产能宽松背景下，合金持续走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Silicon manganese: Oscillating [2][5] - Silicon iron: Oscillating [2][5] Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: This week, market sentiment was pessimistic, with silicon manganese futures prices showing an oscillating downward trend. As of Friday, the main silicon manganese contract closed at 5,796 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.66%. Spot prices remained stable, with downstream procurement mainly for rigid demand and a relatively quiet market. Supply - the开工 rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 41.59%, a decrease of 2.63% from last week, and the daily output was 26,580 tons, a decrease of 365 tons. Last week's national silicon manganese output was 186,100 tons, a 1.35% decrease from the previous week. Demand - the weekly demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products was 126,700 tons, a 0.34% increase from last week. Affected by industry profits, silicon manganese output continued to decline, while iron - water output increased month - on - month, indicating resilient demand. With sufficient production capacity, output can quickly increase once profits improve. Low manganese ore port inventories support alloy costs, so attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore [3]. - Silicon Iron: This week, silicon iron futures prices oscillated. As of Friday, the main silicon iron contract closed at 5,640 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.49%. Spot prices were weakly stable, with general overall transactions. As of Friday, the ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,500 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 6,050 - 6,100 yuan/ton. Supply - the silicon iron enterprise's开工 rate was 30.91%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.48%, and the output was 98,900 tons, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. Demand - the weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel products was 20,600 tons, a 0.08% increase from last week. Overall, despite improving demand, silicon iron output declined from its high due to losses, while manufacturer inventories increased month - on - month and downstream enterprise inventories remained low. With relatively loose production capacity, prices will be suppressed by weak demand, and attention should be paid to the impact of industrial policies on the black sector [4]. Strategy - Silicon manganese: Oscillating [5] - Silicon iron: Oscillating [5] Cross - Variety and Cross - Period - Cross - variety: None [6] - Cross - period: None [6]