债券市场专题研究：关注内需刺激受益转债

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sectors related to domestic demand stimulus may benefit in the current and future period. It is recommended to increase the allocation of convertible bonds related to domestic demand stimulus, immune to external demand, and technological growth [1]. - In the short - term, the convertible bond market may show a defensive feature. It is suggested that investors focus on high - grade, fundamentally sound convertible bonds. Convertible bonds related to consumer electronics, home appliances, and home furnishings that benefit from consumption subsidies can also be appropriately concerned. For new - quality productivity - related convertible bonds, high - priced targets can be appropriately taken profits, and those that have been fully adjusted in the short - term can be bought at low prices [3][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 1 转债市场观察 - In the past week (April 21 - April 25), most convertible bond indices rose, with the optional consumer industry index of convertible bonds, AA - and below rated convertible bonds, high - price convertible bond index, and small - cap convertible bond index leading the gains. The bond - like and balanced valuations generally increased, while the equity - like valuation compressed. The median price of the convertible bond market rose to 119.44 yuan, at the 75.06% level since 2017. The marginal elasticity of the convertible bond market increased, and market sentiment rebounded [2][11]. - In the next month, the market may focus more on fundamentals and show a defensive feature. The reasons include the market style shifting to fundamentals based on the 2024 financial reports and the new regulations, the possibility of convertible bond rating downgrades after the annual report disclosure, and the impact of overseas tariff risks on domestic risk appetite and fundamentals. The short - term risk of a sharp decline in the equity market is limited, and the upward repair trend may continue [3][12]. - Short - term investment suggestions: focus on high - grade, fundamentally sound convertible bonds; pay attention to convertible bonds related to consumer electronics, home appliances, and home furnishings that benefit from consumption subsidies; take profits for high - priced new - quality productivity - related convertible bonds and buy low for those fully adjusted [3][12][13]. - Recommended individual bonds: 4 - month low - volatility portfolio includes 10 convertible bonds such as Wenshan Convertible Bond; 4 - month stable portfolio includes 10 convertible bonds such as Yong 02 Convertible Bond; 4 - month high - volatility portfolio includes 10 convertible bonds such as Furong Convertible Bond [4][13]. 3.2 2 转债市场跟踪 3.2.1 2.1 转债行情方面 - The report provides the performance of various convertible bond indices in different time periods, including the past week, two weeks, 3 - month, one - month, two - month, half - year, and one - year periods. For example, the Wande Convertible Bond Energy Index increased by 0.59 in the past week [14]. 3.2.2 2.2 转债个券方面 - The report presents the top five and bottom five convertible bonds in terms of price increase and decrease in the past week, but specific bond names are not provided in the text [17]. 3.2.3 2.3 转债估值方面 - The report shows the valuation trends of bond - like, balanced, and equity - like convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trends of convertible bonds with par values in different ranges [25][27][30]. 3.2.4 2.4 转债价格方面 - The report shows the proportion trends of high - price and low - price convertible bonds, the proportion trend of bonds breaking below the bond floor, and the median price trend of the convertible bond market [32][39].