铅产业链周度报告-20250427

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Weak" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, demand is significantly weak, and prices are expected to run weakly. In the medium - term, lead prices will be under pressure in the second quarter, but the downside space is not expected to be large. It is advisable to adopt a strategy of decreasing high - points in range operations. [7] Summary According to Related Catalogs Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) - Price and Spread: The closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 16,945 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.30%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 was 1,870 dollars, with a decrease of -1.79%. The night - session closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract was 16,855 yuan, with a decrease of -0.53%. The LME lead cash - to - three - month spread was -17.91 dollars last Friday, a decrease of 2.7 dollars compared to the previous week. The near - month to continuous - first contract spread was 5 yuan last Friday, a decrease of 35 yuan compared to the previous week. [8] - Inventory: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 9,849 tons, the total SHFE lead inventory decreased by 11,406 tons, the social inventory decreased by 16,700 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 7,550 tons. The LME lead cancellation warrant ratio was 57.45%, an increase of 14.32% compared to the previous week. [8] - Transaction and Position: The trading volume of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 37,979 lots, an increase of 20,126 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 38,733 lots, an increase of 12,312 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 2,178 lots, a decrease of 154 lots, and the position was 148,527 lots, a decrease of 2,971 lots. [8] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - Lead Concentrate: The import volume of lead concentrate, the production of Chinese lead concentrate, and the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates are presented in the historical data from 2021 - 2025. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang, the operating rate of lead concentrate, the domestic and imported lead concentrate treatment charges (TC), and the profit of lead concentrate are also shown. [24][25] - Primary Lead: The production of primary lead has increased due to the end of maintenance at a smelter in Henan. The historical production and weekly operating rate data from 2021 - 2025 are provided. [7][26] - Recycled Lead: There are significant losses in recycled lead production, and the output has continued to decline marginally. Due to the low output of waste batteries in the off - season and tight raw material supply, the raw material inventory is low. Recently, the production reduction area has expanded, and smelters in many places such as Anhui and Jiangxi have reduced their operations. [7] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, End - User) - Lead - Acid Battery: Consumption is gradually transitioning to the off - season. The inventory of end - user dealers' batteries is at a seasonal high, and restocking is generally restricted, leading to a seasonal increase in the finished - product inventory of battery enterprises. The export volume, operating rate, and inventory days of lead - acid batteries from 2021 - 2025 are presented. [7][32] - End - User: The production of automobiles and motorcycles from 2021 - 2025 is shown, and the actual consumption of lead is also presented. [34]