市场情绪反复，矿价震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [7] 2. Core Views - Market Analysis: This week, the iron ore futures market oscillated. By Friday's close, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 699 yuan/ton, a 1.27% decline from last week. The spot market fluctuated with the futures. The 62% Platts Index dropped to $98.95/ton, and the spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 761 yuan/ton [4] - Supply: The latest Mysteel data shows that the global iron ore shipment volume this period was 2.9255 million tons, a 17,800 - ton increase from the previous period. Australia's shipment volume increased significantly, while Brazil's decreased. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.3253 million tons, a 200,200 - ton decrease [4] - Demand: Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills found that the blast furnace operating rate was 84.33%, a 0.77% increase from the previous period and a 4.60% increase year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a 1.45% increase from the previous period and a 6.07% increase year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a 2.6% increase from the previous period and a 6.93% increase year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 244,350 tons, a 4,230 - ton increase from the previous period and a 15,630 - ton increase year - on - year [4] - Inventory: Mysteel statistics show that the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports nationwide was 14.261 million tons, a 205,000 - ton increase from the previous period, indicating a trend of inventory accumulation. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 327,920 tons, an 18,410 - ton increase [5] - Overall Situation: Macroeconomically, the US's repeated statements on tariffs on China this week have disrupted market trading sentiment, amplifying iron ore price fluctuations. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment volume has slightly rebounded, with recent shipments fluctuating within a narrow range, and domestic ore production decreasing month - on - month, alleviating the supply pressure. In terms of demand, the output of the five major steel products has increased, continuing the de - stocking trend. Steel mill profitability has rebounded, and hot metal output has reached a new high for the year, with relatively strong iron ore demand. In terms of inventory, the iron ore port inventory has increased. Overall, the room for hot metal production increase is limited, and there are no prominent short - term fundamental contradictions in the iron ore market. The expected impact of tariffs on steel exports remains, and there are certain changes in the domestic crude steel supply side. Continuously monitor the impact of supply - side changes on the industrial chain, as well as tariff changes and downstream inventory replenishment before the holiday [3][5] 3. Strategy Summary - Macroeconomically, the US's repeated statements on tariffs on China this week have disrupted market trading sentiment, amplifying iron ore price fluctuations. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment volume has slightly rebounded, with recent shipments fluctuating within a narrow range, and domestic ore production decreasing month - on - month, alleviating the supply pressure. In terms of demand, the output of the five major steel products has increased, continuing the de - stocking trend. Steel mill profitability has rebounded, and hot metal output has reached a new high for the year, with relatively strong iron ore demand. In terms of inventory, the iron ore port inventory has increased. Overall, the room for hot metal production increase is limited, and there are no prominent short - term fundamental contradictions in the iron ore market. The expected impact of tariffs on steel exports remains, and there are certain changes in the domestic crude steel supply side. Continuously monitor the impact of supply - side changes on the industrial chain, as well as tariff changes and downstream inventory replenishment before the holiday [3][5]