Minsheng Securities·2025-04-26 14:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [5]. Core Insights - OPEC+ production policies and U.S. economic policies will continue to influence oil prices in the short term. Recent statements from Kazakhstan's new energy minister and OPEC+ members regarding potential production increases have led to market concerns about supply [1][9]. - As of April 25, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.87 per barrel, down 1.60% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $63.02 per barrel, down 2.57% week-on-week [2][10]. - U.S. crude oil production remains stable at 13.46 million barrels per day, with refinery throughput increasing to 15.89 million barrels per day, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 330,000 barrels [2][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the current supply-demand dynamics in the oil market are consistent with previous predictions, indicating a price range above $60 per barrel [1][9]. Price Trends - The dollar index rose to 99.57, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.34 percentage points. Meanwhile, natural gas prices have also seen a decline, with NYMEX natural gas futures closing at $2.96 per million British thermal units, down 8.74% week-on-week [2][10][47]. Company Performance - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable production growth and low cost per barrel, such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec, which are expected to benefit from high dividend yields and improved valuations [4][12]. - Key company earnings forecasts indicate that CNOOC is projected to have an EPS of 2.90 yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of 9, while PetroChina is expected to have an EPS of 0.90 yuan with a PE ratio of 9 [5]. Market Dynamics - The report notes an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, with strategic reserves at 397.48 million barrels, up 470,000 barrels week-on-week. Conversely, gasoline inventories decreased by 448,000 barrels [3][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests two main investment themes: focusing on oil companies with strong earnings certainty and high dividends, and those in the natural gas sector that are in a growth phase, such as New Natural Gas and Zhongman Petroleum [4][12].