MLF放量影响中性，降息预期反应钝化

Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank conducted a net liquidity injection of 674 billion CNY this week, with a significant 600 billion CNY MLF operation on Friday, marking a net MLF injection of 500 billion CNY for April, the highest since 2024[2][6]. - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased by 0.01 trillion CNY to 6.34 trillion CNY, indicating a recovery in market activity[14]. Interest Rate Trends - The DR007 rate fell to 1.64%, the lowest since mid-January, reflecting stable liquidity conditions despite the central bank's shift to net absorption in the latter half of the week[6][21]. - The expectation for interest rate cuts has diminished, with the market showing a muted response to the political bureau's reiteration of "timely cuts" in monetary policy[21][22]. Government Debt Issuance - In April, the total issuance of government bonds reached 2.16 trillion CNY, with a net financing scale of 793.8 billion CNY, a decrease of approximately 680 billion CNY compared to March[29]. - The upcoming week will see a net repayment of government debt increasing from -130.1 billion CNY to 121.1 billion CNY, indicating a shift in cash flow dynamics[23][25]. Institutional Behavior - The net financing from banks returned above 3 trillion CNY, reflecting the central bank's commitment to maintaining stable liquidity, although there is no intention to significantly lower funding costs in the short term[21][22]. - The cross-month progress of various institutions reached 37.7%, the highest level in five years, influenced by the unique trading calendar of April[18].