宏观周报（第2期）：人民币短期升值，趋势能否延续？-20250427

Exchange Rate Trends - The CNY has recently appreciated against the USD, with the USD index closing at 99.84 on April 23, up 0.61% from the previous week, while the CNY closed at 7.293, up 0.12%[12] - Since Q2 2022, the USD has shown stronger performance compared to other currencies due to expansionary fiscal and industrial policies in the US, exerting depreciation pressure on the CNY[3] US Policy Impact - Trump's recent softening stance on tariffs has alleviated some market concerns, contributing to a slight recovery in the USD index[4] - The USD index has experienced two significant depreciations since March, contrary to actual interest rate trends, indicating heightened global economic risks due to US tariff policies[4] Future Outlook - The CNY's recent recovery may indicate a potential stabilization against the USD, but uncertainties remain due to ongoing US tariff strategies and potential fiscal expansions[5] - The Chinese government has prepared balanced policies to stabilize foreign trade, domestic demand, and exchange rates amid external shocks[5] Monetary Policy Considerations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain the CNY at a reasonable equilibrium level, with a focus on avoiding excessive depreciation pressures[25] - The MLF net injection in April is projected to reach 500 billion, the highest monthly figure since 2024, indicating a shift in liquidity management strategies[25] Risks - There is a risk that the monetary policy easing may not meet expectations, which could impact the stability of the CNY[6]