Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Internationally, Brazil's new - year sugar production is下调. India's sugar production is expected to be less than 26 million tons, making exports difficult. Brazil's initial crushing progress has increased significantly year - on - year, and overall consumption lacks a boost [2][26]. - Domestically, the sales of domestic sugar are progressing rapidly, and inventory pressure is low. Droughts in major domestic producing areas have affected sugarcane growth. However, the previous opening of the domestic import window may lead to a significant increase in imports in May. Consumption is entering the off - season. Sugar prices mainly depend on later weather changes. If risks are magnified, sugar prices have upward momentum; if there is sufficient rainfall later, sugar prices may face pressure from the off - season and increased imports and may decline [2][26]. - The recommended operation is to conduct band trading on Zhengzhou sugar futures [3][27]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In April, Zhengzhou sugar prices first declined and then rebounded. Affected by the negative news of the US tariff increase and the decline of the external market, Zhengzhou sugar followed the downward trend, with the main contract reaching a minimum of 5,856 yuan/ton on April 16. Then it rebounded due to weather disasters in major producing areas [5]. - In April, international sugar prices continued to fluctuate downward. Macro - events and strong production at the beginning of Brazil's sugar - crushing season put pressure on the market, with the main contract reaching a minimum of 17.36 cents/pound on April 16 [5]. 2. International Market Analysis 2.1 Brazil: Strong Production Start and Significantly Reduced Inventory - Brazil's sugar inventory in the first quarter of the year decreased by about 70% compared with the historical average. By the end of March, the inventory dropped to 2.61 million tons, a ten - year low, prompting sugar mills to increase sugar production [7]. - The sugar - making ratio in southern Brazil at the beginning of the crushing season was 43%, much higher than 33.5% in the same period last year and market expectations. The attractiveness of sugar production is high, and it is expected that Brazil has added some production capacity. Reduced rainfall is beneficial for the start of the crushing season, and supply data is expected to maintain a large year - on - year increase, continuously pressuring the market [7]. 2.2 India: Production Nearing End and High Domestic Sugar Prices - As of April 15, 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, India had crushed 271 million tons of sugarcane and produced 25.425 million tons of sugar, with 37 sugar mills still in operation. In the same period of the previous season, 74 sugar mills were not yet finished, having crushed 307 million tons of sugarcane and produced 31.165 million tons of sugar. The average sugar - production rate was 9.37%, lower than 10.16% in the previous season [11]. - This season's sugar production is expected to be 25.9 million tons. With production below 26 million tons, exports may be restricted later. Supported by tightened domestic supply, domestic sugar prices in India remain above 19.5 cents/pound [11]. 3. Domestic Market Analysis 3.1 Domestic Production Nearing End and Inventory Declining - As of the end of March 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, 43 sugar mills in Yunnan and 1 in Guangxi were still in production, and all sugar mills in other provinces (regions) had stopped. The country produced 10.7479 million tons of sugar this season, a year - on - year increase of 1.1748 million tons or 12.27%. The cumulative sugar sales were 5.9958 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.261 million tons or 26.64%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 55.79%, 6.33 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The industrial inventory as of March was 4.7521 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,500 tons [14]. - In the short term, domestic supply pressure is very limited. Before the increase in imports, sugar mills are expected to maintain a price - holding attitude. Although there will be incremental supply later, it will also be the peak consumption season. Overall, the firm spot price this season will continue to support the futures market [14]. 3.2 Severe Drought in Guangxi and Attention to Later Weather - Since the beginning of 2025, Guangxi has experienced the most severe autumn - winter - spring continuous drought since 1961. As of April 21, 97.5% of the region's land was affected by meteorological drought, with 68.7% reaching the extreme drought level, affecting 52 counties (districts) in 11 cities. It has caused 405,000 people to be affected, 513,000 hectares of crops to be damaged, and direct economic losses of 210 million yuan [17]. - The drought has severely affected sugarcane production in Guangxi. During the critical period of spring - planted sugarcane emergence and ratoon sugarcane tillering from April to May, the continuous drought has led to a 30% - 50% decrease in the sugarcane emergence rate compared with normal years, and the survival rate of ratoon sugarcane in some areas is less than 50%. The drought has also weakened photosynthesis and reduced the sucrose accumulation rate, affecting the sugar - production rate. It is expected that Guangxi's sugarcane output in the 2024/25 season will decline significantly [18]. 3.3 Expected Import Surge in May and Tighter Syrup Control - In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. From January to March 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 150,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.05 million tons. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 season, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.61 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45 million tons. The import contraction was greater than market expectations [23]. - In March 2025, China imported 132,800 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons. From January to March, the cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder were 242,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 83,700 tons. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 season, the cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder were 881,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 140,200 tons [23]. - The import window has opened several times since January 21, March 6, and around April 15, 2025. It is highly likely that imports will significantly increase in May, with the total exceeding 1 million tons [24].
不确定性增加，郑糖关注广西天气
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-04-27 02:41