NMHD(SH:600863) HTSC·2025-04-27 08:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.01 RMB [7][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 22.29 billion RMB in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.03% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.33 billion RMB, an increase of 15.98% year-on-year, although below the expected 2.51 billion RMB due to unexpected carbon emission expenses [1]. - The company achieved a dividend per share (DPS) of 0.22 RMB, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.45%, with total dividends accounting for 61.75% of net profit attributable to shareholders, exceeding the commitment of at least 70% of distributable profits [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 9.33% year-on-year to 5.05 billion RMB and a net profit decrease of 16.25% year-on-year to 744 million RMB, primarily due to lower coal quality and external coal prices [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 2024 was 22.29 billion RMB, with a projected decline of 3.73% for 2025, followed by a slight recovery in 2026 and 2027 [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.33 billion RMB in 2025, with a gradual increase to 2.74 billion RMB by 2027 [6]. - The report indicates a projected EPS of 0.36 RMB for 2025, increasing to 0.42 RMB by 2027 [6]. Electricity Pricing and Coal Segment - The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 is expected to decrease by 2.17% to 336.46 RMB/MWh, with a recovery in Q1 2025 showing a 3.57% increase to 363.11 RMB/MWh [2]. - The coal segment saw an increase in external sales volume by 16.89% to 7.28 million tons in 2024, with external coal prices slightly up by 0.18% to 402.21 RMB/ton [3]. - In Q1 2025, external coal sales volume remained stable, but prices dropped by 14.03% to 358.7 RMB/ton due to declining coal quality [3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of 5.01 RMB is based on a 14.0x PE ratio for 2024, reflecting a higher ROE and dividend level compared to comparable companies [4]. - The report adjusts the 2025-2026 net profit forecasts down by 19% and 21% respectively, due to various operational challenges [4]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 26.37 billion RMB, with a closing price of 4.04 RMB as of April 25, 2025 [9].