Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-04-27 10:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, rating it as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in coal prices, with thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao port showing a decline of 2.28% to 2.04% as of April 25, 2025, while supply is expected to contract due to production costs reaching critical levels [1] - The report anticipates a reduction in coal imports due to the rainy season in Indonesia affecting production and transportation, alongside a call from the coal industry association to control low-quality coal imports [1] - The report notes an increase in coal demand, with daily average coal outflow from the four ports in the Bohai Rim rising by 35.99% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in demand despite the traditional off-peak season [1] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses various safety measures and projects in the coal industry, including the commencement of a coal-to-natural gas pipeline project in Xinjiang, which aims to enhance local coal consumption [9] - It also mentions regulatory efforts in Henan province to improve gas prevention in coal mines [9] Price Trends - The report indicates a decline in domestic thermal coal prices, with specific prices reported for various regions, such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, showing decreases of up to 10 CNY/ton [10] - Coking coal prices remained stable, with prices reported for major coking coal regions holding steady [13] Inventory and Supply - The report notes an increase in coal inventory at major power plants, with a total of 14.08 million tons reported, reflecting a 1.08% increase week-on-week [5] - The Bohai Rim port inventory decreased by 2.66% to 31.09 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [22] Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have risen slightly, with an average increase of 0.31% reported [29] - International shipping costs also saw an increase, particularly for coal transportation from Indonesia to China [29] Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2023 to 2026 [35]