动力煤：刚需发力有限，震荡偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pattern of loose supply and demand for thermal coal will continue, and prices may fluctuate at the bottom. Some medium and low - calorie coal mines with high cost - effectiveness in the production areas have good sales and relatively firm prices. However, as the off - season for power plants approaches, the demand expectation weakens, and the restocking demand of non - power industries has not been significantly released, restricting the upward momentum of prices. In the off - season, prices are expected to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of non - power industry demand and the progress of port inventory reduction [1][15] Summary by Relevant Contents Market Review - Futures Market: On the last trading day of last week, the thermal coal contract ZC2505 had no trading. On the 28th, it opened at 931.6000 yuan/ton, with the highest at 931.6000 yuan/ton, the lowest at 840.0000 yuan/ton, and closed at 840.0000 yuan/ton. The settlement price decreased by 51.4 yuan/ton, with 18.0000 lots traded and 0.0000 lots held [3] - Domestic Production Area Quotes: In Erdos, the pit - mouth tax - included prices are 300 yuan/ton for 4000 - calorie thermal coal in Dalate Banner, 315 yuan/ton for 4500 - calorie in Dalate Banner, 470 yuan/ton for 5500 - calorie in Ejin Horo Banner, and 556 yuan/ton for 6000 - calorie in Jungar Banner [3] - Port Inventory: As of April 26, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 6.85 million tons, at Caofeidian Port was 5.65 million tons, at Jingtang Port was 7.797 million tons, and at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 0.458 million tons [5] - Southern Port Foreign - Trade Thermal Coal Quotes: In Guangzhou Port, the tax - included ex - warehouse prices are 744 yuan/ton for 5500 - calorie Australian coal, 659 yuan/ton for 5000 - calorie Australian coal, 495 yuan/ton for 3800 - calorie Indonesian coal, 541 yuan/ton for 4200 - calorie Indonesian coal, and 653 yuan/ton for 4800 - calorie Indonesian coal. In Fangchenggang, the tax - included ex - warehouse prices are 500 yuan/ton for 3800 - calorie Indonesian coal and 636 yuan/ton for 4700 - calorie Indonesian coal [5] - International Coal Prices and Freight Rates: As of April 25, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) was 749.41, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) was 1,392.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) was 1,889.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) was 977.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [9][11] Viewpoints and Operation Suggestions - Viewpoint: The loose supply - demand pattern of thermal coal will continue, with prices likely to fluctuate at the bottom. In the off - season, prices are expected to operate weakly, and attention should be paid to non - power industry demand recovery and port inventory reduction [15] - Operation Suggestion: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [15]