信用利差周报2025年第15期：财政部启动超长期特别国债发行，交易商协会发布估值指引优化估值生态-20250427

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the "Bank - to - Bond Market Bond Valuation Business Self - Regulatory Guidelines (Trial)" is conducive to improving the bond market valuation ecosystem, promoting diversified development of the bond valuation market, and playing the functions of price discovery and rational resource allocation in the bond market [10][11][12]. - The issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds may cause short - term fluctuations in the bond market, but it has long - term allocation value. The second quarter may be an important window for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and attention should be paid to the policy tone of the Politburo meeting and the central bank's operation rhythm [4][13][14]. - The risk clearance of real estate bonds is coming to an end, and the market pattern is accelerating towards central and state - owned enterprises. The future real estate bond market may present a pattern of coexistence of "risk convergence" and "structural differentiation", and the tail risk still needs attention [4][16][17]. Summary by Directory Market Dynamics - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued the "Bank - to - Bond Market Bond Valuation Business Self - Regulatory Guidelines (Trial)", aiming to improve the scientificity and transparency of bond valuation, promote the transformation of market pricing from "price tracking" to "value anchoring", and lay a foundation for the participation of overseas investors and the optimization of credit risk pricing [3][10][11]. - On April 17, the Ministry of Finance announced the issuance arrangement of 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, covering 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year varieties. The central bank may cooperate through monetary policy to maintain market liquidity [4][13][14]. - The risk clearance of real estate bonds is approaching the end, with central and state - owned enterprises accounting for more than 85% of the issuance and stock of real estate bonds. The market shows a pattern of concentration towards central and state - owned enterprises, and the duration of real estate bonds has significantly shrunk [4][16][17]. Macroeconomic Data - In the first quarter, the GDP was 31.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The growth rates of the secondary and tertiary industries were 5.9% and 5.3% respectively. In March, the export was 3139.12 billion US dollars, with the year - on - year growth rate turning from negative to positive; the import was 2122.69 billion US dollars, with the year - on - year growth rate turning from positive to negative [5][19][20]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - injected 2338 billion yuan through open market operations. Due to the tax payment pressure near the middle of the month, the capital demand increased, and the capital price fluctuated [6][23]. Primary Market - Last week, the issuance of credit bonds continued to heat up, with a scale of 2681.76 billion yuan, an increase of 637.25 billion yuan compared with the previous period. The scale of cancelled issuance was 110.5 billion yuan, an increase of 87.7 billion yuan compared with the previous period. The issuance scale of each bond type and industry varied [7][26][28]. Secondary Market - Last week, the secondary - market trading volume of bonds decreased, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 4410.25 billion yuan to 17112.02 billion yuan. Bond yields fluctuated within a narrow range. Interest - rate bond yields showed different trends, and most credit bond yields increased [8][40][41].