国信期货有色（铝、氧化铝）月报：供应过剩预期限制氧化铝反弹空间，沪铝等待新一轮宏观指引-20250427

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals market is in a resonance period of "black swan shocks" and "gray rhino risks". After the short - term emotional impact of the trade war, the low domestic inventory, policy support, industrial resilience, and long - term scarcity of resources will limit the downside space. In May, there is a risk of the demand side transitioning to the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of domestic macro - favorable policy expectations on prices and the phased support effect on demand. It is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will fluctuate strongly, with the price range between 19,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. For alumina, it is expected to continue box - type fluctuations, with the price range between 2,700 - 3,200 yuan/ton [3][4][148]. - The US tariff policy is in a game stage, with uncertainties in the final implementation scope and impact. The negative impacts such as increased trade costs and decreased demand are relatively certain, which will suppress the overall non - ferrous metal prices in the medium and long term [3][146]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Alumina - In April, alumina prices bottomed out and then rebounded. The price dropped continuously from April 1st - 8th, hitting a low of 2,663 yuan/ton, and then rebounded on April 9th due to supply - side production cuts and potential risks at the mine end. However, the over - supply expectation limited the rebound height. As of April 25th, the main alumina contract 2509 closed at 2,846 yuan/ton, down 3.07% from March 31st [6][7]. 3.1.2 Shanghai Aluminum - In April, Trump's tariff policy affected aluminum prices. After the unexpected tariff policy was introduced, the non - ferrous market tumbled, and then rebounded after the delay of tariffs on some countries. Aluminum prices showed certain resilience, with the price briefly hitting a low of 19,000 yuan/ton on April 7th and then rising. As of April 25th, the main Shanghai Aluminum contract 2506 closed at 20,030 yuan/ton, down 2.2% from March 31st [9][11][13]. 3.2 Macro Hotspot Tracking 3.2.1 Interest Rate Cut Path Impacted by Tariff Policy - In the first quarter of 2025, the Fed maintained the federal funds target rate unchanged. After the release of inflation data in February, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts decreased. In March, the inflation data cooled unexpectedly, increasing the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. After the release of the CPI data in March, the market almost fully priced in a Fed interest rate cut in June, but Fed officials emphasized controlling inflation and were not eager to cut interest rates in the short term. Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates immediately, and the path of interest rate cuts will be greatly affected by the tariff policy [19][20][24]. 3.2.2 Trump's Tariff Policy - In April, Trump introduced a new round of more comprehensive and far - reaching tariff policies, which had a negative impact on the market. China countered by imposing a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US. Then Trump postponed the tariffs on non - retaliatory countries for 90 days and exempted some electronic products. The trade war between China and the US escalated, and the tariff policy will lead to a decline in global demand and economic growth, affecting the prices of non - ferrous metals. China's aluminum exports to the US will be affected, and the export demand is expected to decline [25][26][29]. 3.2.3 Domestic Macro Data - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; the comprehensive PMI output index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points. The consumer price index decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The industrial producer price index also decreased. The growth rate of M2 and M1 decreased. Social consumption, industrial added value, and GDP all showed growth [31][32][36]. 3.3 Aluminum Market Analysis 3.3.1 Alumina - Raw Material Supply: In March, China's aluminum ore imports increased significantly, with imports from Guinea reaching a record high. In April, there was a potential supply risk at a mine in Guinea, but it had little impact. The arrival volume of bauxite is expected to increase in May - June. Overall, the supply of bauxite is expected to continue to increase [41][42][44]. - Cost and Profit: In April, the alumina cost continued to decline, but the price fell faster, and the industry's average loss increased. The cost is mainly affected by bauxite prices, which are expected to decline but with limited space. The industry's profit recovery depends more on supply - side adjustments. If the cumulative production cuts increase in May, the industry's loss pressure may be alleviated [45][48][54]. - Supply: In April, production cuts, restarts, and new capacity releases coexisted. The production cut scale expanded, giving the futures price upward momentum, but the long - term over - supply expectation remained unchanged, suppressing the price rebound. The overall supply of alumina is expected to increase in the future, and it is necessary to pay attention to the capacity operation in high - cost areas and the release speed of new capacity [55][60][61]. - Demand: Domestic demand for alumina is relatively stable, while export demand is weakening. Overseas alumina production has increased, and the price has decreased, narrowing the price difference between domestic and foreign markets. It is expected that the future export data will decline, and the overall supply of alumina will exceed demand [62][66][69]. - Spot Market: In April, the bearish sentiment in the alumina spot market eased slightly, and the price rebounded in the middle and late April due to production cuts. The price in the north may rebound, while the price in the south is expected to be stable. The rebound space of the spot price is limited [72][75][78]. - Futures Inventory: Since April, the total alumina futures inventory has fluctuated between 200,000 - 300,000 tons, at a relatively high level in history [81]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - Cost and Profit: In April, the electrolytic aluminum smelting cost decreased due to the decline in alumina and electricity prices. The industry's average profit narrowed but remained at a high level. In May, the cost is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the industry profit is expected to remain above 3,000 yuan/ton [84][88]. - Supply: In March - April, the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply remained strong. The capacity utilization rate was high, and the output increased year - on - year. Overseas production also increased. In April, the import loss narrowed, and the import volume is expected to decline [92][94]. - Inventory: In April, the aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline due to the peak consumption season and the increase in the aluminum - water ratio. In May, the inventory decline rate may slow down, and the support for aluminum prices will weaken [100][103]. - Demand: In April, the peak demand season continued, and the aluminum price was resilient. However, from May, the domestic demand will enter a four - month off - season, and the export demand is weak. The downstream processing enterprise's start - up rate was above 60%, with differences among different sectors. Macro - policies are expected to support the long - term aluminum consumption [111][115]. - End - use Demand: - Real Estate: In March, the real estate development climate index increased, but the investment, construction, and sales data were still negative. The demand for aluminum in the real estate sector remained weak [116][117]. - Home Appliances: The "trade - in" policy promoted home appliance consumption and aluminum demand. However, the export demand is expected to decline due to the tariff policy. The industry's growth rate will slow down, and the competition will intensify [120][125][129]. - Automobiles: In March, automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. Trump's tariff policy on automobiles has an uncertain impact, but the overall demand may be negatively affected. The new energy vehicle export is not overly pessimistic, and the aluminum demand in the automobile sector is expected to continue to increase [130][132]. - Photovoltaic: In the first quarter, the photovoltaic industry had a "rush - installation" period, driving up the demand for aluminum. However, after the window period, the demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic sector is expected to decline. Grid investment is expected to increase, which will benefit the demand for aluminum cables [137][139][140]. - Export: In March, China's aluminum exports decreased year - on - year. Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates and tariff policies, the export volume is expected to continue to decline in April [141]. 3.4 Outlook - Alumina: Cost support and production cuts will give short - term upward momentum to the alumina price, but in the medium and long term, it will be under pressure due to over - supply. It is expected to continue box - type fluctuations, with a price range of 2,700 - 3,200 yuan/ton [83][144][145]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The US tariff policy is uncertain, but it will suppress non - ferrous metal prices in the medium and long term. The electrolytic aluminum industry profit is expected to remain high. The supply is strong, but the demand will weaken in the medium term. It is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will fluctuate strongly, with a price range of 19,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [146][147][148].