烧碱：趋势偏弱，PVC：偏弱震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 (Caustic Soda) - The trend of caustic soda is weak. Macroeconomically, the trade war is difficult to end in the short - term. In the second quarter, it is in the off - season of demand, and profit compression and supply reduction are needed to balance supply and demand. Demand from the alumina industry is weak due to low profits and high inventory, and non - aluminum demand is generally weak. Although exports can support caustic soda, the possibility of continuous high - level stocking by foreign buyers is low. On the supply side, there will be new maintenance in May, but manufacturers' loads are generally high due to non - loss of profits. In operation, short positions can be taken for contracts 06 and 07, and reverse spreads can be used for 6 - 9 contracts. [5][7] 2.2 PVC - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. The trade war is difficult to end in the short - term. Fundamentally, the northwest chlor - alkali integration still has profits, and the high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to ease. High production is hard to change in the short term as the maintenance volume in the first quarter was low, and the "using caustic soda to supplement chlorine" in the chlor - alkali industry chain makes large - scale production cuts difficult. High inventory pressure persists, and although exports can relieve the pressure periodically, the sustainability of exports is uncertain due to factors such as anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Domestic demand related to the real estate industry is weak. [8][10] 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Views Overview - Caustic soda is in a weak trend, and PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. The trade war has a negative impact on both products, affecting demand and export situations. [5][8] 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of the cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,400 yuan/ton. The 09 basis of caustic soda strengthens, and the 6 - 9 month spread weakens. The 50 - 32 caustic soda spread is an advanced indicator of the market, currently higher than the evaporation cost, which is positive for caustic soda, but the high - price stocking of 50 - caustic soda is weak. China's caustic soda exports are expected to increase significantly year - on - year, mainly to Indonesia. The export FOB is around 400 - 415 US dollars/dry ton. The arbitrage space between Shandong and South China is small. [13][19][27] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows a decline in production and inventory. This week, the domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 82.1%, a 0.2% decrease from the previous week. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises above 200,000 tons nationwide is 408,500 tons (wet tons), a 3.02% decrease from the previous week and a 3.77% decrease year - on - year. There will be new maintenance in May, but manufacturers' loads are generally high due to non - loss of profits. In 2025, there will be 2.55 million tons of new caustic soda production capacity, a 5.2% increase. However, considering the continuous losses of downstream chlorine - consuming industries, especially PVC, the overall production capacity launch may be lower than expected. [49][51][55] 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina production starts to decline, inventory accumulates, and profits decline rapidly. The price of alumina is falling, and new maintenance and production - reduction capacities are increasing. Under low - profit conditions, the stocking demand for caustic soda weakens. Non - aluminum industries are generally affected by the trade war, with low demand. For example, the paper pulp, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries are all affected, while the water treatment industry has a relatively high year - on - year start - up rate, and the ternary precursor industry has a stable start - up. [85][98][110] 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis changes little, and the 9 - 1 month spread changes little. [128] 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - The start - up of PVC has increased month - on - month but has not reached the level of production cuts in 2023. In April 2025, there were more PVC maintenance plans. There will be 2.1 million tons of new PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025, and although there may be delays, the launch of ethylene - based production capacity is highly certain. The comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali marginal device is about - 870 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the profit of caustic soda in 2025. PVC production enterprises' inventories are accumulating, while social inventories are being depleted. PVC exports increased in January - February, and the number of warehouse receipts will rise again. [133][134][135]