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关税预期缓和助推铜铝反弹,黄金仍逢调增配
Changjiang Securities·2025-04-27 10:43

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The report highlights that the gold price experienced significant fluctuations due to expectations of easing trade conflicts, alongside profit-taking from previous rapid increases. This led to adjustments in gold stocks. Short-term corrections are primarily driven by emotional recovery, with a focus on economic data from May and June following tariff conflicts. The narrative of recession is expected to persist [2][6] - Historical trading behavior suggests that central banks or insurance funds may accelerate gold purchases during rapid price corrections. The ongoing trend of de-dollarization is anticipated to stabilize gold price fluctuations [6] - Most gold stocks have seen a valuation recovery of nearly 20 times but remain at historically low levels. The easing of U.S. tariff expectations has contributed to a rebound in industrial metals [6][7] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report maintains a strategy of increasing allocations to gold stocks during corrections, as the valuation of gold stocks is at the lower end of historical cycles. Suggested stocks include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zhaojin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Shandong Gold International [6][7] Industrial Metals - Easing U.S. tariff expectations have led to a rebound in industrial metals, with LME copper rising by 1.9% and aluminum by 3%. SHFE copper and aluminum also saw increases of 1.7% [7][25] - The report notes a significant reduction in copper and aluminum inventories, with copper down 8.5% week-on-week and 4.84% year-on-year, while aluminum decreased by 3.81% week-on-week and 19.64% year-on-year. This is attributed to improved economic expectations and a shift in export trade [7][27] - The long-term outlook suggests that a weaker dollar will elevate the central price of resource commodities, with a focus on leading copper and aluminum stocks that are currently undervalued [7][8] Energy and Minor Metals - The report emphasizes that supply remains a key factor, particularly for rare earths and tungsten. China has implemented export controls on heavy rare earths, which is expected to catalyze supply-side improvements [8][26] - Tungsten supply is expected to remain rigid, with a controlled mining quota of 58,000 tons for 2025, reflecting a 6.5% decrease from the previous year. This is likely to support price increases [8][26] - The report also highlights potential upward price movements for cobalt and nickel due to supply constraints from Congo and Indonesia, respectively [8][26]