铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20250427

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current reality of electrolytic aluminum is not particularly weak, but it has shown a marginal weakening compared to last week. In the short term, the price remains relatively firm, but in the future, especially from June to August, downstream consumption is expected to weaken more significantly, and the downside space of aluminum prices may be more worthy of attention. The market's emotional feedback on tariffs has become dull in the short term, but the event may still be in the process of gradual digestion. [3] - Alumina prices are continuing to grind at the bottom, and it is necessary to examine the willingness of funds. Although the micro - fundamentals currently lack sufficient bullish support, the recent stabilization and rebound of the spot side may be partly due to the replenishment of northern electrolytic aluminum production areas, the short - term price support of alumina manufacturers, and the increase in tender prices by middlemen. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - Term Spreads: The term structure of SHFE aluminum is gradually shifting to a C - structure, with the average SMM A00 aluminum premium changing from 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changing from 35 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton. The term B - structure of alumina is narrowing, with the premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changing from 24 yuan/ton to - 7 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina changing from 59 yuan/ton to 28 yuan/ton. [9] - Monthly Spreads: The spreads between near - term contracts of SHFE aluminum are narrowing. [10] - Open Interest and Volume: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract has significantly declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The open interest of the alumina main contract has continued to rise, with a slight decline during the week, and the trading volume of the alumina main contract has also slightly declined during the week. [12] - Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of the SHFE aluminum main contract has slightly decreased but is higher than the same period last year. The open interest - to - inventory ratio of alumina has continued to decline and is at a historically low level. [16] 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - Bauxite: - Port inventory and inventory days have increased synchronously. As of April 25, the weekly import bauxite port inventory of SteelHome has shown a significant increase, with a week - on - week increase of 390,000 tons, and the port inventory days have also increased synchronously. [20] - In March, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises across the country has slightly increased, with a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons, while the bauxite inventory days in alumina plants have decreased. [26] - Port shipments and sea - drifting inventory have both declined significantly. As of April 25, the weekly shipments from Guinea and Australian ports have decreased significantly, and the Australian sea - drifting inventory has also decreased significantly, while the Guinea sea - drifting inventory has slightly increased. [27] - Out - port and in - port volumes have declined significantly. As of April 18, the out - port volumes from Australian and Guinean ports and the in - port volume of bauxite under the SMM caliber have all decreased significantly. [32] - Alumina: - The total national inventory has decreased, but the port inventory has increased significantly. This week, the total alumina inventory has decreased by 70,000 tons week - on - week. The in - plant inventory has decreased, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory has slightly decreased, the port inventory has increased significantly, and the station/on - the - way inventory has slightly decreased. [42] - The full - caliber inventory of阿拉丁 has decreased. As of April 24, the national alumina inventory has decreased by 260,000 tons week - on - week, with a significant decrease in the in - plant inventory, a stable electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory, a significant increase in the port inventory, and a decrease in the yard/station/on - the - way inventory. [46] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The social inventory has continued to decline at a fast pace. As of April 24, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased by 24,000 tons to 664,000 tons, and the de - stocking pace is faster than in previous years. [52] - Aluminum Rods: The spot and in - plant inventories have continued to decline, and the out - port volume has slightly increased. This week, the downstream aluminum rod spot and in - plant inventories have decreased by 33,000 tons and 13,500 tons respectively week - on - week. [53] - Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil: The raw material and finished product inventory ratios have declined significantly. Since March, the finished product inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and plate - foil have decreased significantly, and the raw material inventory ratio of plate - foil has continued to decline, while that of aluminum profiles has remained relatively flat. [55] 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate - Bauxite: Domestic bauxite supply has recovered, but the increase is limited. In March, the domestic bauxite output under both the SteelHome and SMM calibers has increased significantly, and imported bauxite supply is still an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. [60] - Alumina: The capacity utilization rate has continued to decline, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply has not been reversed. As of April 25, the total operating capacity of alumina in the country is 82 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.7 million tons in the weekly operating capacity. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output is 1.594 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons week - on - week, but it is still at a high level in recent years. [63] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The operating capacity has remained at a high level, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased seasonally. As of March, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has continued to remain at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate has significantly recovered due to profit repair. As of April 24, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum under the SteelHome caliber is 840,800 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons week - on - week, and the output level remains at a six - year high. [67] - Downstream Processing: - The output of aluminum profiles and plate - foil has significantly increased. This week, the output of recycled aluminum rods has continued to decline, the output of aluminum rods has increased slightly, and the output of plate - foil has continued to rise. [70] - The operating rate of leading enterprises has slightly increased, providing some micro - level support. This week, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream enterprises has increased by 0.15% to 62.52%. The operating rates of plate - strip and foil have remained flat, the operating rate of aluminum profiles has slightly increased, the operating rate of aluminum cables has remained unchanged, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy has continued to be under pressure, and the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy has slightly increased. [71][75] 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - Alumina: Profits have improved, and attention should be paid to the price of imported ore. This week, the profit of alumina has improved, with the profit of metallurgical - grade alumina under the SteelHome caliber being - 56.9 yuan/ton, and the loss has narrowed. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan have all shown slight losses, while the profit performance of Guangxi is better than that of other regions. [81] - Electrolytic Aluminum: Profits have fully recovered, but uncertain factors are interfering with market expectations. The profits of electrolytic aluminum have fully recovered, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertain factors and interfered with market expectations. [88] - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminum rods has significantly declined, and the downstream processing profit remains at a low level. The weekly processing fee of aluminum rods has decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit remains at a low level. [89] 3.5 Consumption: Import Profit and Loss, Export Profit and Loss, and Apparent Demand - Import Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss of alumina and SHFE aluminum have declined. [97] - Export: In March, the export of aluminum products has significantly recovered. In March 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products has significantly increased, with a month - on - month increase of 98,000 tons. [99] - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand for aluminum rods has significantly recovered, and the monthly output of automobiles has increased significantly. [106]