择时雷达六面图：本周打分无显著变化

• The timing radar six-dimensional model is constructed based on multiple dimensions including liquidity, economic fundamentals, valuation, capital flow, technical signals, and crowding indicators. It aggregates 21 indicators into four categories: "valuation cost-effectiveness," "macro fundamentals," "capital & trend," and "crowding & reversal," generating a comprehensive timing score ranging from [-1,1][1][6][8] - Liquidity dimension includes factors such as monetary direction, monetary intensity, credit direction, and credit intensity. For example, the monetary direction factor is calculated based on the average change in central bank policy rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days. If the factor is greater than 0, it indicates monetary easing; otherwise, it signals tightening[12][15][17] - Economic dimension includes growth direction and intensity factors, as well as inflation direction and intensity factors. For instance, the growth direction factor is derived from PMI data, calculating the 12-month average and year-over-year changes. If the factor shows an upward trend compared to three months ago, it signals a positive outlook[23][30][31] - Valuation dimension includes indicators such as Shiller ERP, PB, and AIAE. Shiller ERP is calculated as 1/Shiller PE minus the 10-year government bond yield, with a z-score applied over the past three years. PB and AIAE indicators follow similar z-score normalization methods[36][38][41] - Capital flow dimension is divided into domestic and foreign capital indicators. Domestic indicators include margin trading increment and trading volume trends, while foreign indicators include China's sovereign CDS spread and overseas risk aversion index. For example, the CDS spread factor signals foreign capital inflow when the 20-day difference is less than 0[44][51][54] - Technical dimension captures trends and reversal signals, such as price trends and new highs/new lows. The price trend factor uses moving average distances (ma120/ma240-1) to measure market trends and strength. The new highs/new lows factor evaluates the difference between the number of new highs and new lows among index constituents over the past year[56][59] - Crowding dimension includes derivative signals such as implied premium/discount, VIX, and SKEW, as well as convertible bond pricing deviation. For instance, the implied premium/discount factor is derived from the 50ETF's recent 5-day returns and percentile rankings, signaling market crowding levels[62][68][71] - Current timing radar scores for each dimension are as follows: liquidity (-0.50), economic fundamentals (0.50), valuation (0.32), capital flow (-0.75), technical signals (0.00), and crowding (0.76). The overall timing score is 0.08, indicating a neutral-to-positive market outlook[7][8][10]