关税政策影响热卷延续弱势

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since April, hot-rolled coils have shown a weak trend with short-term spikes followed by oscillations and declines. The tariff policies of the Trump administration in the United States have exceeded expectations, putting pressure on market sentiment and causing further drops in hot-rolled coil prices [3][5][24]. - This year, the supply of hot-rolled coils remains at a relatively high level, and the demand for plates, especially from domestic sources, is strong. However, due to the impact of tariffs, the growth rate of overall plate demand may be weaker than last year, making it difficult for steel prices to rise and more likely to fall [3][23][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Since April, hot-rolled coils have short-term spikes followed by oscillations and declines. Earlier in the year, steel had low inventory due to pessimistic expectations and active de-stocking of building materials. With approaching important meetings, market sentiment improved, and raw material prices strengthened, driving up hot-rolled coil prices. After the implementation of foreign tariff policies, prices dropped further [3][5][24]. - As hot-rolled coil prices declined, spot profits weakened slightly while futures profits were maintained. With policy stimuli, far-month contracts of hot-rolled coils performed better [6]. Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - In April, the supply of hot-rolled coils remained at a relatively high level, with the weekly output reaching a maximum of 3.3 million tons at the beginning of the year, and the supply of plates such as cold-rolled coils and medium-thick plates was also high year-on-year. The output of plates recovered quickly around the Spring Festival, indicating an early and strong start of plate demand [3][10][24]. - The output of rebar decreased before the Spring Festival, resulting in low inventory. After the Spring Festival, as rebar production capacity recovered, the overall steel output exceeded that of the same period last year, testing the terminal demand [11]. Inventory - In April, the inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased, with both the inventory level around the Spring Festival and the inventory reduction rate during the peak season lower than last year. Despite strong supply, the significant inventory reduction indicates a notable increase in demand [12]. - The inventory of rebar decreased year-on-year, but the inventory reduction rate after the Spring Festival was slow, indicating weak demand. The trend of strong plates and weak building materials continued [16]. Demand - The production capacity of terminal plate demand in industries such as home appliances, automobiles, and ships has been continuously strengthening, driving up plate demand. In March 2025, the national air conditioner output increased by about 9.3% year-on-year, and automobile production increased by 12%. However, export orders from home appliance enterprises are starting to decline, indicating the impact of tariffs on terminal exports [3][17][25]. - In the first quarter, the export volume of steel continued to increase year-on-year, reaching a new high in March. The US tariff policy affects both direct steel exports from China and the exports of home appliances and automobiles, directly reducing steel demand. After the implementation of the tariff policy, China's exports may shift to regions such as Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, but it will take time to reach a new trade balance [20][23][25]. Summary and Outlook - The situation of hot-rolled coils in April is similar to the market review, with short-term spikes followed by oscillations and declines, affected by tariff policies. The supply remains high, and the demand for plates is strong domestically but weakening in exports due to tariffs, making it difficult for steel prices to rise [24][25].