www.mkqh.com 双焦供应端收缩，铁水产量继续下行 投研服务中心——符佳敏 2025.06.16 @2019 Maike Futures 焦炭核心观点 2 - 供给：焦炭第三轮提降落地，后续仍有一轮提降预期。焦企利润环比下滑，部 分地区开展环保监察，焦企开工受限，焦炭产量下滑。钢厂焦炭产量变化不大。 焦炭总产量环比下滑。 - 需求：铁水产量继续回落，下滑幅度较小。钢材需求淡季来临，铁水产量后续 将维持下降趋势，焦炭需求将走弱。 - 库存：贸易商积极去库，铁水产量高位回落，钢材需求淡季来临，下游采购谨 慎。上周焦炭各环节库存均下滑，总库存下降。 - 结论及观点：焦炭第三轮提降落地，后续仍有一轮提降预期。焦企利润下滑叠 加环保监察影响，焦炭产量下滑。钢材面临季节性淡季，铁水产量将继续下滑， 上周日均铁水产量241.61万吨（-0.19）。上周焦炭各环节库存均下滑。焦煤 供应端扰动较大，关注成本端情况，回调偏多思路对待，注意控制风险，焦炭 指数运行区间参考1300-1410。 - 关注事件：焦炭提涨/提降，铁水产量，钢材成交，焦企库存。 焦煤核心观点 双焦价格走弱 焦炭第三轮提降落地，双焦价格偏弱运行。 数 ...

| 交易代码 | 当月基差 | 次月合约 | 再次月合约 | 现货价格 | 较昨日增减 | 再次月基差 | 基差率 | 次月基差 | 当月合约 | 名称 | 现货价格来源 | 0.44% | SMM 1#电解铜 | -0.27% | 78050 | 77850 | 78645 | 铜 | CU | 795 | 78300 | 345 | રેત્રે ર | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铝 | SMM A00铝 | 1.18% | 240 | 20390 | 20175 | 20030 | 20630 | AL | -0.32% | 455 | 600 | 锌 | ZN | 0.92% | 21520 | -0.40% | 22000 | SMM 0#锌锭 | 200 | 480 | ર્ભર | 21345 | 21800 | ...

Maike 迈科期货 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE www.mkgh.com 迈科期货基差统计表 2025年05月27日9:00 1.基差率为主力合约基差率，计算公式： 基差率－ (现货价格-主力合约价格) /主力合约价格。基基率历史最值计算的样本为2015年1月1日至今。 2.数据来源： Wind金融终端、钢联数据终端。带"报价为周更数据； 带"报价现货与基准交割品有差别。 | 交易代码 | 再次月合约 | 较昨日增减 | 当月基差 | 次月基差 | 次月合约 | 现货价格 | 基差率 | 再次月基差 | 景自合约 | 现货价格来源 | 名称 | 0.15% | SMM 1#电解铜 | 78590 | 0.41% | 78270 | 77590 | 铜 | 1000 | CU | 77910 | 320 | 680 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, asphalt production increased slightly, and terminal demand recovered seasonally. Some refineries fulfilled contracts at the end of the month, boosting overall shipments. However, demand recovery was slow amidst increased production, leading to inventory accumulation. With rising and stabilizing temperatures in the north and the absence of the rainy season in the south, road construction conditions have improved, and demand is expected to continue rising under the catch - up construction expectations in the final year of the 14th Five - Year Plan. Currently, the asphalt crack spread is at a high level, with limited upside potential. It may fluctuate under the continuous rebound of crude oil. It is advisable to wait and see. The reference support for BU2506 is 3000, and the pressure is 3600 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Profit**: The asphalt crack spread decreased. The profit of independent refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units decreased, while that of major refineries increased. The production profit of asphalt decreased [4][6][8]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rates of both independent and major refineries slightly decreased. However, the stable production of Xinjiang Tianze, Qilu Petrochemical, CNOOC Sichuan, and Yunnan Petrochemical, along with the resumption of asphalt production at Jiangsu Xinhai and Henan Fengli, increased the overall capacity utilization and production [4][8][19]. - **Production**: As of the 16th, the Longzhong petroleum asphalt operating rate was 28.7%, a 4% increase from the previous period. The large - sample production was 492,000 tons, a 13,000 - ton (2.7%) increase [19]. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: The weekly shipment volume increased, mainly in Shandong. The shipment volume of 54 samples reached 367,100 tons, a 14.6% increase. Shandong's shipment volume increased significantly due to the resumption of asphalt production at Shandong Dongming Petrochemical and the fulfillment of contracts by some refineries. In contrast, the shipment volume in the Northeast decreased significantly due to the impact of falling international oil prices on downstream purchasing enthusiasm [19]. - **Modified Asphalt Operating Rate**: Last week, the operating rates of downstream rubber shoe materials, road modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes remained flat at 23.33%, 20%, and 32% respectively. Currently, the operating rates of various modified asphalts have basically returned to seasonal levels but are still relatively low compared to historical periods. The capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt plants was 6.4%, a 1.1% increase. The resumption of work in the modified asphalt industry accelerated intermittently, especially in the north where good weather boosted production enthusiasm, while the south showed a slow increase [33]. Inventory - The weekly factory inventory, social inventory, and total inventory all increased. As of the 14th, the inventory of 54 Longzhong asphalt factories was 917,000 tons, a 0.8% (7500 - ton) increase. Except for Shandong, inventories increased in all regions, with the largest increase in the Northeast due to slow downstream demand. The inventory of 76 social warehouses was 1.393 million tons, a 1.2% (16,000 - ton) increase, mainly in Central China due to concentrated stocking by some traders [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust. Policy changes are frequent, and risks should be controlled. The reference price ranges for the main contracts are 7500 - 7800 for soybean oil, 7900 - 8200 for palm oil, and 9100 - 9400 for rapeseed oil [40] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Production and Inventory**: High - frequency data shows a 4% increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 15 days of April. With more rainfall in the next 1 - 2 weeks in southern Malaysia, April production is expected to reach the 5 - year average. In March, production was 1.39 million tons, up 16.76% month - on - month, and the end - of - March inventory was 1.56 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month, still at a relatively low level [6][9] - **Export**: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 15 increased 7.05% month - on - month. India's import profit has improved, and it may increase palm oil purchases, which eases the short - term inventory build - up pressure [11][15] - **Domestic Situation**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, domestic palm oil commercial inventory was 348,000 tons, down 9,000 tons from the previous week. Spot prices weakened, with a weekly decline of 170 - 270 yuan, and the basis also decreased slightly [19][23] Soybean Oil - **International Market**: CBOT soybeans and Brazilian soybean premiums show an inverse relationship. Brazilian farmers' active sales and the new soybean harvest in Argentina suppress the increase in premiums, limiting the performance of domestic soybean - related products [28] - **Domestic Situation**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, domestic soybean oil port inventory was about 687,000 tons, down 54,000 tons from the previous week. The factory operating rate recovered to nearly 40% but was still low. This week's factory soybean oil sales volume was 278,700 tons, an increase of 62,500 tons week - on - week [31][33] Rapeseed Oil - **Inventory and Sales**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, domestic rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 645,000 tons, and coastal inventory was 127,000 tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. Terminal demand was weak, and inventory increased slightly. This week's average transaction price was 9,349 yuan, down 49 yuan from last week [38]

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www.mkqh.com 宏观仍有风险，关注北美种植期天气 投研服务中心 2025.4.14 @2019 Maike Futures 豆粕 近端弱预期，宏观仍有扰动 近端弱预期，宏观仍有扰动 -国际方面： 上周美方关税政策震荡反复，对其他国家关税延迟，CBOT大豆回升。但关税政策仍极大 影响中方进口美豆意愿。全球大豆贸易流向继续重塑，显著推涨巴西大豆升贴水，抬升 国内进口大豆成本。从美豆进口季节性规律来看，远月09合约受影响更大。在新作美豆 播种面积减少的情况下，种植期天气将加大盘面波动性。但需注意巴西大豆本年度产量 增加，出口窗口的拉长或将熨平三季度美豆紧缺影响。同时关注未来中美贸易关系是否 会有缓和。 -国内供需： 当前为巴西大豆上市高峰期，进口大豆将逐步进入压榨环节，近月供应相对充足。目前 部分区域进口大豆通关速度较慢，油厂开机率下滑。关税提振市场情绪，下游买兴增加， 油厂豆粕去库。 -结论及观点： USDA4月供需报告维持此前预估，关注5月新作供需格局预估 | | | | | 全球和主要国家新作大豆供需平衡表(百万吨) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

玻璃厂库存去化，纯碱产量高位碱厂累库 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE 迈科期货投研服务中心 2025.04.07 Maike 迈科期货 www.mkqh.com @2019 Maike Futures 玻璃：下游深加工恢复较慢，玻璃厂库存去化 供应：短中期内玻璃产量变化不大，上周玻璃产量环比小幅回升。上周浮法玻璃产量110.88万吨（+0.05），全国浮法玻璃 开工率75.42%（-0.24）。 需求：3月31日下游深加工厂订单天数8.2天（+0.2），浮法玻璃周度表需2461.45万重量箱（+161.7），下游需求恢复缓 慢。中长期看，房地产竣工下行对玻璃需求有压制，但需关注二手房成交好转或将带来超预期的需求支撑。短期需警惕盘面 下行或将带动投机需求走弱。 库存：玻璃产销好转，玻璃厂库存去化。湖北地区玻璃厂库存去化。上周全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6575.7万重箱（一 125.5）。上周湖北厂内库存580万重量箱（-55.4）。 成本与利润：玻璃成本环比下滑，价格略有上升，上周利润环比回升。 结论及观点：美国对华关税政策带动市场情绪悲观，风险 ...