4月政治局会议学习体会：战略定力不改，以我为主稳中应变

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategic focus on "self-reliance" and "high-quality development" in response to increasing external uncertainties, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions and trade issues [3][4][5] - The macroeconomic policy remains proactive, with a call for more aggressive fiscal and monetary measures to support the economy, including the issuance of special bonds and maintaining liquidity [5][11] - The importance of domestic demand and consumer spending is highlighted, with initiatives aimed at increasing income for lower and middle-income groups and promoting service consumption [12][13] Economic Situation Analysis - The report notes a consistent recognition of external pressures affecting the economy, with a focus on "bottom-line thinking" to prepare for potential shocks [4] - It highlights that China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating resilience despite external uncertainties [5] - The meeting reiterates the need to "steadfastly manage our own affairs" and emphasizes the importance of high-quality development to counteract external challenges [3][5] Macroeconomic Policy - The report calls for the implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies, including the acceleration of local government special bonds and the use of structural monetary policy tools to support innovation and stabilize foreign trade [5][11] - It emphasizes the need for a consistent policy approach to enhance effectiveness and coherence in macroeconomic management [11] Domestic Demand and Livelihood - The report stresses the importance of stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, with a focus on increasing support for vulnerable sectors affected by tariffs [12][13] - It outlines measures to boost consumer spending, including removing restrictions in the consumption sector and enhancing support for service consumption [12] - The report indicates that social security and employment expenditures accounted for 18.64% of the general public budget in Q1 2025, reflecting an increase in focus on social welfare [12][20] Risk Management - The report highlights the acceleration of local government debt issuance as a means to manage risks in key areas, with a significant increase in refinancing special bonds issued in early 2025 [14] - It notes a stabilization in the real estate market, with positive growth in housing prices in major cities, indicating a shift towards a more stable policy direction [14][20] - The report calls for a more active capital market, emphasizing the need for not just stability but also increased market activity to support long-term investment [14][15] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a strategic focus on core A-share assets, particularly in the context of long-term capital inflows, while advising caution in sectors heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. [16] - It highlights the potential benefits for companies with diversified global supply chains and those less exposed to U.S. trade dynamics [16] - The report anticipates that technological self-sufficiency will accelerate in response to trade barriers, presenting long-term investment opportunities in innovative sectors [16]