Soochow Securities·2025-04-27 06:34Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints The report presents a weekly overview of the large refining and chemical industry, highlighting that oil prices are oscillating at high levels, and filament prices continue to face pressure. It details the price, profit, inventory, and operating rate data of various segments such as refining, polyester, and chemicals, as well as the performance of related listed companies [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - Price and Spread of Key Refining Projects: The domestic key large refining project spread this week is 2,520 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 43 yuan/ton (-2%); the foreign key large refining project spread is 953 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 19 yuan/ton (+2%) [2]. - Polyester Sector: The weekly average prices of POY/FDY/DTY are 6,279/6,493/7,621 yuan/ton respectively, with week-on-week decreases of 114/150/118 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits are -43/-166/-14 yuan/ton, down 104/128/107 yuan/ton week-on-week. The inventory levels are 28.2/30.4/34.5 days, with week-on-week changes of -1.2/-1.5/+0.1 days. The filament operating rate is 93.3%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.6 pct. Downstream, the loom operating rate is 55.2%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.8 pct. The raw material inventory of weaving enterprises is 11.3 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.6 days, and the finished product inventory is 24.7 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.5 days [2]. - Refining Sector: Domestic refined oil prices (gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) declined this week, while in the US, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices rose [2]. - Chemical Sector: The average PX price this week is 744.9 US dollars/ton, a week-on-week increase of 9.0 US dollars/ton, and the spread to crude oil is 259.1 US dollars/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2.3 US dollars/ton. The PX operating rate is 77.3%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.9 pct [2]. - Related Listed Companies: Private large refining and chemical & polyester filament companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Orient Shenghong, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin凤鸣 [2]. - Stock Price Performance of 6 Private Refining Companies: The petroleum and petrochemical index on April 25, 2025, showed a 1.3% increase in the past week, a -3.5% decrease in the past month, a -2.8% decrease in the past three months, a -12.1% decrease in the past year, and a -7.8% decrease since the beginning of 2025. Among the companies, Orient Shenghong had a 6.9% increase in the past week, while Rongsheng Petrochemical had a -4.2% decrease in the past month, and Hengli Petrochemical had a 4.9% increase in the past three months [8]. - Earnings Forecast of 6 Private Refining Companies: Taking Hengli Petrochemical as an example, with a stock price of 15.5 yuan and a total market value of 109 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023A was 6.905 billion yuan, and it is expected to reach 9.303 billion yuan in 2026E. The PE in 2025E is 13.6, and the PB is 1.6 [8]. - Oil Prices and Refining Spreads: The average price of Brent crude oil this week is 66.5 US dollars/barrel, a week-on-week increase of 0.9 US dollars/barrel (+1.4%), and a year-on-year decrease of 24.1%. The average price of WTI crude oil is 63.0 US dollars/barrel, a week-on-week increase of 0.7 US dollars/barrel (+1.1%), and a year-on-year decrease of 23.8% [8]. 2. Big Refining Weekly Report 2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends - Analyzes the changes in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, petroleum and petrochemical, and oil prices, as well as the market performance of six private large refining companies and the weekly spreads of domestic and foreign large refining projects [14][16][21]. 2.2 Polyester Sector - Covers multiple aspects such as the prices and spreads of crude oil, PX, PTA, and MEG, the operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG, the prices and profits of POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester staple fiber, the inventory levels of polyester enterprises, and the operating rates of filament and downstream looms [23][31][37]. 2.3 Refining Sector - Compares the prices and spreads of refined oil products (gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) in different regions including China, the US, Europe, and Singapore, with both yuan/ton and US dollars/barrel units [80][90][95]. 2.4 Chemical Sector - Analyzes the prices and spreads of various chemical products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, styrene, acrylonitrile, PC, and MMA relative to crude oil [135][136][143].