国泰君安期货锡周报-20250427

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, tin prices showed a volatile trend, with weekly prices stabilizing around 260,000 yuan/ton. The fundamentals of tin are relatively stable, and after the re - evaluation of supply - demand balance, tin may shift from an annual shortage to a tight supply - demand balance. The current equilibrium price of tin may be between 260,000 and 270,000 yuan, and a range - bound trading strategy is recommended [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) - Spot: This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount was 171 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium fell to 1,000 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums were basically flat compared to last week, with a slight increase in Southeast Asian premiums [9][10][15] - Spread: This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from a large backwardation to contango [17][18] - Inventory: This week, the global total tin inventory decreased by 1,579 tons, the domestic social inventory decreased by 72 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 297 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 35 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio rose to 13.7% [22][23][26] - Funds: As of this Friday, the settled funds for SHFE tin were 1.64047 billion yuan, and the funds flowed out in the past 10 days [31][32] - Transaction and Position: This week, the trading volume and open interest of SHFE tin dropped significantly. The trading volume of LME tin continued to decline significantly from the previous high [34][40] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE tin declined slightly [46] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - Tin Ore: In March 2025, 8,323 tons of tin ore were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 4.83% and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 55.44%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained stable at 12,500 yuan/ton, and that for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 8,500 yuan/ton. The import profit - loss level of tin ore increased slightly [50][51] - Smelting: In March 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,080 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. This week, the combined operating rate of enterprises in Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 56.34%, a slight decline from last week [53][55] - Import: In March 2025, 2,101 tons of domestic tin ingots were imported, 1,673 tons were exported, and the net import was 428 tons. Among them, 1,093 tons of tin ingots were imported from Indonesia to China. The latest import profit - loss was - 8,039 yuan/ton [60][62] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) - Consumption Volume: In February 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 13,546 tons, and the actual consumption was 12,662 tons, a slight decline from the previous month [66] - Tin Materials: This week, the downstream processing fees remained stable, and the operating rate of solder enterprises in February increased slightly [68] - End - User Consumption: In December 2024, the output of end - user products generally increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The consumption of household appliances and new energy also showed an upward trend month - on - month and year - on - year. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined, in line with the performance of tin prices [75][77][82]