策略周专题（2025年4月第4期）：基金一季度配置有何变化趋势？

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced an overall increase this week, with the small-cap index rising by 2.1%, while the Sci-Tech 50 index saw a decline of 0.4%. Industries such as automotive, beauty care, and basic chemicals performed relatively well, whereas food and beverage, as well as real estate, lagged behind [1][12][14]. Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the overall equity position of equity funds increased by 0.84 percentage points to 84.01%. The allocation to Hong Kong stocks reached a historical high of 13.22%, reflecting a 2.66 percentage point increase from the previous quarter. The equity positions of various fund types are at relatively high levels compared to the past decade [2][17][24]. - The allocation of equity funds has shifted towards TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), domestic consumption, and resource sectors. The DeepSeek technology breakthrough has led to a structural increase in TMT allocations, particularly in downstream media [2][25][28]. Group 3 - The concentration of top holdings in equity funds has slightly increased, indicating a reduction in market divergence among public funds. The top 10, 30, 50, and 100 holdings accounted for 20.6%, 34.5%, 42.5%, and 54.7% of total holdings, respectively [3][34]. - The top 10 holdings as of the end of Q1 2025 include Tencent Holdings, CATL, Kweichow Moutai, Alibaba-W, Midea Group, Luxshare Precision, BYD, Zijin Mining, SMIC, and Wuliangye. New entrants to the top 10 include Alibaba-W, BYD, and SMIC, while Cambrian, Hengrui Medicine, and North Huachuang dropped out [3][40]. Group 4 - The market is expected to enter a consolidation phase, with a focus on defensive and cyclical styles. Historical data shows that the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in April is only 40%, with a median monthly increase of -0.4%. This trend may be influenced by the concentration of earnings reports in April, leading to cautious investor behavior [4][43][50]. - The April Politburo meeting emphasized a bottom-line thinking approach, aiming for "four stabilizations" and focusing on high-quality development to address external uncertainties. The meeting outlined four policy priorities, including ensuring livelihoods and accelerating fiscal fund deployment [4][44].