能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20250427

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market has support at the lower end but limited driving forces. The market for butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber is expected to be mainly fluctuating in the short - term, with cis - butadiene rubber showing support due to relatively low valuation despite a lack of fundamental drivers [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Judgment - Static and Dynamic Valuation of Cis - butadiene Rubber Futures: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,600 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation has shifted slightly upward due to improved butadiene trading. The upper valuation limit for the market is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical lower valuation limit is 10,600 yuan/ton [4] - Butadiene Fundamentals: Asian butadiene prices have rebounded slightly, and the domestic butadiene market has improved. Supply - side开工率 remains high, but the expectation of increased maintenance has risen. Short - term imports are limited, demand has increased, and inventories at production enterprises and ports have declined, strengthening price support [5] - Cis - butadiene Fundamentals: With the decline in the cost side, processing profits have increased, and the supply - side开工率 is expected to rise. Demand has significantly strengthened, and substitution demand supports the total demand. The inventory is at a relatively high level year - on - year, and the current fundamentals have a neutral driving force on synthetic rubber [5] - Cis - butadiene Futures: The fundamentals currently have a neutral driving force on cis - butadiene rubber. However, due to the previous sharp decline, the valuation provides some support. The market is expected to mainly fluctuate in the short - term, and future trends will depend on the fluctuations of crude oil and the rubber sector [6] 3.2 Butadiene Fundamentals - Supply Side - Capacity Expansion: Butadiene capacity has been expanding to match the growth of downstream industries, with the expansion rate and amplitude being slightly faster than that of downstream industries at certain stages [11] - 开工率 and Output: The current开工率 remains high, and the output shows certain trends over time [12][13] - Maintenance Situation: Many enterprises have carried out or are planning maintenance, which will affect the supply [14] - Import and Export: Short - term imports are limited due to the small amount of ocean - going supplies [5] - Demand Side - Capacity of Downstream Industries: The capacities of cis - butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS are expanding, with specific new capacity additions in different years and regions [16][17][24][25][26] - 开工率 and Operation of Downstream Enterprises: The开工率 of downstream enterprises shows different trends, and some enterprises have operation and maintenance plans [21][22][23] - Inventory Side: Butadiene production enterprise inventories and port inventories have both declined, and the short - term port inventory is expected to continue to decrease, strengthening price support [5] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - Cis - butadiene Rubber Supply - Output and开工率: The output and开工率 show certain trends, and some enterprises have production and maintenance plans [36][37] - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit of cis - butadiene rubber production show different trends over time [38][39][40] - Import and Export: The import and export volumes of cis - butadiene rubber show certain trends [41][42] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is at a relatively high level year - on - year, including enterprise inventories, futures inventories, and trader inventories [46][47][48] - Cis - butadiene Rubber Demand - Tire Demand: The inventory and开工率 of tires (full - steel and semi - steel) in Shandong Province show certain trends, which affect the demand for cis - butadiene rubber [49][50]