从产业结构调整看用电量与GDP增速差

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The gap between electricity consumption growth and GDP growth is expanding, with electricity elasticity coefficients for 2022-2024 projected at 1.16, 1.24, and 1.36 respectively [11][16] - The structural changes in the economy are driving the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth, with the tertiary industry becoming a significant driver of growth [2][28] - The second industry has a significantly higher unit GDP electricity consumption compared to the tertiary industry, indicating a shift in energy consumption patterns [19][20] Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Consumption and GDP Growth Gap - The analysis of the past decade shows three phases: 2015-2018 (divergent trends), 2018-2020 (convergent trends), and 2020-2024 (growing divergence) [11][16] 2. Structural Adjustments in the Economy - The tertiary industry has consistently supported GDP growth, comprising over 50% of GDP from 2015 to 2024, while the second industry remains dominant in electricity consumption, accounting for 64.83% by 2024 [2][19] - The unit GDP electricity consumption for the second industry is 0.137 KWh/¥, while for the tertiary industry it is only 0.025 KWh/¥ in 2024 [19][20] 3. Future Outlook on Electricity and GDP Growth Gap - The tertiary industry's increasing share in the economy is expected to continue, with significant growth in emerging service sectors like charging services and internet data services, which will drive electricity demand [30][32] - The first quarter of 2025 shows the tertiary industry's GDP share at 61.2%, indicating a sustained trend towards service-oriented economic growth [28][34] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the thermal power sector such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Zhejiang Energy, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Sichuan Investment Energy [32]