan, 20,795 yuan, and 20,790 yuan respectively [4]. - Zinc (ZN): The basis rate is - 0.29%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.24%. The spot price is 22,010 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 22,075 yuan, 22,085 yuan, and 22,115 yuan respectively [4]. - Lead (PB): The basis rate is - 0.79%. The spot price is 16,975 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 17,110 yuan, 17,130 yuan, and 17,135 yuan respectively [4]. - Tin (SN): The basis rate is - 0.01%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.03%. The spot price is 270,200 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 270,240 yuan, 270,460 yuan, and 270,420 yuan respectively [4]. - Nickel (NI): The basis rate is 0.93%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The spot price is 122,700 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 121,570 yuan, 121,700 yuan, and 121,890 yuan respectively [4]. - Industrial Silicon: The basis rate is 4.12%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%. The spot price is 9,035 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 8,940 yuan, 8,980 yuan, and 7,932 yuan respectively [4]. - Lithium Carbonate (LC): The basis rate is 0.95%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29%. The spot price is 73,470 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 72,620 yuan, 72,780 yuan, and 72,840 yuan respectively [4]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU): The basis rate is 0.05%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63%. The spot price is 824.53 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 824.10 yuan, 826.82 yuan, and 829.22 yuan respectively [4]. - Silver (AG): The basis rate is - 0.24%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06%. The spot price is 9,811 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 9,808 yuan, 9,835 yuan, and 9,859 yuan respectively [4]. Steel Products - Rebar (RB): The basis rate is 2.64%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. The spot price is 3,230 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 3,054 yuan, 3,147 yuan, and 3,204 yuan respectively [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil (HC): The basis rate is 0.78%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.48%. The spot price is 3,380 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 3,397 yuan, 3,354 yuan, and 3,367 yuan respectively [4]. - Iron Ore: The basis rate is 5.41%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.27%. The spot price is 843.3 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 800.0 yuan, 778.5 yuan, and 759.0 yuan respectively [4]. - Coke: The basis rate is - 3.58%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.66%. The spot price is 1,648 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 1,709.0 yuan, 1,848.0 yuan, and 1,893.5 yuan respectively [4]. - Coking Coal (JIM): The basis rate is 5.53%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.52%. The spot price is 1,270.0 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 1,203.5 yuan, 1,295.5 yuan, and 1,356.5 yuan respectively [4]. - Thermal Coal (ZC): The basis rate is 12.65%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50%. The spot price is 700.0 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are all 801.4 yuan [4]. - Ferrosilicon (SF): The basis rate is - 6.36%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.51%. The spot price is 5,390 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 5,744 yuan, 5,850 yuan, and 5,930 yuan respectively [4]. - Silicomanganese (SM): The basis rate is - 0.34%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.33%. The spot price is 5,950 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 5,970 yuan, 6,014 yuan, and 6,032 yuan respectively [4]. - Stainless Steel: The basis rate is 2.14%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.47%. The spot price is 13,150 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 12,990 yuan, 13,235 yuan, and 13,470 yuan respectively [4]. - Glass (FG): The basis rate is - 4.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. The spot price is 1,150 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 1,208 yuan, 1,328 yuan, and 1,387 yuan respectively [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The basis rate is 1.95%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The spot price is 3,980 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 3,898 yuan, 3,947 yuan, and 3,962 yuan respectively [4]. - Soybean Meal (M): The basis rate is - 2.4%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. The spot price is 2,920 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 2,993 yuan, 2,765 yuan, and 2,882 yuan respectively [4]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): The basis rate is 5.26%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.43%. The spot price is 2,600 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 2,470 yuan, 2,357 yuan, and 2,435 yuan respectively [4]. - Soybean Oil (Y): The basis rate is 3.09%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%. The spot price is 8,540 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 8,284 yuan, 8,022 yuan, and 7,946 yuan respectively [4]. - Rapeseed Oil (Ol): The basis rate is 0.76%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.35%. The spot price is 10,060 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 9,984 yuan, 9,495 yuan, and 9,415 yuan respectively [4]. - Peanuts (PK): The basis rate is 4.35%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.48%. The spot price is 8,200 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 7,844 yuan, 7,838 yuan, and 7,870 yuan respectively [4]. - Palm Oil (P): The basis rate is - 0.37%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%. The spot price is 9,270 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 9,304 yuan, 9,108 yuan, and 8,784 yuan respectively [4]. - Corn (C): The basis rate is 6.57%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.79%. The spot price is 2,320 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 2,164 yuan, 2,231 yuan, and 2,255 yuan respectively [4]. - Corn Starch (CS): The basis rate is 3.60%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%. The spot price is 2,560 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 2,487 yuan, 2,574 yuan, and 2,596 yuan respectively [4]. - Apples (AP): The basis rate is - 5.81%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10%. The spot price is 7,800 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 8,430 yuan, 8,281 yuan, and 8,237 yuan respectively [4]. - Eggs (JD): The basis rate is 16.54%. The spot price is 3,650 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 3,418 yuan, 3,450 yuan, and 3,066 yuan respectively [4]. - Live Pigs: The basis rate is 0.55%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.93%. The spot price is 12,900 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 13,765 yuan, 13,385 yuan, and 13,905 yuan respectively [4]. - Cotton (CF): The basis rate is 11.29%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.07%. The spot price is 15,319 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 13,725 yuan, 13,385 yuan, and 13,905 yuan respectively [4]. Chemical Products - Sugar (SR): The basis rate is 8.88%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.90%. The spot price is 5,960 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 5,474 yuan, 5,456 yuan, and 5,474 yuan respectively [4]. - Methanol (MA): The basis rate is - 3.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.15%. The spot price is 2,270 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 2,346 yuan, 2,385 yuan, and 2,359 yuan respectively [4]. - Ethanol (EG): The basis rate is 1.80%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.13%. The spot price is 4,345 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 4,268 yuan, 4,330 yuan, and 4,338 yuan respectively [4]. - PTA (TA): The basis rate is - 1.41%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. The spot price is 4,600 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 4,666 yuan, 4,704 yuan, and 4,740 yuan respectively [4]. - Polypropylene (PP): The basis rate is 1.79%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.82%. The spot price is 7,050 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 6,926 yuan, 6,963 yuan, and 6,931 yuan respectively [4]. - Styrene (EB): The basis rate is 0.54%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The spot price is 7,100 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 7,111 yuan, 7,202 yuan, and 6,789 yuan respectively [4]. - Short - Fiber (PF): The basis rate is 2.46%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.93%. The spot price is 6,500 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 6,368 yuan, 6,454 yuan, and 6,546 yuan respectively [4]. - Plastic: The basis rate is 1.56%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The spot price is 7,300 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 7,188 yuan, 7,233 yuan, and 7,280 yuan respectively [4]. - PVC (V): The basis rate is 9.79%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.10%. The spot price is 5,405 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 4,923 yuan, 5,228 yuan, and 5,347 yuan respectively [4]. - Rubber (RU): The basis rate is - 4.95%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. The spot price is 14,800 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 15,570 yuan, 15,555 yuan, and 15,600 yuan respectively [4]. - 20 - Numbered Rubber (NR): The basis rate is 5.77%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.74%. The spot price is 13,009 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 12,380 yuan, 12,475 yuan, and 12,440 yuan respectively [4]. - Soda Ash (SA): The basis rate is - 6.89%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.23%. The spot price is 1,216 yuan, and the prices of the current, next, and second - next month contracts are 1,306 yuan, 1,40

Supply Insights - Coking coal production from 523 sample mines reached an average of 191.22 million tons per day, up by 3.31%[44] - The average profit for independent coking enterprises increased to 23 yuan per ton, reflecting a rise of 3 yuan[20] - Coking coal total inventory increased, with independent coking plants holding 966.41 million tons, down by 10.47%[62] Demand Insights - Daily pig iron production averaged 240.75 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.09%[24] - Coking coal demand remains moderate as coking coal production is at historically low levels[49] - The total weekly output of the five major materials reached 878.06 million tons, up by 6.43%[24] Inventory Insights - Coking plant inventories increased slightly after two months of depletion, with total coking coal inventory at 888.58 million tons, up by 1.16%[28] - Steel mill inventories decreased slightly, with 247 steel mills holding 812.31 million tons, an increase of 6.51%[62] - The usable days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel mills increased to 13.07 days, up by 0.1 days[62] Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience increased risk appetite following dovish comments from Powell, with commodity prices likely to rise[5] - The coking coal index is projected to fluctuate within the range of 1100-1300[6] - The coking coal index is anticipated to operate within the range of 1650-1790[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Glass - Attention events include glass production, glass factory inventory, and glass spot prices [6] - Supply is expected to increase, with stable production last week and potential supply pressure after glass technological transformation [7] - Demand is currently at a low level but is expected to rise during the peak season [7] - Inventory has increased due to weakening speculative demand and spot sales pressure [7] - Cost has decreased, and profit has shown mixed performance [7] - Given significant macro - disturbances, it is advisable to wait and see, with the glass index operating in the range of 1090 - 1200 - 1230 [7] 纯碱 - Attention events include alkali plant maintenance, alkali plant inventory accumulation, and glass production [8] - Supply has reached a new high, which exerts downward pressure on the market [8] - Demand for heavy alkali is expected to decline, while light alkali demand is relatively stable [8] - Inventory in alkali plants continues to accumulate due to strong supply and weak demand [8] - Cost has increased, and profit has declined [8] - Considering strong macro - disturbances, it is advisable to wait and see, with the soda ash index operating in the range of 1270 - 1390 [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - Mainstream market glass prices are weakly trending downward [10] Supply - Last week, float glass production was 1.107 million tons (unchanged), and the national float glass operating rate was 75.34% (unchanged). Technological transformation may end before the peak season, leading to potential supply pressure [15] Demand - In July, the rising futures price drove mid - and downstream replenishment, which is now nearly over. Speculative sentiment has weakened, and spot prices have been falling. Current downstream demand is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to increase. On July 31, the order days of downstream deep - processing plants were 9.55 days (+0.25). Last week, the weekly apparent demand for float glass was 22.1605 million weight boxes (+1.399 million) [19] Inventory - Speculative demand has weakened, and spot - futures traders have sold off, squeezing glass factory sales and production, resulting in increased inventory. Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million weight boxes (+180,000), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 6.36 million weight boxes (-20,000) [23] Cost and Profit - Last week, glass cost decreased, and profit showed mixed performance. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1411 yuan/ton (-18 yuan); using coal - made gas was 1011 yuan/ton (-12 yuan); using petroleum coke was 1046 yuan/ton (-22 yuan) [34] Basis and Calendar Spread - As of August 22, the basis of glass 01 was - 173, glass 05 was - 269, and glass 09 was 3. The basis has a weak driving force on the market. The spread between glass 9 - 1 contracts was - 176, and between 1 - 5 contracts was - 96. There are currently no calendar spread opportunities [43][47] Soda Ash Price - The prices of light and heavy soda ash in the mainstream market are fluctuating weakly downward [50] Supply - Soda ash production has rebounded month - on - month, reaching a new weekly high, which has a certain downward driving force on the market. Last week, soda ash production was 771,400 tons (+10,100), including light soda ash production of 346,200 tons (+14,600) and heavy soda ash production of 425,200 tons (-4,500) [56] Demand - There is an expectation of reduced production in photovoltaic glass and an expected increase in float glass production. Overall, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to decline, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. Last week, the daily production of float and photovoltaic glass was 247,755 tons. The apparent demand for soda ash increased month - on - month, reaching 754,400 tons (+21,800) last week [62] Inventory - With increasing supply and decreasing demand, the inventory in alkali plants continues to accumulate. Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.9108 million tons (+17,000), including light soda ash inventory of 773,100 tons (+13,100) and heavy soda ash inventory of 1.1377 million tons (+3,900) [69] Profit and Cost - According to Steel Union data, last week, the cost of soda ash increased, and profit declined. Currently, the cost support for heavy soda ash by the joint - alkali method in the East China region is around 1260 yuan [75] Basis, Calendar Spread, and Price Spread - As of August 22, the basis of soda ash 01 contracts was - 100, 05 contracts was - 152, and 09 contracts was 0. The basis has a weak driving force, and it is advisable to wait and see. The spread between soda ash 9 - 1 contracts was - 100, and between 1 - 5 contracts was - 53. There are currently no calendar spread opportunities. The price spread between glass and soda ash 01 contracts was - 153, 05 contracts was - 110, and 09 contracts was - 229. It is advisable to wait and see regarding the glass - soda ash price spread [82][86][91]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass - Supply remains flat, but there will be strong supply pressure in the future. The downstream deep - processing order days are still at a low level over the years. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, glass demand is expected to pick up month - on - month. Glass factory inventories have increased. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, with weak driving force for the futures market. Adopt a sideways trading approach, with the glass index operating range referring to 1100 - 1205. Key events to watch include glass production, glass factory inventories, and glass spot prices [4]. 纯碱 - Soda ash production has recovered to a high level, and demand is expected to decline under pressure. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the trend of inventory accumulation in soda ash plants is hard to reverse. Although the industry fundamentals are bearish, considering that it is the peak maintenance season, there are still disturbances on the supply side. It is advisable to wait and see for the time being. The operating range of the soda ash index refers to 1300 - 1450. Key events to watch include soda ash plant maintenance, soda ash plant inventory accumulation, and glass production [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Price - The mainstream market glass prices are running weakly [8]. Supply - The production of float glass was flat week - on - week, and there will be certain supply pressure in the future. Glass technical transformation may end before the peak season. Last week, the float glass production was 1.107 million tons (+0), and the national float glass operating rate was 75.34% (+0.15) [11][13]. Demand - As of July 31, the downstream deep - processing factory order days were 9.55 days (+0.25), and downstream demand was at a low level compared with the same period over the years. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, glass demand is expected to increase month - on - month. Last week, the weekly apparent demand for float glass was 20.7615 million weight boxes (+0.769) [15][17]. Inventory - Speculative demand weakened, and futures - cash traders sold off, squeezing the production and sales of glass factories, resulting in an increase in glass factory inventories. Last week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes (+1.579). The in - plant inventory in Hubei last week was 6.38 million weight boxes (+0.49) [19][21]. Cost and Profit - Last week, glass costs decreased, and profits declined. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1429 yuan/ton (-24); using coal - made gas as fuel was 1023 yuan/ton (-1); using petroleum coke as fuel was 1068 yuan/ton (-9) [29][31]. Basis and Spread - As of August 15, the glass 01 basis was - 171; the glass 05 basis was - 269; the glass 09 basis was - 6. The basis has a weak driving force for the futures market. The glass 9 - 1 contract spread was - 165; the glass 1 - 5 contract spread was - 98. There are currently no spread trading opportunities [41][45]. Soda Ash Price - The mainstream market prices of light and heavy soda ash are oscillating weakly [48]. Supply - Last week, soda ash production increased week - on - week and was at a high level, exerting certain downward pressure on the futures market. Last week, the soda ash production was 761,300 tons (+16,700), including 331,600 tons of light soda ash (+10,400) and 429,700 tons of heavy soda ash (+6,300) [52][54]. Demand - There are expectations of production cuts in photovoltaic glass, while float glass production is expected to rise. Overall, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to decline, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. Last week, the daily production of float and photovoltaic glass was 247,755 tons. The apparent demand for soda ash increased week - on - week, reaching 732,600 tons (+57,300) last week [56][59][61]. Inventory - Supply increased while demand declined, leading to an increase in soda ash plant inventories. Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons (+28,700), including 760,000 tons of light soda ash inventory (+42,400) and 1.1338 million tons of heavy soda ash inventory (-13,700) [64][66]. Cost and Profit - According to Steel Union data, last week, soda ash costs increased and profits declined. Currently, the cost support for the heavy soda ash combined - soda process in the East China region is around 1240 yuan/ton [71][72]. Basis, Spread and Soda - Glass Spread - As of August 15, the soda ash 01 contract basis was - 112; the soda ash 05 contract basis was - 167; the soda ash 09 contract basis was - 10. The basis has a weak driving force, and it is advisable to wait and see. The soda ash 9 - 1 contract spread was - 102; the soda ash 1 - 5 contract spread was - 55. There are currently no spread trading opportunities. The glass - soda ash 01 contract spread was - 184; the glass - soda ash 05 contract spread was - 141; the glass - soda ash 09 contract spread was - 247. It is advisable to wait and see for the glass - soda ash spread [79][83][88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - **Coke**: The sixth round of coke price increase has been implemented, leading to positive profits for coke enterprises and a rebound in coke production. Hot metal production remains at a high level, strongly supporting the demand side. Coke supply and demand are tight, and the total coke inventory is decreasing. The coking coal cost has a significant impact on coke, so attention should be paid to coal mine supply. Adopt a volatile trading strategy, with the coke index expected to trade between 1600 - 1780. Key events to watch include coke price increases/decreases, hot metal production, steel sales, and coke enterprise inventories [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by over - production inspections, coal mine production is at a low level, and the upcoming September 3 parade may further reduce production. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high. Coke production is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. The downstream replenishment intensity has slowed down, with middle and lower - stream inventories decreasing and upstream coal mine inventories increasing. There may be an expected increase in seaborne coal imports. Adopt a volatile trading strategy, with the coking coal index expected to trade between 1120 - 1300. Key events to watch include domestic coal mine production, hot metal production, Mongolian coal customs clearance, and downstream replenishment [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coke Supply - After the sixth round of price increase, coke enterprise profits turned positive, coke production of coke enterprises rebounded, while that of steel mills declined, but the total coke production increased. As of August 15, the daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.38 million tons (+0.28), that of 247 steel mill coking plants was 46.73 million tons (-0.07), and the total output was 112.11 million tons (+0.21) [16]. Profit - The sixth round of price increase led to positive profits for coke enterprises. As of August 15, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 20 yuan/ton (+36) [20]. Demand - Last week, hot metal production increased slightly month - on - month. Supported by non - five major steel products demand and good steel mill profits, the seasonal decline in hot metal production is expected to be limited and may remain at a high level, strongly supporting coke demand. As of August 15, the daily average hot metal production was 2.4066 million tons (+0.34); the weekly total output of five major steel products was 8716300 tons (+24200); the steel mill profitability rate was 65.8% (-2.6); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.22% (+0.13); the blast furnace operating rate was 83.59% (-0.16) [24]. Inventory - Last week, coke inventories at all levels decreased. Steel mills actively purchased, and the inventory of upstream coke enterprises continued to decline. The total coke inventory decreased. As of August 15, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 625100 tons (-72200); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6098000 tons (-94800); the total inventory of four major ports was 2151100 tons (-30400), and the total coke inventory was 8874200 tons (-197400) [28]. Inventory Available Days - The inventory available days of 247 steel mill sample coking plants decreased to 10.83 days (-0.08) [32]. Basis - As of August 15, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1605 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was - 125, the May contract was - 227, and the September contract was - 48. The current basis has no significant impact on the futures price [35]. Calendar Spread - As of August 15, the spread between the September - January contracts was - 76.5, and the January - May contracts was - 102. There are currently no calendar spread trading opportunities [39]. Coking Coal Supply - Affected by over - production inspections, coal mine production continued to decline, and the September 3 parade is expected to further reduce production. The daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port has recovered to over 100000 tons. Seaborne coal may have a certain increase, which will have a bearish impact on the futures market. As of August 15, the daily average raw coal output of 523 sample mines was 1879100 tons (-3600), with an operating rate of 83.73% (-0.16); the daily average output of 314 sample coal washing plants was 26400 tons (+360), with an operating rate of 36.51% (+0.29) [44]. Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - The daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port has reached over 100000 tons [46]. Demand - Coke production increased month - on - month but is at a low level compared to previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. As of August 15, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 8294100 tons (-33400), with available days of 11.93 days (-0.11), corresponding to a daily coking coal consumption of 695200 tons (+3600); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8058000 tons (-28600), with available days of 12.97 days (-0.02), and the converted daily consumption was 621300 tons (-1200); the total daily consumption was 1316500 tons (+2300) [51]. Coal Washing Plant Inventory - Due to reduced downstream replenishment enthusiasm, the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased. As of August 15, the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 2970300 tons (+89200) [55]. Inventory - After a period of replenishment, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory has weakened. Last week, coke enterprises, steel mills, and ports all reduced their inventories, while coal mine inventories increased. The total coking coal inventory decreased. As of August 15, the total port inventory was 2554900 tons (-218500); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8058000 tons (-28600); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 9768800 tons (-110400); the clean coal inventory of 532 sample mines was 2576700 tons (+120100); the total coking coal inventory was 22958400 tons (-237400). The available days of coking coal for 230 independent coking plants were 11.93 days (-0.11); the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel enterprises were 12.97 days (-0.02) [62]. Basis - As of August 15, the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Tangshan was 1008 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was - 223, the May contract was - 279, and the September contract was - 73. The current basis has no significant impact on the futures price [67]. Calendar Spread - As of August 15, the spread between the September - January contracts was - 149.5, and the January - May contracts was - 56. There are currently no calendar spread trading opportunities [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Coke - The sixth round of coke price increase has started, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Coke enterprise profits have significantly improved, coke production from coke enterprises has increased, while that from steel mills has declined, leading to an overall rise in total coke production. - Last week, the molten iron output decreased slightly on a weekly basis. With the support of non - five major steel products demand, the seasonal decline of molten iron output is expected to be limited and may remain at a high level, which will support the futures market. - Coke enterprise inventory has decreased, steel mill inventory has declined, port inventory has increased on a weekly basis, and the total coke inventory has decreased. - Currently, market sentiment has cooled, and the futures market has returned to the industrial logic. With the sixth round of price increase, coke enterprise profits have recovered significantly, and coke production has slightly increased. The high molten iron output and non - five major steel products demand are expected to limit the decline of molten iron output. Given the relatively high current steel mill inventory level, the subsequent restocking willingness is expected to decline. The coking coal cost has a significant impact on coke, and there are still fluctuations at the coal mine end. A bullish and volatile approach is recommended. The operating range of the coke index is expected to be between 1630 - 1790 [5]. Coking Coal - Affected by over - production inspections, coal mine production has significantly declined. The subsequent military parade on September 3 is expected to further reduce coal mine production. The daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port has recovered to over 100,000 tons. - Coke production has increased on a weekly basis but remains at a low level compared to previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. - After a period of restocking, the current restocking willingness of downstream enterprises has weakened, and the pace of coal mine inventory reduction has significantly slowed down. Last week, coke enterprises reduced inventory, steel mills restocked, and ports reduced inventory. The total coking coal inventory has decreased. - Under the influence of over - production inspections, coal mine production has significantly contracted. Coupled with the upcoming military parade on September 3, coal mine production may continue to be affected. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains at a high level. Coke production is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. The restocking intensity of coking coal downstream has slowed down, and coal mine inventory has slightly decreased. Currently, coking coal supply has contracted while the demand side still has support, with a relatively good fundamental situation. A bullish and volatile view is taken, and the operating range of the coking coal index is expected to be between 1120 - 1290 [6]. Summary by Directory Coke Supply - The sixth round of coke price increase has started, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Coke enterprise profits have significantly improved, coke production from coke enterprises has increased, while that from steel mills has declined, leading to an overall rise in total coke production. As of August 8, the daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.1 tons (+0.29), that of 247 steel mill coking plants was 46.8 tons (-0.17), and the total output of all - sample coke enterprises and 247 steel mills was 111.9 tons (+0.12) [5][15]. Profit - The sixth round of price increase has started, and coke enterprise profits have significantly improved. As of August 8, the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises was - 16 yuan/ton (+29) [17][19]. Demand - Last week, the molten iron output decreased slightly on a weekly basis. With the support of non - five major steel products demand, the seasonal decline of molten iron output is expected to be limited and may remain at a high level, which will support the futures market. As of August 8, the daily average molten iron output was 240.32 tons (-0.39); the weekly total output of five major steel products was 869.21 tons (+1.79); the steel mill profitability rate was 68.4% (+3.03); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.09% (-0.15); the blast furnace operation rate was 83.75% (+0.29) [21][23]. Inventory - Coke enterprise inventory has decreased, steel mill inventory has declined, port inventory has increased on a weekly basis, and the total coke inventory has decreased. As of August 8, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 69.73 tons (-3.89); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 619.28 tons (-7.41); the total coke inventory of four major ports was 218.15 tons (+3.05); the total coke inventory was 907.16 tons (-8.25) [25][27]. Inventory Available Days - The inventory available days of 247 steel mill sample coking plants was 10.91 days (-0.26) [31]. Basis - As of August 8, the basis of the coke 01 contract was - 151, the basis of the 05 contract was - 234, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 70. Currently, the basis has no obvious driving effect on the futures market [34]. Calendar Spread - As of August 8, the 9 - 1 contract spread was - 80.5, and the 1 - 5 contract spread was - 83. There are currently no calendar spread opportunities [38]. Coking Coal Supply - Affected by over - production inspections, coal mine production has significantly declined. The subsequent military parade on September 3 is expected to further reduce coal mine production. The daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port has recovered to over 100,000 tons. As of August 8, the daily average output of 523 sample mines was 188.27 tons (-5.29), with an operation rate of 83.89% (-2.42); the daily average output of coal washing plants was 52.14 tons (-0.01), with an operation rate of 61.51% (-0.8) [42][44]. Demand - Coke production has increased on a weekly basis but remains at a low level compared to previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. As of August 8, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 832.75 tons (-11.31), with available days of 12.04 days (-0.21), corresponding to a daily coking coal consumption of 69.17 tons (+0.26); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 808.66 tons (+4.87), with available days of 12.99 days (+0.12), and the converted daily consumption was 62.25 tons (-0.2); the total daily consumption was 131.42 tons (+0.06) [49][51]. Washery Inventory - As of August 8, the raw coal inventory of coal washing plants was 277.1 tons (-15.43); the clean coal inventory was 166.38 tons (-9.23) [53][55]. Inventory - After a period of restocking, the current restocking willingness of downstream enterprises has weakened, and the pace of coal mine inventory reduction has significantly slowed down. Last week, coke enterprises reduced inventory, steel mills restocked, and ports reduced inventory. The total coking coal inventory has decreased. As of August 8, the port inventory was 277.34 tons (-4.77); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 808.66 tons (+4.87); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 987.92 tons (-4.81); the clean coal inventory of 532 sample mines was 245.66 tons (-2.6); the total coking coal inventory was 2319.58 tons (-7.31). The available days of coking coal for 230 independent coking plants were 12.04 days (-0.21); the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel enterprises were 12.99 days (+0.12) [57][62]. Basis - As of August 8, the basis of the coking coal 01 contract was - 220, the basis of the 05 contract was - 259, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 62. Currently, the basis has a downward driving effect on the futures market [67]. Calendar Spread - As of August 8, the 9 - 1 contract spread was - 157.5, and the 1 - 5 contract spread was - 39. There are currently no calendar spread opportunities [71].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the basis rate, changes compared to the previous day, current - month basis, next - month basis, subsequent - month basis, contract prices, and spot prices of various futures on July 22, 2025, including non - ferrous metals, precious metals, industrial products, agricultural products, and financial futures [4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): Basis rate is 0.41%, down 0.04% from yesterday, current - month basis is 325, spot price is 79,555 [4]. - Aluminum (AL): Basis rate is 0.70%, down 0.25% from yesterday, current - month basis is 110, spot price is 20,890 [4]. - Zinc (ZN): Basis rate is 0.15%, up 0.06% from yesterday, current - month basis is 70, spot price is 22,820 [4]. - Tin (SN): Basis rate is 0.61%, up 0.01% from yesterday, current - month basis is 1,630, spot price is 267,200 [4]. - Nickel (NI): Basis rate is 0.95%, down 0.09% from yesterday, current - month basis is 1,160, spot price is 122,850 [4]. - Industrial Silicon: Basis rate is 4.28%, down 1.73% from yesterday, current - month basis is 415, spot price is 9,500 [4]. - Lithium Carbonate (LC): Basis rate is - 4.14%, down 0.04% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 2,880, spot price is 68,020 [4]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU): Basis rate is - 0.60%, down 0.13% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 2.32, spot price is 777.00 [4]. - Silver (AG): Basis rate is - 0.49%, up 0.18% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 16, spot price is 9,226 [4]. Industrial Products - Rebar (RB): Basis rate is 3.29%, down 0.62% from yesterday, current - month basis is 106, spot price is 3,330 [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil (HC): Basis rate is 1.06%, down 0.45% from yesterday, current - month basis is 36, spot price is 3,430 [4]. - Iron Ore: Basis rate is 4.64%, unchanged from yesterday, current - month basis is 36.5, spot price is 821.5 [4]. - Coke: Basis rate is - 7.93%, down 0.20% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 127.1, spot price is 1,476 [4]. - Coking Coal (JIM): Basis rate is 9.34%, down 9.45% from yesterday, current - month basis is 94.0, spot price is 1,100 [4]. - Power Coal (ZC): Basis rate is 20.14%, up 0.25% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 161.4, spot price is 640 [4]. - Ferrosilicon (SF): Basis rate is - 6.32%, down 1.63% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 358, spot price is 5,310 [4]. - Ferromanganese (SM): Basis rate is - 1.08%, down 1.87% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 64, spot price is 5,850 [4]. - Stainless Steel: Basis rate is - 0.43%, down 0.62% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 25, spot price is 12,850 [4]. - Glass (FG): Basis rate is 0.60%, down 6.71% from yesterday, current - month basis is 7, spot price is 1,180 [4]. Grains and Oils - Soybeans: Basis rate is - 5.69%, down 0.23% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 239, spot price is 3,960 [4]. - Soybean Meal (M): Basis rate is - 5.83%, down 0.40% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 179, spot price is 2,890 [4]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): Basis rate is - 3.19%, up 0.19% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 87, spot price is 2,640 [4]. - Soybean Oil (V): Basis rate is 3.19%, up 0.86% from yesterday, current - month basis is 258, spot price is 8,350 [4]. - Rapeseed Oil (Ol): Basis rate is 0.77%, unchanged from yesterday, current - month basis is 74, spot price is 9,660 [4]. - Peanuts: Basis rate is 9.68%, up 0.21% from yesterday, current - month basis is 794, spot price is 9,000 [4]. - Palm Oil: Basis rate is 0.67%, up 0.61% from yesterday, current - month basis is 60, spot price is 8,970 [4]. - Corn: Basis rate is 0.00%, down 0.26% from yesterday, current - month basis is 0, spot price is 2,320 [4]. - Corn Starch (CS): Basis rate is 0.60%, down 0.23% from yesterday, current - month basis is 16, spot price is 2,680 [4]. Agricultural and Sideline Products - Apples (AP): Basis rate is - 1.55%, down 0.50% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 123, spot price is 7,800 [4]. - Eggs (JD): Basis rate is - 12.54%, down 1.00% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 456, spot price is 3,180 [4]. - Hogs (LH): Basis rate is 0.24%, down 1.63% from yesterday, current - month basis is 0, spot price is 14,400 [4]. - Cotton (CF): Basis rate is 9.90%, up 1.22% from yesterday, current - month basis is 1,404, spot price is 15,589 [4]. Soft Commodities - Sugar (SR): Basis rate is 4.81%, down 0.23% from yesterday, current - month basis is 281, spot price is 6,120 [4]. - Methanol (MA): Basis rate is 0.89%, down 0.80% from yesterday, current - month basis is 22, spot price is 2,433 [4]. - Ethanol (EG): Basis rate is 1.47%, up 0.13% from yesterday, current - month basis is 65, spot price is 4,475 [4]. - PTA (TA): Basis rate is 0.21%, down 0.34% from yesterday, current - month basis is 10, spot price is 4,790 [4]. - Polypropylene (PP): Basis rate is 3.23%, down 1.15% from yesterday, current - month basis is 229, spot price is 7,320 [4]. - Styrene (EB): Basis rate is 0.91%, down 0.36% from yesterday, current - month basis is 137, spot price is 7,560 [4]. - Short - Fiber (PF): Basis rate is 3.39%, down 0.97% from yesterday, current - month basis is 218, spot price is 6,650 [4]. - Plastic: Basis rate is - 0.55%, down 1.02% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 40, spot price is 7,250 [4]. - PVC (V): Basis rate is 5.61%, down 3.87% from yesterday, current - month basis is 287, spot price is 5,405 [4]. - Rubber (RU): Basis rate is - 0.30%, down 0.23% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 45, spot price is 14,850 [4]. - 20 - Number Rubber (NR): Basis rate is 1.31%, down 0.36% from yesterday, current - month basis is 167, spot price is 12,917 [4]. - Soda Ash (SA): Basis rate is - 0.77%, up 0.05% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 10, spot price is 1,285 [4]. - Urea (UR): Basis rate is 1.55%, down 2.18% from yesterday, current - month basis is 28, spot price is 1,840 [4]. - Pulp (SP): Basis rate is 11.78%, down 0.89% from yesterday, current - month basis is 629, spot price is 5,963 [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil (SC): Basis rate is - 5.41%, up 3.12% from yesterday, current - month basis is - 27.7, spot price is 484.6 [4]. - Fuel Oil (EU): Basis rate is 4.30%, down 0.72% from yesterday, current - month basis is 126, spot price is 3,050 [4]. - Asphalt (BU): Basis rate is 5.41%, up 0.90% from yesterday, current - month basis is 198, spot price is 3,855 [4]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): Basis rate is 2.30%, up 1.65% from yesterday, current - month basis is 82, spot price is 3,685 [4]. - LPG (PG): Basis rate is 10.14%, down 0.84% from yesterday, current - month basis is 464, spot price is 4,498 [4]. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): Basis rate is 0.51%, up 0.10% from yesterday, current - month basis is 11.0, spot price is 4,085.6 [4]. - SSE 50 (IH): Basis rate is 0.04%, up 0.13% from yesterday, current - month basis is 1.2, spot price is 2,772.2 [4]. - CSI 500 (IC): Basis rate is 1.75%, up 0.10% from yesterday, current - month basis is 54.7, spot price is 6,161.3 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Coke - Supply: The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, improving coke enterprises' profits. Coke enterprise production has increased month - on - month, while steel mill coke production has decreased slightly, with total coke production rising slightly. The second round of price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton will be implemented this Tuesday [5][13]. - Demand: Last week, hot metal production unexpectedly increased, remaining at a relatively high level, providing strong support for coke demand. As of July 18, the daily average hot metal production was 2.4244 million tons (+2630) [5][21]. - Inventory: The rising futures market has stimulated downstream replenishment. Coke enterprise inventories have decreased, steel mill inventories have increased, and port inventories have decreased month - on - month, resulting in a decline in total coke inventories [5][25]. - Conclusion: Driven by strong macro sentiment and improved fundamentals, a short - term long strategy is recommended. The coke index is expected to trade in the range of 1500 - 1540 - 1670 [5]. Coking Coal - Supply: Previously shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production, but environmental inspections are still affecting output, leading to a slow recovery in domestic coal production. Mongolian coal customs clearance has gradually recovered after the Mongolian National Day [6][42]. - Demand: Coke production has increased month - on - month but remains at a historically low level, providing moderately weak support for coking coal demand in the short term [6][50]. - Inventory: Rising coking coal futures and spot prices have stimulated speculative demand and downstream replenishment. Coal mine inventories have continued to decline, while coke enterprise and steel mill coking coal inventories have increased month - on - month, with port inventories slightly decreasing and total coking coal inventories increasing [6][61]. - Conclusion: Driven by strong macro sentiment, the futures market has risen, leading to a significant improvement in spot sales and a joint increase in futures and spot prices. A short - term long strategy is recommended. The coking coal index is expected to trade in the range of 930 - 1060 [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke Supply - Coke enterprise production has increased month - on - month, while steel mill coke production has decreased slightly, with total coke production rising slightly. As of July 18, the daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 642,100 tons (+130), and the daily average production of 247 steel mill coking plants was 470,900 tons (-100), with a total production of 1.113 million tons (+30) [13]. Profit - After the first round of price increase, coke enterprises' profits have recovered. As of July 18, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 43 yuan/ton (+20) [17]. Demand - Hot metal production unexpectedly increased, remaining at a relatively high level, providing strong support for coke demand. As of July 18, the daily average hot metal production was 2.4244 million tons (+2630); the weekly total production of five major steel products was 8.6819 million tons (-4530); the steel mill profitability rate was 60.17% (+0.43); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.89% (-0.99); and the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.46% (+0.31) [21]. Inventory - Coke enterprise inventories have decreased, steel mill inventories have increased, and port inventories have decreased month - on - month, resulting in a decline in total coke inventories. As of July 18, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 875,500 tons (-55,300); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3899 million tons (+11,900); the total inventory of four major ports was 1.9911 million tons (-9700); and the total coke inventory was 9.2565 million tons (-53,100) [25]. Inventory Available Days - The inventory available days of steel mill coke have decreased month - on - month. The inventory available days of 247 steel mill sample coking plants were 11.46 days (-0.18) [29]. Basis - As of July 18, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1401 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was - 162, the basis of the May contract was - 197, and the basis of the September contract was - 117. There is currently no basis - driven opportunity [32]. Calendar Spread - As of July 18, the spread between the September - January contracts was - 45, and the spread between the January - May contracts was - 35 [36]. Coking Coal Supply - Domestic coal production is recovering slowly due to environmental inspections, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is gradually resuming. As of July 18, the daily average production of 523 sample mines was 1.9288 million tons (+10,500), with an operating rate of 86.07% (+0.55); the daily average production of coal preparation plants was 53.38 tons (+0.79), with an operating rate of 62.85% (+0.53) [42]. Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - Mongolian coal customs clearance has gradually recovered after the Mongolian National Day [46]. Demand - Coke production has increased month - on - month but remains at a historically low level, providing moderately weak support for coking coal demand in the short term. As of July 18, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 7.9019 million tons (+377,500), with available days of 11.56 days (+0.53), corresponding to a daily coking coal consumption of 683,600 tons (+1400); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.911 million tons (+81,700), with available days of 12.63 days (+0.15), corresponding to a daily consumption of 626,400 tons (-1000); and the total daily consumption was 1.3099 million tons (+400) [50]. Coal Preparation Plant Inventory - As of July 18, the raw coal inventory of coal preparation plants was 2.9869 million tons (-20,800), and the clean coal inventory was 1.9154 million tons (-55,300) [54]. Inventory - Coal mine inventories have decreased significantly, while coke enterprise and steel mill inventories have increased. As of July 18, the port inventory was 321,500 tons (-140); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.911 million tons (+81,700); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 9.2911 million tons (+367,600); the clean coal inventory of 532 sample mines was 3.3907 million tons (-381,100); and the total coking coal inventory was 23.8078 million tons (+66,800). The available days of coking coal for 230 independent coking plants were 11.56 days (+0.53), and the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel enterprises were 12.63 days (+0.15) [61]. Basis - As of July 18, the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal in Tangshan was 918 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was - 98, the basis of the May contract was - 114, and the basis of the September contract was - 49. There is currently no basis - driven opportunity [66]. Calendar Spread - As of July 18, the spread between the September - January contracts was - 49.5, and the spread between the January - May contracts was - 16. There is currently no calendar - spread opportunity [70].