甲醇半年报：需求缩减，甲醇基差下行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the post - holiday coastal market, overall supply may increase steadily while demand decreases, and the market transaction center may decline overall [3][66] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In April, methanol futures fluctuated weakly. The main contract completed the shift, and the new main contract MA2509 fell to around 2,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of over 6%. The spot market showed a differentiated trend, with inland prices rising and port prices weakening. By the end of the month, the Inner Mongolia price was 2,262 yuan/ton, up more than 5% from the beginning of the month, and the Taicang market price was 2,430 yuan/ton, down more than 6% from the beginning of the month [1][5] - The port basis weakened, and the inland basis strengthened significantly. There was a situation of port goods flowing back to the inland in the spot market [7] - The methanol markets in Europe and the United States declined continuously. The US price was around 92 cents/gallon, and the European price was around 271 - 275 euros/ton. There was more wait - and - see sentiment [11] 3.2 Analysis of Methanol Supply and Demand 3.2.1 Supply Recovery with Low Inventory Pressure in Production Areas - The low point of the national methanol operating load has passed, and maintenance devices are gradually restarting. During the traditional spring maintenance period in the inland, the overall domestic operation declined, and the supply in some regions tightened. The methanol operating rate at the beginning of this year was at the highest level in the same period of previous years, then decreased during the spring maintenance, with the lowest average operating rate of about 72% in March. In April, the operating rate recovered to about 73%. Although the scale of spring maintenance this year was less than in previous years, the market supply decreased as expected, and the inventory in production areas remained low, supporting the inland prices [14] 3.2.2 Increasing Supply in Coastal Markets - In the first quarter, China's methanol imports were continuously low. In March, the import volume was only 473,000 tons, hitting a ten - year low. By late April, the coastal methanol inventory was about 690,000 tons, down about 350,000 tons from early March, and the available methanol in the coastal area was also low, which supported the previous port prices [2][27] - As Iranian devices restarted, the loading volume has basically recovered. From late April to May, the number of Iranian import vessels arriving at ports will increase, and the supply in the coastal market after the holiday may increase steadily. The import volume in May is expected to exceed 1 million tons, and the port supply may gradually become abundant [2][28] 3.2.3 Industry Chain Situation - Import Profit and Arbitrage Window: The international natural gas price first decreased and then increased, and is currently fluctuating around 3.5 dollars/MMBtu. The import cost of natural - gas - made methanol is around 1,700 yuan/ton. The import profit has increased significantly, and the import arbitrage window has opened, with more non - Iranian devices intending to go to China for arbitrage [38] - Coal Market and Methanol Cost: In April, the domestic thermal coal market continued to be weak. The production cost of coal - made methanol was around 1,800 yuan/ton, and the converted futures price continued to decline to 2,340 yuan/ton. The valuation has returned to the theoretical operating range, and the downward pressure has been relieved. Currently, the profit of coal - made methanol has continued to rise to around 500 yuan/ton, and manufacturers are more willing to start production, so the domestic supply is expected to increase [40] - Demand Side: The traditional downstream has provided stable demand. By late April, the weighted operating rate of traditional downstream was about 58%, slightly lower than at the beginning of the month but still about 5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at the highest level in the same period over the years. From the middle of the month, the demand decreased as the downstream methanol - to - olefins plants reduced their loads. The average operating load of methanol - to - olefins plants dropped to 74.65% by late April, and the average load of externally - purchased methanol MTO devices decreased significantly. The methanol - to - olefins sector is still in a large - scale loss state, and the market sentiment is bearish. However, the short - term flow of port goods back to the inland has alleviated the port pressure to some extent [2][44][45]