供需双弱，硅产业链压力不减

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [4] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon industry chain is under pressure due to weak supply and demand. The production enthusiasm of silicon factories is significantly reduced, and the demand side shows no improvement. [1][2][11][12] - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the marginal changes on the supply - side, such as large - scale production cuts and the resumption of production in Southwest China during the flood season. [1][3][11] - For polysilicon, focus on whether the southwest production capacity resumes production as scheduled during the flood season and whether there are production cut plans for other capacities. [2][3][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2506 contract of industrial silicon increased by 30 yuan/ton to 8780 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 9600 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 8800 yuan/ton. The PS2506 contract of polysilicon increased by 775 yuan/ton to 38390 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 700 yuan/ton to 40300 yuan/ton. [9][10] 3.2 Supply and Demand Are Weak, and the Pressure on the Silicon Industry Chain Remains High - Industrial silicon: The futures price fluctuated this week. Liaoning reduced 1 industrial silicon furnace, and Inner Mongolia reduced 2. The weekly output was 72,400 tons, a decrease of 0.93% month - on - month. The social inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 3800 tons. The demand is weak, and the purchase price of polysilicon manufacturers for industrial silicon powder is between 9400 - 9700 yuan/ton. [11] - Organosilicon: The price dropped significantly this week. The overall operating rate was about 62.4%, an increase of 0.68 pct month - on - month. The weekly output was 41,300 tons, an increase of 0.73% month - on - month, and the inventory decreased by 2.45% month - on - month. The supply - demand imbalance remains unchanged, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [11][12] - Polysilicon: The futures price recovered slightly this week. The spot trading of silicon materials was limited this week, and large - scale transactions are expected after May Day. The production schedule for April is expected to be around 100,000 tons, and the production schedule for May is revised down to around 100,000 tons. As of April 20, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 251,000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons month - on - month. The downstream raw material inventory is about 110,000 tons. The demand is weak, and the spot pressure remains high. [2][12] - Silicon wafers: The price continued to fall this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10, G12R, and G12 models dropped to 1.15, 1.35, and 1.50 yuan/watt respectively. The inventory continued to be reduced in April. Affected by the adjustment of the quota by the association and lower - than - expected demand in May, the production schedule is expected to be reduced to about 54GW. [13] - Battery cells: The price continued to fall this week. The prices of M10, G12N, and G12 battery cells dropped to 0.285, 0.28, and 0.30 yuan/watt respectively. After the demand declined, some specifications of battery cells began to accumulate inventory. [13] - Components: The price continued to fall this week. After the rush - installation period, the price of distributed components dropped rapidly. Affected by the adjustment of the quota by the association and lower - than - expected demand in May, the production schedule is expected to be reduced to about 56GW. [14] 3.3 Investment Recommendations - Industrial silicon: The price has fallen below 9000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions, not to go long on the left - hand side. Consider bottom - fishing on the right - hand side after clear signals such as large - scale production cuts, less - than - expected resumption of production in Southwest China during the flood season, and obvious outflow of warehouse receipts appear. Also, pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories. [3][15] - Polysilicon: After the price drop, pay attention to whether the southwest production capacity resumes production as scheduled during the flood season and whether there are production cut plans for other capacities. Before the large - scale generation of warehouse receipts, the disk is more reasonably valued at a premium for delivery. The operating range of the PS2507 contract may be 35,000 - 39,000 yuan/ton. For the PS2511 contract, it is advisable to value it at a discount for delivery, and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse spread opportunity. [3][15] 3.4 Hot News - On April 23, 2025, Yongchang Silicon Industry's 100,000 - ton hydropower silicon energy - saving and environmental - protection project's No. 4 electric furnace successfully produced the first furnace of industrial silicon. [16] - On April 21, the US imposed anti - dumping and counter -vailing duties on solar cells and components from four Southeast Asian countries. [16] - In the first quarter, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 59.71GW, a year - on - year increase of 30%. [16] 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - Industrial silicon: Includes data on the spot price of oxygen - blown 553 and 99 silicon, weekly production in different regions, social inventory, and sample factory inventory. [18][21][23] - Organosilicon: Covers data on the spot price, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly output of DMC. [28][29] - Polysilicon: Involves data on the spot price, weekly gross profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly output of polysilicon. [32][35] - Silicon wafers: Contains data on the spot price, average net profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly output of silicon wafers. [37][39][41] - Battery cells: Includes data on the spot price, average net profit, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly output of battery cells. [43][45][47] - Components: Covers data on the spot price, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly output of components. [52][57][60]