国泰君安期货金银周报-20250427

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is experiencing a volatile decline with a retracement of bullish sentiment, while silver sees a recovery in risk appetite. The strength analysis shows neutrality for both gold and silver, with price ranges of 760 - 800 yuan/gram for gold and 7900 - 8300 yuan/kilogram for silver. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 103 to 99.5 this week. The long - term narrative of gold remains unchanged, but it has entered an overbought zone technically. The reversal of Trump's stance on trade and the Fed's independence has alleviated market concerns and interrupted the upward trend of gold. The first risk point of gold price decline (end of Sino - US trade friction) has slightly eased, increasing the trading difficulty of gold. It is recommended to consider using option tools for trading allocation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - Price and Price Changes: This week, London gold fell by - 0.86%, and London silver rose by 3.17%. Among domestic varieties, the closing prices and weekly price changes of various gold and silver futures contracts are as follows: for example, the closing price of Shanghai silver 2506 was 8,280 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.47%; the closing price of Shanghai gold 2506 was 787.20 yuan, with a weekly decrease of - 0.48% [3][4]. - Trading Volume and Position Changes: The trading volume of Shanghai silver 2506 increased by 66,534 hands compared to the previous week, and the position decreased by 31,143 hands; the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2506 increased by 321,047 hands, and the position decreased by 29,998 hands. The non - commercial net long positions of COMEX silver futures and options increased by 41,063 hands, while those of COMEX gold decreased by 21,132 hands [4]. - Inventory Changes: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.5 million ounces to 41.71 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 49.8%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 1.2 million ounces to 497.91 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8%. The domestic gold futures inventory decreased by 30 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 13.62 tons to 923 tons [35][37][39]. - Spread Changes: The overseas spot - futures spreads of gold and silver, domestic spot - futures spreads, monthly spreads, and cross - month spreads all showed certain changes. For example, the London spot - COMEX gold main contract spread fell to - 11.44 US dollars/ounce, and the domestic gold spot - futures spread was - 2.27 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [9][16]. 3.2 Gold's Core Drivers - Relationship with Real Interest Rates: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [58]. - Inflation and Retail Sales Performance: The report presents data on US PCE, core PCE, and retail and food service sales, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [63]. - Non - farm Employment Performance: The report shows data on US non - farm employment, including new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rates, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [66]. - Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions: No specific analysis content is provided in the report. - Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index: No specific analysis content is provided in the report. - Fed Rate - cut Probability: The report provides the Fed's rate - cut probability data at different time points, showing that the market expects a high probability of rate cuts in the future [74]. 3.3 Other Indicators - ETF Holdings: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 6.02 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 159.84 tons [46][48]. - COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 4.8% [53].