24年绿证核发交易量爆发增长，关注垃圾焚烧发电公司绿证增收弥补国补退坡

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the environmental protection sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in the issuance and trading volume of green certificates in 2024, with a focus on how waste incineration power companies can leverage green certificate revenue to offset the decline in national subsidies [2][15]. - The average trading price of green certificates in 2024 is noted to be 5.59 yuan per certificate, indicating low market activity and limited short-term profit contribution for companies [2][30]. - The report emphasizes the potential for increased demand for green certificates as policies encourage high-energy-consuming industries to purchase green electricity certificates [2][22]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of April 25, the environmental protection sector rose by 1.02%, outperforming the broader market, with specific sub-sectors like waste incineration and resource recovery showing notable gains [8][10]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the recent announcement from the National Energy Administration regarding the upgrade of green certificate cancellation functions, enhancing the trading system's efficiency [31]. - It also mentions the implementation of low emission technology guidelines for waste incineration plants in Zhejiang Province [31][34]. Special Topic - The report details the explosive growth in green certificate issuance and trading volume in 2024, with a total issuance of 4.955 billion certificates, a year-on-year increase of 21 times, and a trading volume of 553 million certificates, a fourfold increase [15][19]. - The report notes that the manufacturing sector accounts for nearly 70% of green certificate purchases, with data centers emerging as a new growth area for green certificate consumption [19][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will continue to drive high demand for energy-saving and environmental protection initiatives, particularly in the water and waste incineration sectors, which are expected to maintain robust profitability and cash flow [40]. - Key recommendations include companies like Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to companies such as Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co., Ltd [40]. Company Announcements - The report includes financial performance highlights from various companies in the sector, indicating growth in revenue and net profit for several firms, such as Lankun Environment and Junxin Co., Ltd [36][37][38].