累库空间缩窄，等待节后印证

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week (4.21 - 4.27), the spot price of live pigs fluctuated and adjusted, with the futures price showing weak performance. The average slaughter weight increased slightly, and the basis widened. Looking ahead to next week (4.28 - 4.30), the spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the pressure on the spot price is expected to increase in May. The trading logic of the futures market is gradually returning to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [1][2][3] Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (4.21 - 4.27) Spot Market - The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 45.1 yuan/kg (45.2 yuan/kg last week), the price of live pigs in Henan was 14.95 yuan/kg (15.07 yuan/kg last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,635 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). The group's slaughter progress was basically in line with expectations, and retail farmers still had a sentiment of reluctant to sell. The demand for secondary fattening procurement remained at a relatively high level. The average national slaughter weight was 126.32KG (126KG last week), with a month - on - month increase of 0.25% [1] Futures Market - The highest price of the LH2509 contract of live pig futures this week was 14,580 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,530 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,150 yuan/ton (13,875 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 800 yuan/ton (605 yuan/ton last week) [2] Next Week's Market Outlook (4.28 - 4.30) Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. During the off - season, the group's adjustment of slaughter has a significant impact on prices. In April, secondary fattening continued to purchase and hold pigs, and the weight continued to increase. The spot price remained in a high - level oscillation. The progress of secondary fattening replenishment was nearly half, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs in the north and south was inverted. In terms of supply, after the replenishment from February to April, the vacancy rate of pens for retail farmers and secondary fattening has decreased, and the inventory accumulation progress has accelerated. The group's slaughter progress is in line with the plan, and the increase in slaughter volume in the second quarter is limited, with a more obvious increase in the third quarter. In terms of demand, it is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand will drop significantly compared with the peak before the Spring Festival. However, the demand for frozen - to - fresh conversion has increased, and the total slaughter volume has increased year - on - year, maintaining an increasing trend in April. In terms of driving factors, the frozen product port is limited by the expected price peak and capital pressure, and hopes to start warehousing at a price of 13.5 yuan/kg or lower. The import tariff has a limited impact on the total volume, and the cost transmission range exists. Overall, there is still speculative demand support in mid - to - late April, and the inventory accumulation situation has not reached the critical point, but the price difference between the north and south is inverted, and the willingness to replenish at high prices has decreased. It is expected that the spot pressure will increase in May [2] Futures Market - The price of the LH2505 contract closed at 14,150 yuan/ton on April 25. The trend of the September contract this week confirmed the cooling of tariff and macro - sentiment, and the trading logic is gradually returning to the industrial logic. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment increased significantly in April, and the overall progress has exceeded half. Although the spot price is running strongly, the increase is less than that in the secondary fattening driving stage in previous years, which confirms that the total inventory is not low. As the temperature rises, the price difference between fat and lean pigs in the north and south is inverted. It is expected that the pressure on the spot price will increase in May, and attention should be paid to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] Basis and Spread - This week, the basis was 800 yuan/ton, and the spread between LH2507 and LH2509 was - 610 yuan/ton [9] Supply - The data shows the national piglet inventory and the inventory of breeding sows, but specific numerical information is not provided in the text. The weekly average weight was 126.32KG (126KG last week). In February, the pork production was 3.655 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.5%; in March, the pork import was 91,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62% [13] Price - The report presents various price charts, including the price trends of live pigs in Henan and Shandong, the average national wholesale price of pork, the average price trend of sows, the price trend of piglets, the ratio of pig to grain, and the cross - regional price difference trends, but specific numerical information is not provided in the text [13][14] Demand - The report shows charts of the weekly fresh sales rate of white - striped pork and the daily slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises, but specific numerical information is not provided in the text [15]