棉花月报：宏观不确定性大，郑棉消费承压-20250427

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of domestic cotton is stable with a projected slight increase in planting area, and the market focus is on consumption. The export situation is severe due to tariff hikes, and domestic consumption is in the off - season. Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is under pressure, and its performance is affected by macro - changes. If the trade situation improves, it may emerge from the weak trend. [1][27] - The global cotton market remains under pressure, with the USDA's April report increasing the global inventory. However, short - term consumption of US cotton is stimulated by Southeast Asian countries' rush to export, which supports the price of US cotton. The political uncertainty of the US president brings high market risks and uncertain impacts on the cotton market. [2][27] - The operation suggestion is to mainly conduct short - term trading in Zhengmian. [2][28] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In April, Zhengmian experienced a cliff - like decline and then maintained weak oscillations. After the US unexpectedly increased tariffs on April 7, Zhengmian dropped with a gap, and the panic spread. On April 9, the main contract of Zhengmian reached a minimum of 12,490 yuan/ton and then oscillated at a low level. [5] - The international cotton market declined and then rebounded in April. After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs, the global trade situation was tense, and US cotton reached a minimum of 62.05 cents/pound on April 4. Then, as the market digested the negative impact and the trade situation improved, the price of US cotton rebounded and basically recovered the decline. [5] 2. Domestic Market Analysis 2.1 Weak Operating Rates - Due to the tense Sino - US trade situation, the textile and weaving industries suffered a severe blow in April. As of April 18, the operating rate of textile enterprises was 54.8%, remaining unchanged since February 28. The operating rate of weaving enterprises was 52.4%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points from the previous week and at the lowest level in five years. [7] - As of April 18, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 18.7 days, up 0.3 days from the previous week and down 5.1 days year - on - year. The finished - product inventory of weaving enterprises was 31.4 days, down 0.3 days from the previous week and up 4.5 days year - on - year. The inventory accumulation of both was obvious, with the weaving enterprises' inventory at a high level compared with the same period in previous years. [10] 2.2 Escalation of Sino - US Trade Conflicts - On April 2, 2025, Trump announced a national emergency and a series of tariff policies, including a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on all trading partners effective on April 5, and "reciprocal tariffs" of 10 - 50% on trade - deficit countries. The policy of canceling the "small - value exemption" for Chinese exports under $800 will take effect on May 2. [12] - China announced multiple counter - measures on April 4, including imposing a 34% tariff on all US imports from April 10, suing the US at the WTO, and taking other relevant measures. [13] - The US continued to threaten to increase tariffs on China, and China synchronously raised tariffs on US imports. Later, the US tried to ease the international pressure, and both sides showed signs of potential negotiation. [14][15] - Compared with the 2018 trade war, the scope of this tariff measure is wider, hitting all trading partners. The US also imposed high tariffs on Southeast Asian countries, with comprehensive tax rates on some goods exceeding 60%, affecting their代工 economy. [16][17] - New models of trans - shipment trade are expected to emerge. Chinese enterprises can set up factories in Mexico through the USMCA to reduce tariffs, and African countries' cotton - related industrial parks enjoy zero - tariff treatment under the AGOA. [18] - The deterioration of the trade situation has a negative impact on the domestic and international cotton markets. China's textile and clothing exports to the US may see a sharp decline, and China's imports of US cotton are likely to stop. [19] 3. International Market Analysis 3.1 Weak Global Production and Consumption with a Slight Increase in Inventory - According to the USDA's April cotton supply - demand report, global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume are all declining, while the inventory is increasing. The global total output decreased by 69,000 bales, consumption decreased by 520,000 bales, and the monthly import volume declined. The global ending inventory in the 2024/25 season increased by more than 520,000 bales. [21][23] 3.2 Stronger US Cotton Exports with Southeast Asian Countries' Rush to Export - During the 90 - day suspension period of the "reciprocal tariff" given by the US government, Southeast Asian countries may make concessions in tariffs. Southeast Asian yarn mills and cotton trading enterprises are rushing to export, which stimulates short - term US cotton consumption. [25] - As of April 10, 2024/25, the total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.527 million tons, accounting for 107% of the annual predicted total export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.674 million tons, accounting for 66% of the total annual signed volume. [25]