财政扩张：规律、方向、斜率

Group 1: Fiscal Expansion Patterns - Fiscal expansion is expected to accelerate in Q2, with established debt issuance increasing and incremental debt potentially following suit[2] - The projected growth rate for broad fiscal expenditure in Q2 is estimated to be between -0.6% and 10.4%, compared to 4.3% in Q1 and a historical average of 1.8% from 2019 to 2024[6] - If new special bonds are issued at an accelerated pace, the growth rate could be even higher[6] Group 2: Debt Issuance Insights - Established debt for this year includes a deficit of CNY 5.66 trillion, CNY 1.3 trillion in ultra-long-term special bonds, and CNY 4.4 trillion in new special bonds[2] - In Q2, new special bond issuance is projected to reach CNY 1.2 trillion, significantly higher than CNY 859.8 billion in the same period last year[3] - Historical patterns indicate that incremental debt policies are often implemented between late June and late October[3] Group 3: Fiscal Direction and Focus - In Q1, fiscal policy focused on consumer support, with social security and education expenditures increasing by 7.9% and 7.8% respectively[6] - Investment spending is expected to marginally increase in Q2, driven by the need to counteract tariff uncertainties and support local government initiatives[6] - The progress of deficit bonds aimed at consumer support was faster than that for investment, with completion rates of 30.9% for deficit bonds compared to 21.3% for non-deficit bonds[6]