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425政治局会议点评:持续巩固房地产稳定态势,加量好房子、优化收储、推进城改
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-04-26 13:44

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The meeting emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market as it plays a crucial role in supporting economic growth and domestic demand. The focus is on both the quantity and price aspects of real estate, which contribute significantly to investment and consumption [5]. - There is a strong push for urban renewal initiatives, with an emphasis on accelerating the transformation of urban villages and dilapidated housing. This reflects the strategic importance of urban renewal in the current economic context [5]. - The report highlights the importance of increasing the supply of high-quality housing, indicating a shift towards supporting better housing options amidst previous restrictions on new developments [5]. - The optimization of policies regarding the acquisition of existing housing stock is noted, with expectations for targeted improvements in this area to facilitate local governments' autonomy in housing acquisition [5]. - The report suggests that the combination of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, increasing quality housing supply, and optimizing acquisition policies will likely lead to a positive impact on the real estate sector and its related industries [5]. Summary by Sections Economic Context - The report outlines that the foundation for economic recovery needs to be solidified, especially in light of increasing external shocks. The real estate sector is identified as a pillar of the national economy, crucial for stabilizing growth [5][6]. Urban Renewal - The emphasis on urban renewal has increased, with specific mention of the need for effective and orderly progress in urban village and old housing renovations. This is expected to positively influence the real estate market and related industries [5][6]. Housing Supply - The report indicates a new focus on enhancing the supply of high-quality housing, which is seen as a necessary direction for future development in the real estate market. The current housing stock is estimated at approximately 34.4 billion square meters, with high-quality housing accounting for about 8.2 billion square meters, representing a penetration rate of around 24% [5]. Policy Optimization - The report discusses the optimization of existing housing acquisition policies, which are expected to be refined to address existing bottlenecks in funding, taxation, and pricing. This is anticipated to facilitate smoother operations in the housing market [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including those with strong product capabilities and those in the secondary housing market. Specific companies mentioned include China Resources Land, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Poly Developments [5].