供弱需强，苹果盘面易涨难跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, the main contract of apple futures completed the roll - over and showed a strong and volatile pattern. The AP2510 contract broke through the February high and reached a new recent high. The low inventory of old - season apples and the sales peak season provided support for the market. The new - season apples are entering the flowering period, which is prone to weather speculation by funds. It is recommended to take a bullish approach in operation [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In April 2025, the main contract of apple futures completed the roll - over, showing a strong and volatile pattern. The AP2510 contract refreshed the recent high. The low inventory of old - season apples and the sales peak season, along with the new - season apples entering the flowering period, led to a strong market [5]. 3.2 Apple Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cold - Storage Inventory Lower than the Same Period in Previous Years - As of April 24, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was about 2.4376 million tons, 1.6239 million tons less than the same period last year. The inventory in Shandong was about 1.3212 million tons, and that in Shaanxi was about 0.6775 million tons. The quality of apples in the western region was better than that in the eastern region. The remaining inventory of farmers' goods in the northwest was small, and some farmers showed a reluctance to sell. The low inventory reduced the sales pressure [13]. 3.2.2 Good Shipping Performance in Production Areas - As of April 24, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 18.45%, 3.23 percentage points lower than last week and 12.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a destocking rate of 70.99%. The cold - storage capacity utilization ratio in Shandong was 26.80%, a decrease of 3.83 percentage points, and that in Shaanxi was 17.83%, a decrease of 3.18 percentage points. The 4 - 5 month period is the peak outbound period. With the temperature rising and the storage cost increasing, the willingness of farmers and merchants to sell may increase, and the destocking progress is expected to remain fast [21]. 3.2.3 Good Import Performance - The overall import scale of fresh apples in China is small. In 2010 - 2020, the import volume accounted for only about 1% of the total output. In March 2025, the import volume was 0.0095 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 535.68% and a year - on - year increase of 167.07%. The cumulative import volume from January to March 2025 was 0.00133 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.88%. The import has recovered [25]. 3.2.4 Good Export Performance in the First Quarter - China's fresh apples are mainly exported to Southeast Asian countries. In March 2025, the export volume was about 0.0961 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.82% and a year - on - year increase of 1.71%. The export growth rate in the second quarter of 2025 may decline but remain at a high level. The increase in export volume will drive cold - storage destocking [28]. 3.2.5 Seasonal Fruits Not in Large - Scale Supply, Benefiting Apple Demand Recovery - In April 2025, fruit prices were strong. The average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits was about 7.6 yuan/kg, slightly higher than the same period last year. The small supply and high prices of seasonal fruits were beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [33]. 3.2.6 Apple Consumption Seasonal Analysis - Months with a high probability of price increases are September, November, and December. Months with a high probability of price decreases are April, August, and October. The price trends are related to factors such as inventory, new - season apple supply, and seasonal fruit impact [37][38]. 3.2.7 New - Season Apples Gradually Entering the Flowering Period - In the Shandong production area, the apple flowering period is slightly ahead, but the pollination and fruit - setting in Yiyuan are affected by rainfall. In the Shaanxi production area, most are in the full - bloom stage, and some areas have completed fruit - setting. The Gansu production area is gradually entering the flowering period, and some orchards may have poor fruit - setting [41]. 3.3 Market Outlook - As of April 24, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory is low, and the sales pressure is reduced. The inventory ratio is decreasing, and the export volume is increasing. The 4 - 5 month period is the peak outbound period. With the temperature rising and the storage cost increasing, the destocking progress is expected to remain fast. The low inventory of old - season apples and the sales peak season provide support for the market. It is recommended to take a bullish approach in operation [43][44]