锌产业链周度报告-20250427

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc shows a situation of strong current reality but weak future expectations, with prices oscillating [3] - The smelting profit has been significantly restored, and the subsequent processing fees still tend to rise steadily [5] - The domestic social inventory is positively correlated with zinc prices, while the downstream raw material inventory is negatively correlated with zinc prices. After the zinc price dropped rapidly due to unexpected tariffs, domestic downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory at low prices, resulting in a decrease in social inventory, but this was not driven by actual terminal orders [5] - In May, both supply and demand are weak. It is expected that the social inventory will remain at a low level, which may support the Back structure and near - end prices. However, there is still an expectation of increased supply in the far - end. After the release of liquidity risk, the strategy of shorting on rallies is still recommended. For domestic and foreign zinc prices, LME zinc has fallen more deeply under the influence of the macro - environment, which supports the recovery of the ratio. The long domestic and short foreign arbitrage has a suitable profit - loss ratio, but attention should be paid to the structural loss [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.1.1 Inventory - Zinc ore inventory has rebounded to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is relatively low [8] - LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore region. The total LME inventory has decreased in the short term and is at a medium level compared to historical data of the same period [30] - Bonded area inventory remains stable, and the total global zinc visible inventory has increased [33] 3.1.2 Profit - Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term and at a medium historical level - Smelting profits have recovered and are at a medium historical level - Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - low level compared to the same period [11] 3.1.3开工率 - Zinc concentrate production capacity utilization has rebounded and is at a medium level compared to historical data of the same period - Refined zinc monthly production capacity utilization has rebounded and is at a high level compared to historical data of the same period - Downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc production capacity utilization is stable and at a relatively low historical level [13] 3.2 Trading Aspect 3.2.1 Spot - Spot premiums have declined from high levels - Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight increase in Antwerp. The LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure [15][17] 3.2.2 Spread - The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a B structure, while the far - end is relatively flat [19] 3.2.3 Inventory - Inventory shows a decreasing trend, and the position - to - inventory ratio is relatively high [23] - The domestic long - position inventory ratio of SHFE zinc is relatively high, and the total LME inventory is at a medium level compared to historical data of the same period [23][30] 3.2.4 Others - The domestic position volume is at a relatively high level compared to historical data of the same period [33] 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium level, and the processing fees for domestic and imported ores have rebounded [37] - Ore arrival volume is at a high level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant [38] 3.3.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting profit and production have marginally recovered [39] - Refined zinc imports are at a medium - high historical level [42] 3.4 Zinc Demand 3.4.1 Downstream Processing Materials - Refined zinc consumption is basically the same as the same period last year [47] - Downstream monthly production capacity utilization has marginally recovered and is at a medium - low level compared to historical data of the same period [50] - Downstream raw material inventory and finished product inventory show certain trends [53][56] 3.4.2 Terminal - The power grid shows structural incremental demand [59] 3.5 Overseas Factors - European power prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show certain trends, and the profitability of European zinc smelters is affected by these factors [61]