美国经济滞胀压力上升，美元维持震荡

Report Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The US economy faces increasing stagflation pressure, and the US dollar is expected to remain volatile. The market is significantly affected by factors such as tariff policies, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to hold safe - haven assets to hedge against uncertainties [33][34] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite slightly increased. Most stock markets rose, and most bond yields declined. The US Treasury yield dropped to 4.23%. The US dollar index rose 0.24% to 99.47, non - US currencies showed mixed performance. Gold prices fell 0.2% to $3319 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 24.8, the spot commodity index rose, and Brent crude oil fell 0.9% to $67.5 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose. The S&P 500 rose 4.59%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.56%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.74%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 2.81%. Tariff issues continued to disrupt the market, and the Fed's stance became more dovish. US stock earnings season started well, providing some support. However, economic prospects were under pressure, and overseas stock market expectations were weak. The domestic stock market aimed for stability, but market risk appetite was hard to continuously increase [9][10] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined. The 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.23%. Fed officials' dovish attitude and the suspension of tariffs reduced the pressure on US Treasuries, but the downward space was limited. The Chinese 10 - year Treasury yield slightly rose to 1.66%, and the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowing. The domestic bond market was affected by multiple factors and showed an oscillating trend [16][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.24% to 99.47, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. Offshore RMB rose 0.24%, the euro fell 0.25%, the pound rose 0.13%, the yen fell 1.05%, the Swiss franc fell 1.42%, the real rose over 3%, and some other currencies also had different performances [28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold fell 0.2% to $3319 per ounce. After a significant increase during the week, it fell due to factors such as potential Sino - US trade negotiations. There was still room for short - term correction, but the long - term upward logic remained. Brent crude oil fell 0.9% to $67.5 per barrel. Commodities oscillated and rose overall, but their demand prospects were under pressure due to the US dollar's rebound [31] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US economic stagflation pressure is rising. The Fed's褐皮书 showed that businesses were increasingly worried about tariffs, and consumer confidence and inflation expectations on Friday showed obvious stagflation characteristics. The US - China tariff game and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation both had limited progress, and market uncertainty remained high [33][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - There are a series of important economic data releases and events, including the US April Dallas Fed business activity index, US housing price index, China's April official manufacturing PMI, the eurozone's first - quarter GDP, the US April non - farm payrolls, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting [35]