能源化工纸浆周度报告-20250427

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Under the situation of low valuation and weak drivers, pulp prices may continue to fluctuate at a low level. Last week, domestic pulp prices continued to fluctuate at a low level, mainly due to the low willingness of downstream paper mills to replenish inventory and the continuous cancellation of warehouse receipts. In the future, considering the decline in downstream demand, the US dollar price of pulp is gradually entering a price - cut cycle, which has a negative impact on the market. The supply pressure in May may still be high, while the demand for pulp is difficult to improve significantly. Currently, the market valuation is low. In the short - term, investors can focus on the valuation repair opportunities, but the upside space may be limited. In the medium - to - long - term, they can consider short - selling at high prices after the valuation repair [70]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - As of April 24, 2025, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 558,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 41,000 tons (7.9%); the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.347 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons (0.8%); the inventory in Gaolan Port was 83,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,000 tons (3.5%). The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2.106 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons (1.8%) [5]. - Chile's Arauco Company adjusted its April 2025 wood pulp export prices: coniferous pulp Silver Star was at $770/ton, broad - leaf pulp Star was at $560/ton, and natural pulp Venus was at $650/ton [5]. - In March 2025, the import volume of bleached coniferous pulp was 798,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%; the import volume of bleached broad - leaf pulp was 1.47 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5% and a year - on - year increase of 22.2%; the import volume of natural coniferous pulp was 107,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.5% and a year - on - year increase of 15.0%; the import volume of chemimechanical pulp was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8% [5]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - Not provided in the given content 3.2.2 Basis and Monthly Spread - On April 25, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 974 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.42% and a year - on - year increase of 1332.35%; the basis of Russian Needle was 74 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15.91% and a year - on - year increase of 140.66%; the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 900 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 260.00% [13]. - On April 25, 2025, the 05 - 07 monthly spread was 98 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 68.97%; the 05 - 09 monthly spread was 152 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 46.15% [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp has widened this week. On April 25, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 2000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.26% and a year - on - year increase of 233.33%; the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.00% and a year - on - year increase of 214.29% [25]. - The import profit of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp is seriously inverted. On April 25, 2025, the import profit of Silver Star was - 448.35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 69.68%; the import profit of Star was - 340.34 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 47.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.18% [28]. - This week, coniferous pulp prices were weakly stable. On April 25, 2025, the prices of Silver Star, Kalip, Northwood, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle were 6350 yuan/ton, 6350 yuan/ton, 6400 yuan/ton, 6350 yuan/ton, and 5450 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change, and year - on - year decreases of 0.78%, 2.31%, 2.29%, 2.31%, and 11.38% respectively [36]. - The average price of imported broad - leaf pulp has declined. On April 25, 2025, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Bird, and Broad were 4350 yuan/ton, 4300 yuan/ton, 4300 yuan/ton, and 4300 yuan/ton respectively, week - on - week decreases of 2.25%, 2.27%, 2.27%, and 2.27% respectively, and year - on - year decreases of 25.00%, 25.22%, 25.22%, and 20.37% respectively [40]. - On April 25, 2025, the price of Venus was 5450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 0.93%; the price of Kunhe was 3900 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year decrease of 2.50% [45]. 3.3.2 Supply - In February 2025, the European port inventory of pulp decreased slightly month - on - month, and the global pulp shipping volume decreased month - on - month. The European port inventory was 1.441 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69% and a year - on - year increase of 24.44%; the global pulp shipping volume was 4.324 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.70% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.49% [48]. - In March 2025, the import volume of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp decreased, while the import volume of natural and chemimechanical pulp increased. The import volume of natural pulp was 107,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.48% and a year - on - year increase of 15.47%; the import volume of chemimechanical pulp was 133,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.79%; the import volume of coniferous pulp was 797,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.58%; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 1.4699 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.47% and a year - on - year increase of 22.19% [50]. 3.3.3 Demand - Finished paper production capacity utilization rate: On April 25, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 74.88%, 66.40%, 56.83%, and 57.36% respectively, week - on - week changes of - 0.32%, - 1.04%, 0.25%, and 0.39% respectively, and year - on - year changes of - 9.46%, 2.79%, - 8.79%, and - 11.92% respectively [52]. - Finished paper prices: This week, the white cardboard market had no obvious improvement in trading, and some market prices were inverted; the household paper market price continued to be weak, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs; the domestic offset paper market was weakly sorted, with mainly rigid - demand small - order transactions; the domestic coated paper market was weakly operating, and the trading was light [53]. - Finished paper profits: On April 24 - 25, 2025, the profits of white cardboard, household paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 628 yuan/ton, 219.7 yuan/ton, 222.5 yuan/ton, and 902 yuan/ton respectively, week - on - week changes of 2.45%, - 1.88%, 30.50%, and - 5.75% respectively, and year - on - year changes of 29.93%, 343.95%, 1136.11%, and 83.33% respectively. The production profit of offset paper continued to recover [55]. 3.3.4 Inventory - Futures inventory: On April 25, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts for pulp in warehouses was 298,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.97%; the total number of warehouse receipts in factories was 20,400 tons, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 35.36% [60]. - Spot inventory: The inventory of domestic mainstream ports showed an increasing trend. On April 25, 2025, the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.347 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81% and a year - on - year increase of 20.81%; the inventory in Changshu Port was 558,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37%; the inventory in Gaolan Port, Tianjin Port, and Rizhao Port combined was 201,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.61% and a year - on - year increase of 16.86%; the total inventory of the five ports was 2.106 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.79% and a year - on - year increase of 11.08% [66]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - Pulp prices may continue to fluctuate at a low level. In the short - term, investors can focus on the valuation repair opportunities under the reduction of warehouse receipt pressure and the weakening of macro - negative factors, but the upside space may be limited. In the medium - to - long - term, they can consider short - selling at high prices after the valuation repair [70].