Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Next week (April 28 - 30), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures will show a weak and volatile trend, and investors should avoid risks during the May Day holiday. Attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations and spring - planting weather for US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal futures market has recently been affected by the sharp rise and fall of the spot market, and the current concerns in the spot market have been initially alleviated. The soybean meal futures price may decline and may pre - trade the pressure of arrivals in May - June. If the soybean spot crushing capacity increases rapidly after May Day, the spot price may decline rapidly; otherwise, it may decline slowly. Domestic soybeans have recently mainly followed the price fluctuations of soybean meal. When the soybean meal price rises, the enthusiasm for purchasing oil soybeans increases, driving up the price of food soybeans. Overall, there are still uncertainties in the external and domestic spot markets, so it is necessary to avoid holiday risks [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends of US Soybeans and Domestic Futures Last Week (April 21 - 25) - US Soybeans: The prices of US soybean futures showed mixed trends with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The decline was due to President Trump's criticism of the Fed Chairman for not cutting interest rates in a timely manner and China's denial of Sino - US tariff negotiations. The increase was due to hopes of US trade negotiations, the US saying that Sino - US negotiations were ongoing, and Trump saying that he had no plan to fire the Fed Chairman. There were no large - scale sales orders for US soybeans this week. From the perspective of the weekly K - line, in the week of April 25, the main 07 contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 1.19%, and the main 07 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decrease of 1.62% [1]. - Domestic Futures: The prices of domestic soybean meal and soybean futures first rose and then fell. For soybean meal, the price fluctuations on the futures market mainly came from the indirect influence of the spot market and the 05 contract. At the beginning of the week, the spot price rose significantly, and the northern region drove up the price in the southern region due to spot shortages. On Thursday afternoon and Friday, the spot price dropped significantly, and the tension in the spot market was initially alleviated. For soybeans, the price mainly followed the large - scale fluctuations of the soybean meal spot price. When the soybean meal price rose, the enthusiasm for purchasing oil soybeans increased, driving up the price of food soybeans. From the perspective of the weekly K - line, in the week of April 25, the main m2509 contract of soybean meal had a weekly increase of 0.33%, and the main a2507 contract of soybeans had a weekly increase of 2.94% [2]. 3.2 International Soybean Market Fundamentals Last Week (April 21 - 25) - US Soybean Sales and Shipment: The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week and were lower than expected, which had a negative impact. In the week of April 17, for shipments, the export shipments of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season were about 500,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 31%. The cumulative export shipments of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season were about 4.276 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipments of US soybeans to China were about 70,000 tons, and the cumulative shipments to China were about 2.214 million tons (about 2.351 million tons in the same period last year). In terms of sales, the weekly net sales of US soybeans in the current season (2024/25) were about 280,000 tons (about 550,000 tons in the previous week), and the weekly net sales in the next market season (2025/26) were about - 12,000 tons (about 180,000 tons in the previous week), with a combined total of about 280,000 tons (about 730,000 tons in the previous week), lower than the expected 300,000 - 700,000 tons. The weekly net sales of US soybeans to China in the current crop season (2024/25) were about 180,000 tons (about 700,000 tons in the previous week), and the weekly net sales to China in the next crop season (2025/26) were 0 (0 in the previous week) [2]. - US Soybean Planting Progress: As of the week of April 21, the US soybean planting progress was 8%, the same as last year and higher than the five - year average of 5%, which had a neutral impact [2]. - Brazilian Soybean Premium, Import Cost, and Crushing Profit: As of the week of April 25, the average CNF premium and import cost of Brazilian soybeans for June - July decreased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased slightly week - on - week [2]. - Weather Forecast in US Soybean - Producing Areas: According to the weather forecast on April 26, in the next two weeks (April 27 - May 11), the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas was basically normal, and the temperature was relatively high, which had a neutral impact [2]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market Conditions Last Week (April 21 - 25) - Trading Volume: The trading volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of April 25, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 200,000 tons, compared with about 260,000 tons in the previous week [3]. - Pick - up Volume: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of April 25, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 115,000 tons, compared with about 117,000 tons in the previous week [3]. - Basis: The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of April 25, the weekly average basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 649 yuan/ton, compared with about 231 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 82 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of April 18, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 110,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 58% and a year - on - year decrease of about 73% [4]. - Crushing Volume: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to increase slightly next week. According to the forecast of Steel Union (125 oil mills), as of the week of April 25, the weekly domestic soybean crushing volume was about 1.41 million tons (1.32 million tons in the previous week and 1.92 million tons in the same period last year), and the operating rate was about 40% (37% in the previous week and 55% in the same period last year). Next week (April 26 - May 2), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 1.47 million tons (1.72 million tons in the same period last year), and the operating rate is 41% (49% in the same period last year) [4]. - Imported Soybean Auction: On April 28, there will be another auction of imported soybeans. On April 23, the planned auction of imported soybeans was about 624,000 tons, and the actual transaction was about 107,000 tons, with a transaction rate of 17.2% and an average price of 3,780 yuan/ton. According to the announcement of the National Grain Trading Center on April 24, the planned auction of imported soybeans on April 28 is 456,000 tons, which has a negative impact and will relieve the tight spot market [4]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean Spot Market Conditions Last Week (April 21 - 25) - Price Differentiation: The prices of soybeans in the Northeast production area and the Inner - Pass area increased, while the prices in the sales areas were stable. In the Northeast, the purchase price of clean soybeans in some areas was in the range of 4,120 - 4,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In the Inner - Pass area, the purchase price range of clean soybeans was 5,060 - 5,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,480 - 4,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [5]. - Impact of Soybean Meal Price on Soybean Purchase in the Northeast: With the significant increase in the soybean meal price, the production enthusiasm of processing enterprises in the region has increased, and they are actively purchasing raw soybeans. The prices of oil soybeans and low - protein soybeans have risen, driving up the price of food soybeans. The sowing time of the new crop is postponed compared with last year due to more precipitation and lower temperatures in the production area, and soybean sowing is expected to start after May Day [5]. - Soybean Auction in Inner Mongolia: The soybean auctions in Inner Mongolia were successful. On April 23, the first auction planned to sell 142,500 tons, and the actual transaction was 133,000 tons, with an average transaction price of 3,884 yuan/ton. The purchased lots were mostly obtained by processing enterprises and large - scale groups. After adding the cost of discount, miscellaneous fees, and warehousing fees, the cost of this batch of soybeans was above 4,050 yuan/ton, which strongly supported the price of soybeans produced in 2024. On April 27, the second auction planned to sell about 87,000 tons, and the actual transaction was 77,500 tons, with an average transaction price of 3,881.5 yuan/ton. In addition, the market expects that policy - based reserve soybeans will be put into the market in May, which needs continuous attention [5]. - Stable Demand in Sales Areas: Although the prices of soybeans in the production areas have risen, the selling prices in many markets are stable. Most dealers still have unsold inventory from the previous period, and the new demand for soybeans from terminal soybean product manufacturers is limited. Various soybean product manufacturers are cautious in purchasing raw soybeans, the transaction of Northeast soybeans is slightly slow, and it is difficult for dealers to increase prices [5].
豆粕：偏弱震荡，规避五一假期风险，豆一，回调震荡，规避假期风险
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-04-27 07:22